Will Russia take over more/all of Ukraine in 2022?

Category:

Description

In 2014, Russia invaded and annexed Crimea, and was well on its way to conquering all of Ukraine when invading Russian forces shot down MH17 and Putin was forced to back off.
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In 2021, the Russian military has built up forces in eastern Ukraine, and accusations have been made that Russian agents were plotting a coup against the existing Ukrainian government. Conversely, Russia has reported irredentist propaganda that Ukraine is going to use chemical weapons against its ethnic-Russian population, and that Ukraine has sent agents into Russia to commit terrorist acts.
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Russia has demanded that NATO withdraw from eastern Europe "or else".
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Will the Russian takeover of Ukraine, politically or physically or both, be completed in 2022?

Decision Logic

REVERSAL: Russia is rolled back and Ukraine recovers some or all of its former territory.

STATUS QUO: no significant change in the current lines of control, Russia either chooses not to advance or fails (and doesn't retreat)..

ANNEX MORE: Russia invades and controls at least 10% more of Ukraine but does not control the entire territory.

CONQUERED: Russia conquers Ukraine, either annexing the entire country under direct Russian control or installing a replacement government. (A Ukrainian government-in-exile with no actual control may still exist.)

Because of time limits on bets, this bet's end date is December 1, 2022. This bet may resolve early, e.g., if Ukraine is fully taken over by midsummer. Time weighting is on.

4867

CLOSING IN2022-12-01 05:00:00

12:24AM, Dec 23, 2021 UTC

5:00AM, Dec 1, 2022 UTC

6:00AM, Dec 1, 2022 UTC

RESOLVED AT 6:35PM, Dec 1, 2022 UTC

Total Volume: 0.3797

This bet has been resolved!

The outcome was "STATUS QUO"

0.37974118 was split between 38 bettors.

REVERSAL

Volume:	0.1003
3.420962
# of Bets:	2

STATUS QUO

Volume:	0.0827
1.74174391
# of Bets:	38

ANNEX MORE

Volume:	0.1767
5.0199494
# of Bets:	27

CONQUERED

Volume:	0.0201
0.63443647
# of Bets:	8

Related see more from Politics

Discussion

d_d 5:17PM, Jan 10, 2023 UTC

@f84jf85hg7g Political bets should be resolved in strict accordance to the Decision Logic aka 'the rules', they are not resolved based merely on the betting headlines. Those who created Betmoose seem to understand this principle very well presumably from their own betting experience. That's why I have much more trust in their resolution process than in anyone's else in this space. The January timing particular STATUS QUO resolution was a bit questionable, though. Well, it is what it is.

f84jf85hg7g 7:21AM, Jan 10, 2023 UTC

@d_d, No, what settles everything is that the bet was about whether Zelensky would be the TIME Person of the Year, and he was. That's pretty obviously the objectively correct outcome of the bet. Zelensky being a great guy is irrelevant.

d_d 10:33PM, Jan 9, 2023 UTC

@f84jf85hg7g according to TIME's editors Computer was a person in 1982, so The spirit of Ukraine is also a person, and Zelenskiy was not named exclusively. But I doubt that those who were making a decision paid much attention to this detail. CNN has told them that Zelenskiy is a great guy and this settles everything, right?

f84jf85hg7g 10:11PM, Jan 9, 2023 UTC

@d_d Sounds like that other betting site made the right call to me.

d_d 9:38PM, Jan 9, 2023 UTC

the problem with all these Ukrainian betting markets is that they are extremely politicised and serve mostly a propaganda purpose. Another betting site resolved the TIME Person of the year question in favour of Zelenskiy YES, even though specific clause in the rules сlearly stated that he should be named exclusively. "Zelenskiy and the spirit of Ukraine" is not to equal to ''Zelenskiy'' , however for political purposes the question was resolved as YES.

d_d 9:29PM, Jan 9, 2023 UTC

"Russia already had 'control' of Luhansk, Donetsk, and Crimea, or, about 7%." This looks about right, but according to the UK Ministry of Defence in the early December 22 Russia controlled about 18% : https://twitter.com/defencehq/status/1599735393729056771

Avalon 8:45PM, Jan 9, 2023 UTC

https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375 and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian-occupied_territories_of_Ukraine + additional references within. Apologies for the delayed resolution.

Avalon 8:44PM, Jan 9, 2023 UTC

https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375 and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian-occupied_territories_of_Ukraine + additional references within.

Avalon 8:44PM, Jan 9, 2023 UTC

We interpret the "10% more" as 10% more of the total of Ukraine, and we are using the ISW assessed map of Russian control for our verdict. Using this methodology, Russia already had 'control' of Luhansk, Donetsk, and Crimea, or, about 7%. Additional gains were had in 2022, but by our math of land mass area, those gains equated to around 7.4%, or under 10% as per the logic of this bet. Russia currently has approximately 14% control of Ukraine, which is not 10% more of 7% they had before 2022.

Porky 10:01AM, Dec 31, 2022 UTC

Have the admins closed this yet? It still says "forwarded to our moderators".

