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Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 Presidential election?

Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 Presidential election?
Category:
Politics
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Description

Bet is on whether or not Michelle Obama wins the 2024 Presidential election.

Decision Logic

If Michelle Obama wins the 2024 Presidential election, this bet will resolve YES. If anyone else wins the 2024 Presidential election, this bet will resolve NO. The source for confirming winner of Presidential election will be determined by Wall Street Journal after the November election takes place. If Michelle Obama is not nominated, or backs out after being nominated, this resolves as NO early.

CLOSING IN2024-07-25 04:00:00

7:43AM, Jul 9, 2024 UTC

4:00AM, Jul 25, 2024 UTC

7:21PM, Aug 1, 2024 UTC

Early Outcome

RESOLVED AT 6:52PM, Sep 1, 2024 UTC

Total Volume: 0.0153

This bet has been resolved!

The outcome was "No"

0.01527333 was split between 12 bettors.
YES
Volume:0.0049
0.06828123
# of Bets:2
NO
Volume:0.0103
0.142539
# of Bets:12

Discussion

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praine 4:28PM, Aug 31, 2024 UTC
@Avalon Shouldn't this one be resolved? It has been sitting in the resolution queue since Aug. 1
Avalon 7:21PM, Aug 1, 2024 UTC
We agree and this matches the logic condition. Thanks for the report.
praine 8:28PM, Jul 27, 2024 UTC
Now we have a scenario where she is endorsing Kamala, which (should) mean that she wouldn't be the nominee (taking herself out of the running by endorsing someone else) but I wonder what mods think about betting against her when she doesn't even want to be candidate by her own admission. Seems like betting on known information at this point.
praine 3:34AM, Jul 24, 2024 UTC
Agreed, thank you for noticing this. I was going to raise the issue myself if she didn't succeed at getting the nomination.
Avalon 3:44AM, Jul 23, 2024 UTC
What happens if Michelle chooses not to run and/or is not chosen as the democratic nominee? This needs leech protection. We will assume an early resolution pending her nomination status.

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