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Will Russia use WMDs to terrorize Ukraine & the world?

Will Russia use WMDs to terrorize Ukraine & the world?
Category:
Politics
By
Porky
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Description

Russia, and specifically genocidal communist maniac former KGB agent Vladimir Putin, has repeatedly threatened to use nuclear weapons if Russia loses "its" territory in Ukraine. Multiple other governments have warned Russia not to use chemical weapons or nuclear weapons. Russia has tried to save face by provoking radiological disasters at Ukrainian nuclear power plants, widely believed to be an attempt to draw in NATO -- whether to widen the war or to give an excuse for withdrawing from their self-made disaster, no one is sure.

Decision Logic

CHEMICAL - Russia uses chemical weapons in Ukraine, either on troops or on civilian population.

NUCLEAR OR RADIOLOGICAL - Russia detonates or tries to detonate a nuclear weapon (includes failures due to incompetence or stupidity); OR Russia is involved in causing a containment failure at Zaporizhzhia or Chernobyl or another nuclear power plant.

BIOLOGICAL - Putin goes full psycho on the entire planet.

NONE - Putin is all bluster, or maybe someone in the military had enough sense to refuse.

Notes: "NUCLEAR" includes the possibility of a nuclear test within Russia, and also the possibility of nuking other countries such as Britain/Germany. Early outcome possible. FIRST TYPE USED is the outcome even if multiple are later used.

CLOSING IN2023-09-02 04:55:00

6:42PM, Sep 21, 2022 UTC

4:55AM, Sep 2, 2023 UTC

4:55AM, Sep 23, 2023 UTC

26.310xCurrent Time-Weight Multiplier

Total Volume: 0.0057

NUCLEAR OR RADIOLOGICAL
Volume: 0.0003
0.012653
# of Bets: 2
Payout
ROI
0.00
0%

*assumes current weight and volumes

CHEMICAL
Volume: 0.0003
0.012653
# of Bets: 2
Payout
ROI
0.00
0%

*assumes current weight and volumes

BIOLOGICAL
Volume: 0.0000
0
# of Bets: 0
Payout
ROI
0.00
0%

*assumes current weight and volumes

NONE
Volume: 0.0051
0.212394
# of Bets: 2
Payout
ROI
0.00
0%

*assumes current weight and volumes

Discussion

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Porky 3:54PM, Jan 12, 2023 UTC
Thanks, @Avalon, I'm not complaining. If it never happens (and I lose 0.0004), so much the better all around!
Avalon 5:11PM, Jan 9, 2023 UTC
@Porky We considered the evidence however we have trouble with deciding this a 'chemical attack'. The Oct 12 drone shootdown just confirms tear-gas or equivalent 'chemicals', however, there was no attack. The Sep 23rd was unidentified. It is in our view that we need to see clear chemical warfare use by Russia in order to resolve this for the spirit of the bet. There needs to be a clear intent of 'attack' as well as a chemical agent. Keep the reports coming!
Porky 10:47PM, Nov 19, 2022 UTC
@Avalon Forbes confirming it happened, and says there's been a more recent shootdown of a Russian drone that had another chemical grenade on it. (The author says it's not "chloropicrin" but rather CS, which seems to be correct according to a few "name that grenade" websites.) https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2022/11/01/yes-these-are-chemical-weapons-why-russias-tear-gas-bombings-in-ukraine-matter/
Porky 11:34AM, Oct 15, 2022 UTC
Fine by me; I'd like to end up being wrong, but I don't think I will be.
Avalon 7:05PM, Oct 13, 2022 UTC
Hi @Porky - we would require a more certain proof of chemical 'weapons' being used. Pravda is a state-sponsored publication and the news surrounding this event is sparse. The outcomes specified are mostly illegal by Geneva convention so most reports of any will be sensationalized. 'Unknown substances assumed to be chemical' for example do not qualify as definitive.
Porky 6:16AM, Oct 8, 2022 UTC
It looks like this is confirmed as of October 3: https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/10/3/7370163/ "On 24 September, Operational Command Pivden (South) reported that containers with a poisonous substance, presumably a K-51 chloropicrin grenade, were dropped on Ukrainian combat positions; Russian forces used a UAV for that."
Porky 7:23PM, Sep 24, 2022 UTC
Possible winner is "chemical", awaiting verification: https://twitter.com/MalcontentmentT/status/1573530050095632384 "Operational Command South accuses Russian forces of using Chloropicrin, on the list of chemical warfare pulmonary agents and a World War I chemical weapon, on troops in Kherson in a serious escalation, and the most specific accusation of using chemical agents yet"

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