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Will Joe Biden Make It Through 2021?

Will Joe Biden Make It Through 2021?
Category:
Politics
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Description

Will Joe Biden survive 2021? Anything could happen at this point. This is a simple bet. Will Joe Biden be President of the United States on January 1, 2022? This bet is time-weighted so earlier betters will be rewarded for their correct prediction.

Decision Logic

Is Joe Biden President of the United States on 1/1/22? For yes, Biden needs to be the sole acting President on that day. No includes all possible reasons including someone else being active president on January 1st.
The only possible early resolution is "No" if Biden departs or is removed from office permanently by any means.

CLOSING IN2022-01-01 07:55:00

4:04AM, Jan 8, 2021 UTC

7:55AM, Jan 1, 2022 UTC

8:00PM, Jan 1, 2022 UTC

31.970xCurrent Time-Weight Multiplier

Total Volume: 0.0037

YES
Volume: 0.0029
0.11942
# of Bets: 11
Payout
ROI
0.00
0%

*assumes current weight and volumes

NO
Volume: 0.0008
0.033814
# of Bets: 2
Payout
ROI
0.00
0%

*assumes current weight and volumes

Discussion

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Avalon 6:25PM, Feb 8, 2021 UTC
@JeezusChrist - regarding your report - the other bet is a Fixed Odds bet, so it is not a duplicate. Also, there is no issue with copying images from different bets...
JeezusChrist 11:55PM, Jan 30, 2021 UTC
The bet is now correct. If for any reason; incapacitation, impeachment, illness (requiring another 'acting president') death, resignation, removal from office etc. then he would not be sole acting president on 1/1/22 and bet is a NO. If he is sole acting president, bet resolves yes.
Avalon 7:20AM, Jan 23, 2021 UTC
@JeezusChrist Okay, so you're looking at specifically on that day then, with the only possible early resolution being No in the event of him leaving or being removed from office permanently for any reason.
JeezusChrist 12:52PM, Jan 22, 2021 UTC
@Avalon Change logic to: "Is Joe Biden President of the United States on 1/1/22? For yes, Biden needs to be the sole acting President on that day. No includes all possible reasons including someone else being active president on January 1st."
Avalon 10:39PM, Jan 19, 2021 UTC
@Hunch Thank you for the report. The issue with using 'acting president' in the terminology is the VP will be 'acting president' in the event of say a long coma of Biden, but Biden technically remains president. Please ping @JeezusChrist on clarifications on resolutions
Avalon 1:06AM, Jan 18, 2021 UTC
Removed the word 'still'.
JeezusChrist 5:44AM, Jan 11, 2021 UTC
Instead of saying is Biden "still" President of the US on 1/1/22, let's change it to the description wording to be clear. Will he be president on 1/1/22. This way, as long as he IS president, it is a yes. For example, Trump was hospitalized with Covid, but remained president. However if anyone else is president that day, even due to severe sickness, I would assume that is a no.
MooseMe 5:43AM, Jan 11, 2021 UTC
Hmmm. ..... It's not a candy-coated hit bet?
Avalon 7:09PM, Jan 9, 2021 UTC
Updated. The prop is valid just needed to reframe the context. We will assume this prop would cover all potential No scenarios including impeachment, resignation, etc. @JeezusChrist - how will you handle a case where he is hospitalized and not acting/sitting as president however is not discharged in any way either?
JeezusChrist 11:08AM, Jan 9, 2021 UTC
Honest mistake. I did not know. I will request that they allow it to be changed to will Joe Biden be President on Jan 1, 2022? Same bet really.
praine 10:53AM, Jan 9, 2021 UTC
Nah, they're not allowed here either. See Hosting FAQ #3.
f84jf85hg7g 4:49PM, Jan 8, 2021 UTC
Aren't death (hit) markets forbidden? Or is that only PredictIt I'm thinking of?

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