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Will Russia take over more/all of Ukraine in 2022?

Will Russia take over more/all of Ukraine in 2022?


In 2014, Russia invaded and annexed Crimea, and was well on its way to conquering all of Ukraine when invading Russian forces shot down MH17 and Putin was forced to back off.
In 2021, the Russian military has built up forces in eastern Ukraine, and accusations have been made that Russian agents were plotting a coup against the existing Ukrainian government. Conversely, Russia has reported irredentist propaganda that Ukraine is going to use chemical weapons against its ethnic-Russian population, and that Ukraine has sent agents into Russia to commit terrorist acts.
Russia has demanded that NATO withdraw from eastern Europe "or else".
Will the Russian takeover of Ukraine, politically or physically or both, be completed in 2022?

Decision Logic

REVERSAL: Russia is rolled back and Ukraine recovers some or all of its former territory.

STATUS QUO: no significant change in the current lines of control, Russia either chooses not to advance or fails (and doesn't retreat)..

ANNEX MORE: Russia invades and controls at least 10% more of Ukraine but does not control the entire territory.

CONQUERED: Russia conquers Ukraine, either annexing the entire country under direct Russian control or installing a replacement government. (A Ukrainian government-in-exile with no actual control may still exist.)

Because of time limits on bets, this bet's end date is December 1, 2022. This bet may resolve early, e.g., if Ukraine is fully taken over by midsummer. Time weighting is on.

CLOSING IN2022-12-01 05:00:00

12:24AM, Dec 23, 2021 UTC

5:00AM, Dec 1, 2022 UTC

6:00AM, Dec 1, 2022 UTC

8.205xCurrent Time-Weight Multiplier

Total Volume: 0.3796

Volume: 0.1003
# of Bets: 2

*assumes current weight and volumes

Volume: 0.0827
# of Bets: 38

*assumes current weight and volumes

Volume: 0.1765
# of Bets: 26

*assumes current weight and volumes

Volume: 0.0201
# of Bets: 8

*assumes current weight and volumes


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Porky 2:22AM, Sep 4, 2022 UTC
Status update, Russia has VERY minor gains in the last 3 months but still gains.
Porky 3:49PM, Aug 11, 2022 UTC
Get in on the juicy Kerch Strait Bridge action while there's still time!!!
Porky 2:26PM, Jun 15, 2022 UTC
@d_d same way Russia seizing control of Crimea was quick -- Russia bought off most of the military commanders and just took over as no defense was mounted. They tried the same this time around but most of the money was apparently stolen by the FSB guys who were supposed to be bribing the Ukrainian generals. :-) Unfortunately, the Ukrainian general in charge of the Kherson area succeeded in handing over that area to Russia, then fled to Russia.
d_d 6:04AM, Jun 15, 2022 UTC
@Porky Ukraine is smth. like 1/3 of Russia in terms of population, it has far better climate, has received colossal financial help from Russia since the 90s. The use of the nuclear weapons is obviously out of question here. A lot of weapons were left there since the Soviet times. So Russia is basically fighting against itself... How it can be quick?
Porky 9:02PM, May 24, 2022 UTC
BTW, current status:
Porky 1:53AM, May 23, 2022 UTC
@nevertoomuch "reversal" means that Russia loses SOME OR ALL of LNR/DNR/Crimea(/Moscow/Vladivostok), not necessarily the entirety. "SQ" would be anywhere from "post-2014 territory" up to "less than 10%" (current situation). Frankly I didn't expect this narrow of a potential outcome; I expected Russia to quickly take the entire country, or at least to quickly take the eastern half that contains the oil and gas fields Putin is trying to steal. I am happily surprised to see Ukraine doing so well.
nevertoomuch 2:47PM, May 13, 2022 UTC
So REVEARSAL means Russia gets kicked out of Crimea and Donbas? STATUS QUO means the Russians control as much of Crimea and Donbas as they did up to the outbreak of the war in february?
Porky 12:22PM, Mar 28, 2022 UTC
@Pruden my intention was that the ending condition in December would be the deciding factor. After all, if we allowed intermediate conditions to rule, there would be no way to reach conquer because Russia would invariably reach the "annex more" stage before ever reaching "conquer".
Pruden 9:00PM, Mar 18, 2022 UTC
How do you determine the "annex more"? It cuold be argued that such a stage has already been reached. What if everything falls back on "status quo" by December?
FreedomOfTrade 2:27PM, Jan 6, 2022 UTC
You can't seriously argue that a land which is clearly Russian should be ruled by a foreign government that hates them. Why should they not live under the same country as their own as their own ethnicity if they so please? Ukrainians have Never EVER been a larger portion of the Crimean population than Russians and everyone knows that whatever the 50%Georgian 50%Jew Stalin came up with to destroy East Europe is BS anyways. He just didn't want to build a bridge for the Gulag inmate transport.
FreedomOfTrade 2:08PM, Jan 6, 2022 UTC
@Porky Bro, even wikipedia admits a majority of Crimeans are Russian. Why would Russians want to live in a poorer, ****tier, foreign version of their own country? Everyone knows whatever the CCCP came up with is BS anyways. In 1994, Russia was not ruled by Russians, but by an oligarch puppet drunkard who knew less about where, when or what he was than Biden does.
Porky 1:49AM, Jan 2, 2022 UTC
@FreedomOfTrade of course Putin ****ing annexed Crimea. The Crimean Peninsula was formally transferred to the Ukrainian SSR back during the bad old days of the USSR, and remained with Ukraine after the breakup of the USSR. Russia even "guaranteed" the existing borders in 1994. If you want to fellate Putin, you're welcome to do so though, just stop lying about it.
FreedomOfTrade 4:34PM, Jan 1, 2022 UTC
Putin didn't annex Crimea. Something like 99.98% of Crimea was Russian, so of course they wanted to be a part of the richer and better off motherland than being ruled by a foreign people. Read up on the history of the peninsula. It's always been Russian.

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