Will Russia take over more/all of Ukraine in 2022?

Category:

Description

In 2014, Russia invaded and annexed Crimea, and was well on its way to conquering all of Ukraine when invading Russian forces shot down MH17 and Putin was forced to back off.
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In 2021, the Russian military has built up forces in eastern Ukraine, and accusations have been made that Russian agents were plotting a coup against the existing Ukrainian government. Conversely, Russia has reported irredentist propaganda that Ukraine is going to use chemical weapons against its ethnic-Russian population, and that Ukraine has sent agents into Russia to commit terrorist acts.
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Russia has demanded that NATO withdraw from eastern Europe "or else".
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Will the Russian takeover of Ukraine, politically or physically or both, be completed in 2022?

Decision Logic

REVERSAL: Russia is rolled back and Ukraine recovers some or all of its former territory.

STATUS QUO: no significant change in the current lines of control, Russia either chooses not to advance or fails (and doesn't retreat)..

ANNEX MORE: Russia invades and controls at least 10% more of Ukraine but does not control the entire territory.

CONQUERED: Russia conquers Ukraine, either annexing the entire country under direct Russian control or installing a replacement government. (A Ukrainian government-in-exile with no actual control may still exist.)

Because of time limits on bets, this bet's end date is December 1, 2022. This bet may resolve early, e.g., if Ukraine is fully taken over by midsummer. Time weighting is on.

4418

CLOSING IN2022-12-01 05:00:00

12:24AM, Dec 23, 2021 UTC

5:00AM, Dec 1, 2022 UTC

6:00AM, Dec 1, 2022 UTC

RESOLVED AT 6:35PM, Dec 1, 2022 UTC

Total Volume: 0.3797

This bet has been resolved!

The outcome was "STATUS QUO"

0.37974118 was split between 38 bettors.

REVERSAL

Volume:	0.1003
3.420962
# of Bets:	2

STATUS QUO

Volume:	0.0827
1.74174391
# of Bets:	38

ANNEX MORE

Volume:	0.1767
5.0199494
# of Bets:	27

CONQUERED

Volume:	0.0201
0.63443647
# of Bets:	8

Related see more from Politics

Discussion

d_d 11:48PM, Dec 1, 2022 UTC

Russia currently controls about 18 percent of Ukraine: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/world/europe/ukraine-maps.html as of the end of 2021 it only controlled Crimea: https://imgur.com/a/wcmG89U (same source) The total are of Crimea is 4.47295354% of that of Ukraine. (27,000km2 /603,628 km2) STATUS QUO is the wrong answer, of course.

nevertoomuch 10:11PM, Dec 1, 2022 UTC

Still, you resolved the bet wrong. You yourself stated that Russia controlled 44557 sq km new territory additional to the 42000 sq km they controlled before. This is 106% more of Ukraine than in February, far more than the 10% required for the bet to resolve as "annex more".

Porky 7:14PM, Dec 1, 2022 UTC

dogiv "Because of time limits on bets, this bet's end date is December 1, 2022." But if @Avalon insists, we can wait -- I don't foresee the outcome changing, however, since Russia is in seriously bad shape but not bad enough to be driven out of Crimea or Luhansk or Donetsk just yet (for "reversal" to win). Also, Ukraine seems to take a few weeks in between major offensives; their strategy has been to destroy Russian supply lines and wait for the Russians to run out of ammunition.

Porky 7:07PM, Dec 1, 2022 UTC

5of4: just to note, the original way I'd planned to resolve this was that I expected it all to be over in a few weeks! (And probably betting on whether the Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be complete by the end of summer.) Having failed miserably at that, the maps from the UK MoD had enough detail to resolve it by doing flood-fill of occupied/free territories into blocks of colors and then doing a pixel count and comparing the three counts (previously occupied, newly occupied, still free).

dogiv 7:04PM, Dec 1, 2022 UTC

Uh, I hate to argue against my own interest here, but 2022 isn't over yet? Shouldn't this resolve in January?

Porky 6:34PM, Dec 1, 2022 UTC

4of4: sources: https://www.statista.com/chart/28748/ukraine-territory-control-status-distribution/ MoD 11/11: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FhSjIE4XkAQLNAp.jpg MoD 11/14: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FhhnqfUXEAIYKe5.jpg MoD 11/30: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FizqUUvXEAE1-0J.jpg

Porky 6:33PM, Dec 1, 2022 UTC

3of4: In the last day or two, there has been minimal movement; Russia claims to have moved into one destroyed village near Bakhmut, but that's about it. Net result, Russia only controls about 7% more territory on 12/1 than it controlled on 2/24. This falls below the "ANNEX MORE" threshold of 10% and far below the "CONQUERED" of 100%. However, Russia hasn't suffered "REVERSAL". Therefore "STATUS QUO" is the winner.

Porky 6:30PM, Dec 1, 2022 UTC

2of4: British Ministry of Defense maps lag very slightly in order to avoid revealing current fighting. Maps are available from 11/11, 11/14, and 11/30 as well as other days later in the month; Russia had withdrawn from Kherson north of the river around during the first half of November, as shown by the map of the 14th. See https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ (wrong spelling but that's on them).

Porky 6:21PM, Dec 1, 2022 UTC

1of4: Source is a combination of Statista and the UK Ministry of Defense (correct spelling!) maps of assessed control of territory. Statista: as of Nov. 12, Russia controlled 44,557 sq.km. "new" territory plus the 42,000 sq.km. it controlled on February 24th. Total area of Ukraine is 603,550 sq.km.

