Will Donald Trump be President in June 2021-BEST

Category:

Description

That is simple. MOST other bets about Trump are bad because unclear. Let's say Trump uses the military to remain President because of some proof that courts refuse, how will the other bets deal with it? Did he win the Election then? Hard to say. So this is about him being in power, wether people agree or not.

YES: Trump is in power, wether he is contested or not isn't relevant. As long as he got power, it's considered a YES, even if Biden claims he is the President.
NO: Trump left and returned to "normal" life. Biden is in office and ruling the country.

Decision Logic

This bet makes it way easier and clear than other bets. If Trump is President of the United States of America on June first, 2021... you either win or lose.

7529

CLOSING IN2021-05-30 22:00:00

6:17PM, Dec 13, 2020 UTC

10:00PM, May 30, 2021 UTC

10:00AM, Jun 1, 2021 UTC

RESOLVED AT 5:10PM, Jun 2, 2021 UTC

Total Volume: 17.94

This bet has been resolved!

The outcome was "No"

17.94391741 was split between 117 bettors.

YES

Volume:	1.183
20.31705512
# of Bets:	40

Volume:	16.76
273.22956885
# of Bets:	117

Related see more from Politics

Discussion

AHamilton 6:17PM, Jan 20, 2021 UTC

@betterment, and then it says clearly: "this is about him remaining in power"... he's already no longer remaining in power...

betterment 4:33PM, Jan 20, 2021 UTC

@Avalon @AHamilton @praine The title of the bet is "Will Donald Trump still be President in June 2021". "still" means that for the bet to resolve as YES Trump would need to seize power during Biden's inauguration at the latest or prevent it from happening, and remain in power until June.

praine 8:01AM, Jan 19, 2021 UTC

I don't see why you think he would do that. He made the decision logic the way he wanted it, and it is simple and strong. The betting deadline does point to extreme dilution, which @betterment called out early on, but that's not the host's problem. Especially since he bet on 'Yes'.

AHamilton 1:18AM, Jan 19, 2021 UTC

This is turned into a bet, not on whether Trump will be President, but on whether the creator will seek resolution once Trump's term ends.

AHamilton 6:59AM, Jan 18, 2021 UTC

@NqKe -- if you can file for Leech Protection and early resolution if Biden is inaugurated, would be much appreciated.

Avalon 12:53AM, Jan 18, 2021 UTC

@NqKe would need to file this for early resolution if he wants, which we wouldn't be opposed to in closing this early. However, as per the decision logic and timeline set out, this can in theory stay open right up until June for whoever believes Trump will either remain or otherwise regain power by June 2021. It's NqKe's first prop so it's likely he didn't think about leeching or early resolutions.

AHamilton 6:10AM, Jan 17, 2021 UTC

Can we add in leech protection? If Trump somehow loses power, all bets placed after will be refunded? This practice is standard on this site but assurance would be welcome.

betterment 7:13AM, Jan 16, 2021 UTC

Somewhat relevant bet; if any Patriot trusts that Trump will invoke the Insurrection Act or declare martial law, there's a chance to make money: https://www.betmoose.com/bet/the-insurrection-act-or-martial-law-to-be-enacted-in-us-5391 I can bet more on NO if there's interest.

f84jf85hg7g 7:40AM, Jan 1, 2021 UTC

The wording "still" and "remain" means that this would resolve to No if Trump stops being in power, even if he is then returned to power before June?

888 1:41PM, Dec 19, 2020 UTC

In the scenario that Trump is in power post inauguration, but assassinated between that time and June, how does this bet resolve?

NqKe 2:50AM, Dec 16, 2020 UTC

@cryptoman maybe, maybe not. :-) I know odds are against me, but it's a nice leverage I got there.

cryptoman 9:26AM, Dec 15, 2020 UTC

This is really not going to happen. I will bet just a tiny amount 'cause really I don't want to keep my funds locked for 6 months. these ~0.015 are almost a donation, no offense and no mocking meant with my words.

NqKe 1:38PM, Dec 14, 2020 UTC

d_d it is clear, it's about him reamining in power, called President or Emperor is not relevant here. :)

betterment 11:16PM, Dec 13, 2020 UTC

I'd have bet if there were fixed odds. This will just get insanely diluted + I'd be locking in money for almost half a year.

praine 10:40PM, Dec 13, 2020 UTC

Looks like it's just a question of time, if he will be president on June 1st or not. Simple enough!

d_d 9:44PM, Dec 13, 2020 UTC

And what if he uses the military and crowns himself as "Emperor of the Law-abiding states"? Hopefully It is just a question of time. However technically it won't be the Presidency in the classic sense of the word, so I placed a small bet on NO as a starter and will place much more in the coming days.

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