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Will the right win a majority in Madrid (Spain)?

Will the right win a majority in Madrid (Spain)?
Category:
Politics
By
Pruden
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Description

The world watches Madrid and its hands-off response to the pandemic, which has thrusted the president, Ayuso, into the spotlight. Will she repeat? 5 million people are called to vote on the parliament for Madrid region on May 4th.

Isabel Díaz Ayuso's party (PP, center-right) is aiming for a plurality and getting a second term, maybe with the support of Vox (right). "Comunismo o Libertad", they say.

On the left are PSOE, Más Madrid and Podemos, which count with Pablo Iglesias. He stepped down from vice-prime minister to stoke support for his party. The big wildcard is the 5% electoral threshold: Podemos and Vox are right above it and Ciudadanos (LibDem) is just below it on polls ("encuestas").

Did I mention there could be a draw?

Decision Logic

The Asamblea de Madrid has 136 seats, proportionally allocated among parties with more than 5% of the total vote. If PP+Vox obtain over 68, bet will resolve to "Yes".
If they obtain less than 68 seats, "No".
If exactly 68, "Draw".

Probably the outcome will be known within election night, but mail-in ballots could have the last word.

Major newspaper El País will be used as reference.

CLOSING IN2021-05-05 04:00:00

11:00AM, Apr 29, 2021 UTC

4:00AM, May 5, 2021 UTC

5:51PM, May 5, 2021 UTC

Early Outcome

RESOLVED AT 9:13PM, May 5, 2021 UTC

Total Volume: 0.0038

This bet has been resolved!

The outcome was "Yes"

0.0038 was split between 2 bettors.
Yes
Volume:0.0028
0.004516
# of Bets:2
No
Volume:0.0000
0
# of Bets:0
Draw
Volume:0.0010
0.001645
# of Bets:1

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