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Will SCOTUS strike down 15 week abortion ban? (Dobbs)

Will SCOTUS strike down 15 week abortion ban? (Dobbs)


In Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization (No. 19-1392), the Supreme Court will consider the constitutionality of a Mississippi statute that bans, subject to very limited exception, abortion of fetus with a gestational age of greater than 15 weeks.

Under existing precedent (Roe v. Wade & Casey v. Planned Parenthood), a law that prohibits abortion before fetal viability (which is after 15 weeks) is unconstitutional. A federal district court and the US Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit invalidated Mississippi's law and entered an injunction prohibiting its enforcement. Now the case is before the Supreme Court.

Decision Logic

This wager will resolve to NO if the Supreme Court issues a decision that has the effect of overturning the lower court decisions and injunction that prohibits Mississippi from enforcing its 15 week abortion ban statute.

In short, if the Court issues a decision or order that allows Mississippi to enforce the law as written -- if it will be illegal to perform an abortion on a fetus with a gestational age of 15 weeks, except in cases of fetal abnormality and medical emergency -- then the wager will resolve NO.

If the Court affirms the lower courts OR takes any other action which leaves intact the injunction/prohibits Mississippi from enforcing the current ban prior to the end date, then this wager will resolve YES.

CLOSING IN2022-05-02 04:00:00

4:51AM, Nov 30, 2021 UTC

4:00AM, May 2, 2022 UTC

5:51PM, Jun 11, 2022 UTC

Early Outcome

RESOLVED AT 2:45PM, Jun 14, 2022 UTC

Total Volume: 0.0192

This bet has been resolved!

The outcome was "No"

0.01922792 was split between 6 bettors.
# of Bets:2
# of Bets:6


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f84jf85hg7g 7:57PM, Jun 24, 2022 UTC
Welp, the United States was nice while it lasted. See y'all in Civil War 2.0
Porky 2:31PM, Jun 24, 2022 UTC
Cue the riots, arsons, vandalism, and probably murders. . . .
Porky 2:28PM, Jun 24, 2022 UTC
By "No wins" I mean that the "No" side is the side that won. :-) As was expected since the leaked draft of the Alito opinion in early May.
Porky 2:26PM, Jun 24, 2022 UTC
No wins, Alito's opinion was issued.
Avalon 4:37AM, Jun 22, 2022 UTC
It is in our view that this can be settled as No. The way the logic is written (and the intent), we are looking for a specific outcome (Yes/No based on an action taken by the SCOTUS). No action/delay in proceedings is not considered an outcome for the purpose of this bet. Although the final vote has not occurred, we have enough evidence (as per leaked draft) to assume what it will be. As per a users' request, we can leave this prop open until the final vote in case of any changes or surprises.
Porky 5:39PM, May 3, 2022 UTC
Just to note, the Supreme Court has now confirmed that the leak is genuine. It looks like this was tweeted about two hours ago:
Porky 5:05PM, May 3, 2022 UTC
Considering the leaked opinion, should this bet be considered resolved, and if so, should the last bet be cancelled? The leak happened some time on May 2; this SCOTUSblog article about it was published at 10:17pm on May 2nd, hours after the leak.
bill_b 9:59PM, Feb 10, 2022 UTC
To confirm ---- no matter if the ban is lifted or not - if SCOTUS doesn't take the case then it resolves as a "YES"?
MrnobodylifeA 2:12AM, Jan 10, 2022 UTC
New Bitcoin Bet -
stoop_daddy 3:30PM, Nov 30, 2021 UTC
Tell @PolyMarketHQ and @Kalshi to put this market up

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