Porky 10:51PM, Nov 19, 2022 UTC

@freedom biting my toenails here!

freedom 11:20AM, Nov 18, 2022 UTC

@Porky This is a tight race :)

Porky 3:44PM, Nov 15, 2022 UTC

Going by the numbers from this map, 70,000km has been added to the occupied territories since February 24th, which is still into "annex more". This looks like it could come down to inches if Ukraine has another big recapture.

Porky 3:39PM, Nov 15, 2022 UTC

@freedom et alia here is a current map https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1592055085391319042

Porky 2:11AM, Nov 7, 2022 UTC

@freedom it is just barely over the edge into "annex more", it will fall under that if Kherson falls to Ukraine by December 1st.

freedom 9:33AM, Nov 1, 2022 UTC

I have to admit I am bloody confused about where the bet is even at right now % wise

Porky 9:48PM, Oct 22, 2022 UTC

@bpratt012 Russia controlled 7% of Ukraine prior to Feb 23 2022 according to the NEXTA tweet posted below on May 24. So if your 17.5% figure is correct they are borderline into "annex more" territory. If they lose Kherson they would fall below into the "status quo" range.

bpratt012 10:31PM, Oct 21, 2022 UTC

Where would this end today? Russia currently controls around 17.5% of Ukraine but how much were they supposedly controlling before? 10%?

Porky 10:04AM, Oct 4, 2022 UTC

I have to admit, I'm looking forward to losing this bet. Never would have guessed. @dogiv I hope you and Anonymous win on "reversal". :-)

Porky 2:22AM, Sep 4, 2022 UTC

Status update, Russia has VERY minor gains in the last 3 months but still gains. https://nitter.it/DefMon3/status/1566048747171241985 https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1566048747171241985

Porky 3:49PM, Aug 11, 2022 UTC

Get in on the juicy Kerch Strait Bridge action while there's still time!!! https://www.betmoose.com/bet/wil-the-kerch-strait-bridge-to-crimea-get-blown-up-5841

Porky 2:26PM, Jun 15, 2022 UTC

@d_d same way Russia seizing control of Crimea was quick -- Russia bought off most of the military commanders and just took over as no defense was mounted. They tried the same this time around but most of the money was apparently stolen by the FSB guys who were supposed to be bribing the Ukrainian generals. :-) Unfortunately, the Ukrainian general in charge of the Kherson area succeeded in handing over that area to Russia, then fled to Russia.

d_d 6:04AM, Jun 15, 2022 UTC

@Porky Ukraine is smth. like 1/3 of Russia in terms of population, it has far better climate, has received colossal financial help from Russia since the 90s. The use of the nuclear weapons is obviously out of question here. A lot of weapons were left there since the Soviet times. So Russia is basically fighting against itself... How it can be quick?

Porky 9:02PM, May 24, 2022 UTC

BTW, current status: https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1529019276249681920

Porky 1:53AM, May 23, 2022 UTC

@nevertoomuch "reversal" means that Russia loses SOME OR ALL of LNR/DNR/Crimea(/Moscow/Vladivostok), not necessarily the entirety. "SQ" would be anywhere from "post-2014 territory" up to "less than 10%" (current situation). Frankly I didn't expect this narrow of a potential outcome; I expected Russia to quickly take the entire country, or at least to quickly take the eastern half that contains the oil and gas fields Putin is trying to steal. I am happily surprised to see Ukraine doing so well.

nevertoomuch 2:47PM, May 13, 2022 UTC

So REVEARSAL means Russia gets kicked out of Crimea and Donbas? STATUS QUO means the Russians control as much of Crimea and Donbas as they did up to the outbreak of the war in february?

Porky 12:22PM, Mar 28, 2022 UTC

@Pruden my intention was that the ending condition in December would be the deciding factor. After all, if we allowed intermediate conditions to rule, there would be no way to reach conquer because Russia would invariably reach the "annex more" stage before ever reaching "conquer".

Pruden 9:00PM, Mar 18, 2022 UTC

How do you determine the "annex more"? It cuold be argued that such a stage has already been reached. What if everything falls back on "status quo" by December?

FreedomOfTrade 2:27PM, Jan 6, 2022 UTC

You can't seriously argue that a land which is clearly Russian should be ruled by a foreign government that hates them. Why should they not live under the same country as their own as their own ethnicity if they so please? Ukrainians have Never EVER been a larger portion of the Crimean population than Russians and everyone knows that whatever the 50%Georgian 50%Jew Stalin came up with to destroy East Europe is BS anyways. He just didn't want to build a bridge for the Gulag inmate transport.

FreedomOfTrade 2:08PM, Jan 6, 2022 UTC

@Porky Bro, even wikipedia admits a majority of Crimeans are Russian. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimea#Demographics Why would Russians want to live in a poorer, ****tier, foreign version of their own country? Everyone knows whatever the CCCP came up with is BS anyways. In 1994, Russia was not ruled by Russians, but by an oligarch puppet drunkard who knew less about where, when or what he was than Biden does.

Porky 1:49AM, Jan 2, 2022 UTC

@FreedomOfTrade of course Putin ****ing annexed Crimea. The Crimean Peninsula was formally transferred to the Ukrainian SSR back during the bad old days of the USSR, and remained with Ukraine after the breakup of the USSR. Russia even "guaranteed" the existing borders in 1994. If you want to fellate Putin, you're welcome to do so though, just stop lying about it.

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