Will the Federal Government shut down on May 1st?

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Description

Democrats and Republicans must reach a compromise on a new spending bill by May 1st, 2017, when the current funding period expires. If they can't reach a compromise, the federal government may shut down on that date (i.e. federal employees won't be paid), as it did it in 2013 from October 1st-16th.

Edit: If the shutdown starts before May 1st, bet will resolve as YES.

Decision Logic

Bet will resolve as YES if the federal government is "shut down" on May 1, 2017, with at least 500,000 federal employees being placed on paid or unpaid furlough or otherwise prevented from reporting to work for the entirety of that day, due to insufficient enacted spending authority. Bet will resolve as NO if the government doesn't shut down.

Betting ends April 20th. Outcome on May 1st.

N.B. In 2013, 800 000 workers were put on furlough during the shutdown, so 500, 000 is a fair over/under I think.