FreedomOfTrade 4:29PM, Dec 18, 2022 UTC

At the start of this bet on the 23d of December 2021 Russia only controlled Crimea of the lands that were previously under the control of the Ukrainian government. At the end of the bet on the 1st of December 2022 Russia controlled more such land. That's all I'm going to say.

d_d 1:21AM, Dec 10, 2022 UTC

@Porky according to your last comment If Russia only needed to gain +10% more of what they already controlled in December (regardless either it was 4.5% of Ukraine as I think or 7% as dogiv puts it) clearly the Russian Federation controls far more than +100% as of now. So it is even more obvious ANNEX MORE! Waiting for the moderator's verdict on this. @Avalon

kovylin 12:16PM, Dec 9, 2022 UTC

But according to altered definion of STATUS QUO 7,4% < 10%, another problem this estimation is very inaccurate.

kovylin 12:14PM, Dec 9, 2022 UTC

Yes, but Putin gave away Russian passports left and right, payed pensions in Russian Rubles plus some rebel leaders were assasinated because they were not pro-kremlin enough, maybe it wasn't military control, but political and economical. Problem is host altered dictionary defenitions of words. Technically it's not SATUS QUO, because cutting Azov Sea and "liberating" DNR and LNR is a significant change. And controlling Azov Sea is more important than controlling uninhabbited forests and swamps.

d_d 9:20AM, Dec 9, 2022 UTC

Donetsk and Luhansk are heavily populated by Russians. After the third round of the presidential elections in Ukraine in 2014 the people there did not recognise the result as the Ukrainian constitution allowed only 2 rounds of voting. They got out of Kiev’s control. However Putin was playing it safe and didn’t offer much help. So these territories came under control of the self-defence forces made up of locals, but not by Russia itself! it was hardly even an 'occupation' prior to 24/2

kovylin 4:06AM, Dec 9, 2022 UTC

Russian and Ukranian sources, Russian sources color map to make it look bigger, in fact disputed borders almost impossible to measure due active fighting.

kovylin 4:00AM, Dec 9, 2022 UTC

Russian occupied not whole Donetsk Oblast, only part claimed DNR, same for Luhansk only LNR, not occupied part of both Donetsk and Luhansk that still was controlled by Ukraine callerd ORDLO. "Official" annexation doesn't make it legal. But I agree wording is confusing... Annexing not equals controlling, same as "10% more" sounds like 10% delta, not 10% as absolute value. Also error marging can be more than 5% which makes pixel by pixels comparsion not valid, especially when u compare

d_d 12:09AM, Dec 9, 2022 UTC

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian-occupied_territories_of_Ukraine#/media/File:Map_of_Ukraine_with_Cities.png Ukraine (2014 – February 2022), with the annexed Crimea at bottom and two self-proclaimed separatist republics in Donbas at right. not a word about Russian occupation of Donetsk, Crimea is shown as 'annexed by Russia'.

d_d 12:05AM, Dec 9, 2022 UTC

The United Nations General Assembly resolution 73/194, adopted on 17 December 2018, designated Crimea as under "temporary occupation".[27] not a word about Russian occupation of Donetsk and Luhansk ... The Russian occupation of Donetsk and Luhansk took place in 2022

kovylin 10:50AM, Dec 8, 2022 UTC

source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian-occupied_territories_of_Ukraine

kovylin 10:47AM, Dec 8, 2022 UTC

so simple math is here before 42000/603700 = 6.957%, on November 11 (161000-74443)/603700=86557/603700 = 14,33775%. delta = 14,33775 - 6,957 = 7,38075% which makes STATUS QUO winner by November 11 according to the Institute for the Study of War. If u have more recent data and more reliable source please share.

kovylin 10:43AM, Dec 8, 2022 UTC

wikipedia: "Before 2022, Russia occupied 42,000 km2 (16,000 sq mi) of Ukrainian territory (Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk), and occupied an additional 119,000 km2 (46,000 sq mi) in its full-scale invasion by March 2022, a total of 161,000 km2 (62,000 sq mi) or almost 27% of Ukraine's total territory.[7] However, by 11 November, the Institute for the Study of War calculated that Ukrainian forces liberated an area of 74,443 km2 (28,743 sq mi) from Russian occupation.[8]"

d_d 3:11AM, Dec 7, 2022 UTC

Russia began the official entry of troops into the Donbas On February 24, so again, it didn't control more than 4.5% of Ukraine in December 2021

Porky 9:00AM, Dec 6, 2022 UTC

@d_d not understanding your NATO point. Anyway, AFAIK essentially all training of Ukrainian troops is happening outside of Ukraine -- they get flown to, e.g., Britain to get trained, especially on the fancier weapons systems.

d_d 8:48PM, Dec 5, 2022 UTC

NATO instructors are employed in Ukraine but that doesn't mean that all Ukrainian territory is controlled by NATO. The same principle applies to Donetsk and Luhansk Peoples Republics and Russia: The DPR and LPR were officially annexed by Russia on 30 September 2022. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_recognition_of_the_Donetsk_People%27s_Republic_and_the_Luhansk_People%27s_Republic

dogiv 10:32PM, Dec 4, 2022 UTC

Russia controlled over 7% of Ukraine in December 2021, and they now control less than 17%, which makes it status quo as of the end of November.

nevertoomuch 2:43PM, Dec 2, 2022 UTC

@Porky They more than doubled the area of Ukrainian territorry they control. Hence they control not only 10% more, but more than 100% more.

d_d 2:06AM, Dec 2, 2022 UTC

small correction: prior to 2/24 Russia controlled 0.045 X , Ukraine_and _Russian_backed irredentists_combined controlled 0.955 X. As of now Russia formally annexed the Ukrainian territories that were controlled by the irredentists and some other Ukrainian territories as well, this is where 13,5% additional gain comes from.

d_d 1:45AM, Dec 2, 2022 UTC

so if the total area of Ukraine is X, Russia controlled 0.045 X and Ukraine controlled 0.955 X prior to 2/24. As of now Russia controls 0.18X and Ukraine controls 0.82 X. They gained 0.18X - 0.045 X = 0.135X (ADDITIONAL on top of what they already controlled prior to 2/24) > 0.1X

Porky 1:27AM, Dec 2, 2022 UTC

@nevertoomuch @d_d I didn't resolve it incorrectly; the bet was whether they would gain 10% ADDITIONAL on top of what they already controlled prior to 2/24, not whether Russia would have an overall 10%.

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