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Will Trump concede that Biden is President by Jan 15?

Will Trump concede that Biden is President by Jan 15?
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Politics
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Description

Bet is on whether or not Trump concedes that Biden won and is going to be the next President on or before January 15, 2021.

Decision Logic

Any public Trump statement confirmed by press to have been made by Trump on or before Jan 15, 2020 that says that Biden is the next President is sufficient to resolve for Yes. This includes statements acknowledging Biden won that also claim he cheated and/or that he won in a rigged election. For example, if Trump says "I have fought all the legal battles to overturn the corrupt election, but there are no more options on the table. Therefore, Biden will be the next President of the United States"bet resolves for Yes. If Trump refuses to acknowledge Biden is President or refers to him only as a fake President, this bet resolves in favor of No. All bets made on day of announcement are going to be cancelled.

CLOSING IN2021-01-08 05:00:00

4:18PM, Dec 15, 2020 UTC

5:00AM, Jan 8, 2021 UTC

7:45PM, Jan 9, 2021 UTC

Early Outcome

RESOLVED AT 5:12AM, Jan 11, 2021 UTC

Total Volume: 0.0326

This bet has been resolved!

The outcome was "Yes"

0.03264382 was split between 3 bettors.
YES
Volume:0.0103
0.0354125
# of Bets:3
NO
Volume:0.0223
0.05281659
# of Bets:12

Discussion

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AHamilton 7:53AM, Jan 16, 2021 UTC
Fair enough on this one...
GarySpivey 10:10PM, Jan 15, 2021 UTC
its unclear if "a statement made by Trump that says Biden is the next President" requires him to literally say "Biden is the next President." That vague first sentence is clarified by other sentences that say Yes also wins for “statements acknowledging Biden won” and that No wins “If Trump refuses to acknowledge Biden is President.” Use of the word "acknowledges" allows for a reference to "the Biden Administration" to be sufficient to win.
oracleon 9:46PM, Jan 15, 2021 UTC
I agree Gary, but I think you are muddying up the issue. Very simply, the first sentence of the rule logic was satisfied by Trump's recent reference to "the Biden administration."
GarySpivey 8:22PM, Jan 14, 2021 UTC
A No resolution would also require you to conclude that Trump did not acknowledge that Biden would be President by claiming that the 25th Amendment “will haunt” Biden (instead of “may haunt” or “could potentially haunt”) even though the 25th Amendment applies only to Presidents facing removal due to claims about their cognitive decline.
GarySpivey 8:20PM, Jan 14, 2021 UTC
Resolving this in favor of No despite these 2 statements requires conclusion that Trump’s quote re “Biden Administration” was not a reference to the Biden Presidential Administration but rather a reference to another unknown Biden Administration that has never otherwise been confirmed or acknowledged.
GarySpivey 8:18PM, Jan 14, 2021 UTC
Webster dictionary defines “acknowledge” as “to recognize the status of.” At the very least, Trump has “acknowledged” that Biden will be next president by stating that (1) “a new administration will be inaugurated on Jan 20th”… and (2) that, “the 25th Amendment…will come back to haunt Joe Biden and the Biden administration.”
GarySpivey 8:15PM, Jan 14, 2021 UTC
Important point - Bet logic says Yes wins not just for a direct statement that “Biden is next president” but also for statements where Trump “acknowledges” that Biden is the President. Specifically, Rule Logic confirms Yes wins for “statements acknowledging Biden won that also claim he cheated” and that No wins “If Trump refuses to acknowledge Biden is President.”
oracleon 5:16AM, Jan 14, 2021 UTC
@GarySpivey Right, but I mean even just the conference yesterday by itself. Donald Trump conceded that there will be a "Biden administration." He hasn't conceded an election loss to Biden, in so many words, but he has conceded that Biden will head up the next administration which this discussion and the decision logic suggest are sufficient for a Yes resolution.
GarySpivey 5:12AM, Jan 14, 2021 UTC
Good point oracleon. Trump has publicly said that he will coordinate a peaceful transfer of power with the next presidential administration. Then in the press conference Trump warned that the 25th Amendment (which solely provides process for the removal of PRESIDENT from office for mental incapacity) will come back to haunt the Biden administration (vs saying it "potentially" could). Taken together Trump confirmed new presidential admin starts on Jan 20 and that Biden will be President.
oracleon 2:34AM, Jan 14, 2021 UTC
@Avalon Yesterday at a videotaped press conference, Trump stated "the 25th amendment is of zero risk to me, but will come back to haunt Joe Biden and the Biden administration." That satisfies the logic of the prop: "Any public Trump statement confirmed by press to have been made by Trump on or before Jan 15, 2020 that says that Biden is the next President is sufficient to resolve for Yes." Trump has now publicly conceded that there will be a Biden administration, by name.
Avalon 7:32PM, Jan 13, 2021 UTC
@GarySpivey correct, and he did not issue any statements admitting Biden being the next president to our knowledge.
GarySpivey 9:05AM, Jan 12, 2021 UTC
Rules do not require Trump to admit defeat, rules only require Trump to admit that Biden is the next President.
Avalon 9:29PM, Jan 11, 2021 UTC
We're going to hold on to this one until Jan 15th as although Trump did say 'a new administration will be inaugurated", it does not specify Biden as per the logic of this prop, nor does Trump admit defeat.
oracleon 4:29PM, Jan 11, 2021 UTC
He conceded that the election results were finally certified by Congress. I believe he is referring to the election for US president. Congress certified Biden’s win, not anybody else’s.
AHamilton 9:22AM, Jan 11, 2021 UTC
@oracleon, the link says "Without mentioning Biden by name, Trump said in a nearly three-minute video that “a new administration will be inaugurated on January 20th." Where does he say Biden won?
AHamilton 7:47AM, Jan 11, 2021 UTC
I believe you Oracleon, but can you provide the exact quote where he says that Biden, specifically, will be President. I.e., the decision logic states that: "that says that Biden is the next President".
oracleon 6:24PM, Jan 8, 2021 UTC
Here is a news story with a link to the video: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/07/trump-for-first-time-acknowledges-new-administration-will-take-office-jan-20.html
oracleon 6:23PM, Jan 8, 2021 UTC
Resolve? "My campaign vigorously pursued every legal avenue to contest the election results. My only goal was to ensure the integrity of the vote. In so doing, I was fighting to defend American democracy. I continue to strongly believe that we must reform our election laws to verify the identity and eligibility of all voters and to ensure faith and confidence in all future elections. Now, Congress has certified the results and new administration will be inaugurated on January 20."

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