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Will the ESA James Webb Space Telescope launch succeed?

Will the ESA James Webb Space Telescope launch succeed?


On December 21, 2021, the ESA is supposed to use an Ariane 5 rocket to hurl NASA's James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) into space. The ESA has a long launch record of massive ****ups and explosions and hilarity. Will the ESA blow it again this time?

Resolution will be performed after the JWST is on station and reported functioning nominally, without launch damage. To account for possible delays plus six weeks of transit and positioning time, this will be targeted for 4/1/2022, a bit over three months after the currently scheduled launch date.

Bets close a few days before launch on the 17th, just in case it blows up during fueling or a pressure test or whatever. Note: bets are UNWEIGHTED by time.

Decision Logic

The outcome is YES if an undamaged JWST is placed into an orbit which allows it to proceed to its final station at Earth-Sun L2.

The outcome is NO if the Ariane launch blows up, delivers the JWST to an unusable orbit, lobs the telescope into the ocean, gets blown up by terrorists, rams space debris, fails to separate, damages the JWST rendering it unusable, or otherwise fails in any way to achieve a suitable orbit from which the intact JWST can later be sent on its merry way to E-S L2.

Launch delays are considered ordinary expected events and merely delay resolution, they aren't YES or NO.

Resolution will be 4/1/22, ~3 months after launch, or earlier if reported that the JWST is on station and functional.

CLOSING IN2022-02-01 05:00:00

8:59AM, Nov 1, 2021 UTC

5:00AM, Feb 1, 2022 UTC

7:04PM, Feb 4, 2022 UTC

Early Outcome

RESOLVED AT 3:36AM, Feb 15, 2022 UTC

Total Volume: 0.0003

This bet has been resolved!

The outcome was "Yes"

0.0003 was split between 2 bettors.
# of Bets:2
# of Bets:1


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Porky 3:38AM, Feb 15, 2022 UTC
@ScootyPoot Sorry, I didn't realize this still hadn't settled! I just resolved it.
Porky 10:33AM, Jan 24, 2022 UTC
@f84jf85hg7g or at least @ScootyPoot 's! I just reread my conditions and realized I goofed on the orbital insertion stuff, so he's clearly won. Hitting report and annoying the admins to send him some sats early.
f84jf85hg7g 4:58PM, Jan 21, 2022 UTC
@Porky Your loss is humanity's gain :)
Porky 11:27PM, Jan 20, 2022 UTC
The 23rd is my last chance! :-(
Porky 12:42AM, Jan 11, 2022 UTC
It's looking grim for my Bitcoin balance. So far no launch damage has been announced.
Porky 12:21PM, Dec 25, 2021 UTC
Porky 12:15PM, Dec 25, 2021 UTC
Launching any minute now!

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