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Will Joe Biden be the Democrat party nominee in 2024?
Will Joe Biden be the Democrat party nominee in 2024?
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Description
Will Joe Biden be the Democrat party nominee in 2024?
Decision Logic
This bet will resolve YES if the 2024 nominee of the Democrat Party for U.S. president is Joe Biden. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
CLOSING IN2024-03-12 04:00:00
7:54PM, Jul 30, 2022 UTC
4:00AM, Mar 12, 2024 UTC
3:09PM, Mar 19, 2024 UTC
Early Outcome
RESOLVED AT 5:32AM, Mar 20, 2024 UTC
Total Volume: 0.2447
This bet has been resolved!
The outcome was "Yes"
0.24471745 was split between 20 bettors.
YES
| Volume: | 0.1766 |
| # of Bets: | 20 |
NO
| Volume: | 0.0681 |
| # of Bets: | 21 |
Discussion
Avalon
3:30AM, Jul 23, 2024 UTC
For edge cases where a very specific set of criteria needs to be used, it should be defined as such in the logic and timeline. For the 2024 election, you must both set the timeline and the logic, otherwise, you leave it to us for interpretation. "Who will be the next president" is a good example of vague logic. Is it referring to the realistic presumptive president when 90% of votes are counted and the result is within 99.99% accuracy, or are you waiting months longer for a swear-in?
Avalon
3:30AM, Jul 23, 2024 UTC
So based on the very early 2022 timeline and the phrasing in the logic, including the 'replacement of the nominee for any reason', we interpreted this as the presumptive nominee, which again, is the nominee except in a few very rare edge cases, like what happened this week. Joe Biden *did* reach the required delegate count so even the picture used is what we interpreted as the 'spirit' of the bet. Hope that clarifies!
Avalon
3:28AM, Jul 23, 2024 UTC
Well this is an example of why you don't use POST injection on the site in 2022 for an event over 2 years later... it's our fault for allowing it instead of just cancelling it back in Jan 2023 when we were made aware, however, we prompted the resolution in the spirit of the bet using the presumptive nominee status. Realistically the August DNC is a formality and the 'replacement' logic can be ambiguous once the presumptive nominee is selected (and now having to be hastily replaced)
Porky
8:25PM, Jul 21, 2024 UTC
@Avalon this is annoying. Biden was only "presumptive" nominee, and as per today's withdrawal (which happened because of what EVERYONE KNEW for the last four years, other than the most partisan Democrat "he's fine!" shills) was forced to be decided wrongly. My bet was placed precisely because Biden was so blatantly in cognitive decline that I figured he'd be in a nursing home or dead before the end.
garbagebaby
7:17PM, Jul 21, 2024 UTC
Posclemon: Correct, this should have been resolved "NO" based on today's news. The bet logic was intended to cover this scenario, but I was told by Betmoose to resolve the bet earlier than intended. I don't know what else I could have done differently.
I am the least happy about this outcome, as I had the largest bet on "NO." I probably lost more money than anyone.
The money was already disbursed (afaik) so it seems like there's really nothing that can be done about it at this point.
posclegom
6:58PM, Jul 21, 2024 UTC
Hey isn't it a "NO"?!
freedom
6:32PM, Mar 23, 2024 UTC
Makes sense but using your settlement logic, anything that could happen could not apply after Biden secured the nominee status.
Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
So it was forced to settle more less unless the bet logic said anything could happen
garbagebaby
5:32AM, Mar 20, 2024 UTC
Biden will not be formally named the party’s nominee until August at the Democratic National Convention, but he has officially won enough delegates to make him the presumptive nominee per Politico.
IIRC I had intended to wait until August (anything could happen!), but a moderator has requested the bet be resolved. Given the information that we have, it seems to me that it must resolve "YES."
freedom
3:25AM, Mar 13, 2024 UTC
Well just chilled and was checking news yep its done
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/12/biden-cllinches-democratic-presidential-nomination-00146648
Biden officially clinches Democratic nomination for president
The president was always expected to be the nominee. But now he secured “presumptive” status.
President Joe Biden clinched the Democratic presidential nomination, clearing his path to a rematch with Donald Trump in November.
Avalon
4:30AM, Jan 13, 2023 UTC
@sirlanka this one slipped our initial check and was not reported. Some clever users manually create a custom POST request when creating the bet. Normally we delete them but as it is now active, we can leave it as is. The end time is alright so there's no harm.
sirlanka
6:37PM, Jan 11, 2023 UTC
@Avalon Why is this bet open when another one was cancelled for "Maximum bet length is 1 year". Will this one be go until the end or be cancelled?
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