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Will Donald Trump be President in June 2021-BEST

Will Donald Trump be President in June 2021-BEST
Category:
Politics
By
NqKe
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Description

That is simple. MOST other bets about Trump are bad because unclear. Let's say Trump uses the military to remain President because of some proof that courts refuse, how will the other bets deal with it? Did he win the Election then? Hard to say. So this is about him being in power, wether people agree or not.
 

YES: Trump is in power, wether he is contested or not isn't relevant. As long as he got power, it's considered a YES, even if Biden claims he is the President.
NO: Trump left and returned to "normal" life. Biden is in office and ruling the country.

Decision Logic

This bet makes it way easier and clear than other bets. If Trump is President of the United States of America on June first, 2021... you either win or lose.

CLOSING IN2021-05-30 22:00:00

6:17PM, Dec 13, 2020 UTC

10:00PM, May 30, 2021 UTC

10:00AM, Jun 1, 2021 UTC

6.120xCurrent Time-Weight Multiplier

Total Volume: 17.93

YES
Volume: 1.183
20.31705512
# of Bets: 40
Payout
ROI
0.00
0%

*assumes current weight and volumes

NO
Volume: 16.75
273.19515239
# of Bets: 113
Payout
ROI
0.00
0%

*assumes current weight and volumes

Discussion

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betterment 7:30PM, Jan 21, 2021 UTC
@Avalon But you said an opposite thing to that here: https://www.betmoose.com/bet/trump-elected-president-in-2020-extended-betting-5177?comments=10 "As a general update; comments are irrelevant to our resolution process. We look primarily at the decision logic and timeline. If there are inconsistencies, we refer to the title and bet description (noting any edits (if any)). "
nsob 5:36PM, Jan 21, 2021 UTC
I think that the bet's intent was to see if Trump managed to stay in power for the full period Jan-Jun. If Trump managed to prevent Biden to be inaugurated, then Biden's side would have to try to revert this until June (for the sake of this bet). Yes would win if Trump was able to maintain power all this time. It happens that he did not.
Avalon 5:35PM, Jan 21, 2021 UTC
Title updated with the word 'still' removed to be consistent with the rest of the prop.
Avalon 5:30PM, Jan 21, 2021 UTC
We do not refer to the description to settle or early-close bets. We look at the decision logic and timeline - those are consistent with the idea that the host would like this open until Jun 1st. In addition, you still have users betting on Yes - this bet is whether Trump will regain power or otherwise be president on June 1st with no possible early resolutions.
jagsbeach 4:57PM, Jan 21, 2021 UTC
The description was clear about the timeline and open to wildly out of the norm scenarios. I’m expecting it’s still fair to dilute one side and shoot alien invasion odds on the other. Not my call tho.
f84jf85hg7g 2:20PM, Jan 21, 2021 UTC
@betterment The description says "still be President" and "remaining in power", so there's no ambiguity. He is no longer President and no longer in power, so even if he somehow took power in the future, the bet still resolved NO at the moment of inauguration.
f84jf85hg7g 2:15PM, Jan 21, 2021 UTC
Aren't any post-inauguration bets invalid? FAQ says "Any bets placed after the outcome was known will be cut off and refunded."
AHamilton 11:03AM, Jan 21, 2021 UTC
@betterment. Correct. Thought of that after I posted. We just locked up our money for no reason...
betterment 7:41AM, Jan 21, 2021 UTC
@AHamilton This is going to get diluted to like 3% lol.
AHamilton 7:27AM, Jan 21, 2021 UTC
Admittedly, when I put the money down, I knew it was a bet not about Trump, but about whether the creator would try to resolve it earlier given the ambiguity. Congrats @praine on piling in late to get a 10% risk-free interest rate.
betterment 7:04AM, Jan 21, 2021 UTC
@Avalon There's a difference between staying in power until June 1st and seizing power between Jan 21st and June 1st until June 1st. It's a bit of a shame it's not possible to even message the creator of a bet to give his input on this ambiguity.
Avalon 5:49AM, Jan 21, 2021 UTC
@betterment Although we agree this prop is a little out there in terms of hypothetical scenarios, the host selected June 1st as the timeline for a reason - not Jan 21st which would have been the actual date to affirm the 'still' in power of the title. That said, the bets intent with the June timeline and the logic as written point to the theoretical scenario where Trump comes back to seize power one way or another.
betterment 3:00AM, Jan 21, 2021 UTC
"Let's say Trump uses the military to remain President because of some proof that courts refuse, how will the other bets deal with it? " - sounds like someone counting on military to help Trump remain in power and the bet was whether it's going to work unlike the so-called failed insurrection.
praine 12:25AM, Jan 21, 2021 UTC
Use your critical thinking skills. Why would this resolve in June if a Biden inauguration would produce a 'No'? It would resolve after the inauguration like AHamilton's and MAGABro's fixed odd's bets if that were the case. February at the latest. This facilitates further miracles, and you may not like that, but that's the way the host created it.
betterment 12:09AM, Jan 21, 2021 UTC
But this bet doesn't say anything about regaining power that Trump lost only about remaining in power, the author's intention seems pretty clear to me. There were 5 weeks for miracles to happen since the bet proposition was created, that time is now over.
praine 10:44PM, Jan 20, 2021 UTC
This is literally about the date and nothing more. Trump can weave in and out of the White House multiple times for what it's worth, all that matters is that he is the president on June 1st. While the betting could have been cut off, the bet itself can't resolve right now. You can think of it as a proposition that could only be resolved as 'Yes' by a miracle, but that's what the host wanted. So having it resolve now is changing the bet, and you can't do that.
betterment 7:37PM, Jan 20, 2021 UTC
@AHamilton Exactly. The entire first paragraph of the description exudes the popular thought of the Trump movement that Trump will come up with a way of remaining in power. "So this is about him remaining in power, wether people agree or not. "
AHamilton 6:19PM, Jan 20, 2021 UTC
"NO: Trump left and returned to "normal" life" He has, already.
AHamilton 6:17PM, Jan 20, 2021 UTC
@betterment, and then it says clearly: "this is about him remaining in power"... he's already no longer remaining in power...
betterment 4:33PM, Jan 20, 2021 UTC
@Avalon @AHamilton @praine The title of the bet is "Will Donald Trump still be President in June 2021". "still" means that for the bet to resolve as YES Trump would need to seize power during Biden's inauguration at the latest or prevent it from happening, and remain in power until June.
praine 8:01AM, Jan 19, 2021 UTC
I don't see why you think he would do that. He made the decision logic the way he wanted it, and it is simple and strong. The betting deadline does point to extreme dilution, which @betterment called out early on, but that's not the host's problem. Especially since he bet on 'Yes'.
AHamilton 1:18AM, Jan 19, 2021 UTC
This is turned into a bet, not on whether Trump will be President, but on whether the creator will seek resolution once Trump's term ends.
AHamilton 6:59AM, Jan 18, 2021 UTC
@NqKe -- if you can file for Leech Protection and early resolution if Biden is inaugurated, would be much appreciated.
Avalon 12:53AM, Jan 18, 2021 UTC
@NqKe would need to file this for early resolution if he wants, which we wouldn't be opposed to in closing this early. However, as per the decision logic and timeline set out, this can in theory stay open right up until June for whoever believes Trump will either remain or otherwise regain power by June 2021. It's NqKe's first prop so it's likely he didn't think about leeching or early resolutions.
AHamilton 6:10AM, Jan 17, 2021 UTC
Can we add in leech protection? If Trump somehow loses power, all bets placed after will be refunded? This practice is standard on this site but assurance would be welcome.
betterment 7:13AM, Jan 16, 2021 UTC
Somewhat relevant bet; if any Patriot trusts that Trump will invoke the Insurrection Act or declare martial law, there's a chance to make money: https://www.betmoose.com/bet/the-insurrection-act-or-martial-law-to-be-enacted-in-us-5391 I can bet more on NO if there's interest.
f84jf85hg7g 7:40AM, Jan 1, 2021 UTC
The wording "still" and "remain" means that this would resolve to No if Trump stops being in power, even if he is then returned to power before June?
888 1:41PM, Dec 19, 2020 UTC
In the scenario that Trump is in power post inauguration, but assassinated between that time and June, how does this bet resolve?
NqKe 2:50AM, Dec 16, 2020 UTC
@cryptoman maybe, maybe not. :-) I know odds are against me, but it's a nice leverage I got there.
cryptoman 9:26AM, Dec 15, 2020 UTC
This is really not going to happen. I will bet just a tiny amount 'cause really I don't want to keep my funds locked for 6 months. these ~0.015 are almost a donation, no offense and no mocking meant with my words.

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