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Will Trump Control the White House on April 1st, 2021?
Will Trump Control the White House on April 1st, 2021?
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Description
There is great concern over the 2020 U.S. election, with both sides accusing the other of tampering with the voting process. This is isn't a bet on who won the U.S. presidential election of 2020, as there is already uncertainty over the election results, it might not be possible to know the true winner. As such this is a bet on if Donald Trump will be in control of the White House on April 1st, 2021 at 4:00 AM (GMT)
Decision Logic
If Donald Trump is known to be in control of the White House on April 1st, 2021 then Yes will be selected as the winner. Multiple news sites will be checked to see if he is still residing in the White House.
CLOSING IN2021-04-01 03:55:00
8:00PM, Aug 24, 2020 UTC
3:55AM, Apr 1, 2021 UTC
3:55AM, Apr 3, 2021 UTC
RESOLVED AT 10:55PM, Apr 4, 2021 UTC
Total Volume: 2.608
This bet has been resolved!
The outcome was "No"
2.60844576 was split between 33 bettors.
YES
| Volume: | 0.1539 |
| # of Bets: | 17 |
NO
| Volume: | 2.455 |
| # of Bets: | 33 |
Discussion
cryptoman
4:02PM, Apr 1, 2021 UTC
@6jarjar6 all is ok
6jarjar6
7:45PM, Mar 26, 2021 UTC
@cryptoman let us know if it goes through
cryptoman
8:04AM, Mar 25, 2021 UTC
@AHamilton, Thanks for your reassuring words. I am glad to confirm what you say: everything has been solved. I use this platform since 2015 and so far I just had this minor issue, but it has been promptly solved.
All is ok and I can't complain.
AHamilton
7:22AM, Mar 25, 2021 UTC
@cryptoman, I've withdrawn huge amounts of bitcoin from this site multiple times, never with any trouble. I wouldn't worry at all, it will be processed soon.
cryptoman
8:42AM, Mar 24, 2021 UTC
Hopefully I'll get an answer like this one
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=645747.msg55368368#msg55368368
cryptoman
7:42AM, Mar 24, 2021 UTC
Soon this bet will expire and I expect that some of you will be willing to withdraw funds from this site.
Please let me know if you'll be able to as a significant withdrawal I requested is "queued" since 2 days and I'm getting no answer from the support.
That's sad as I've always promoted and supported this site. 2 days to process a withdrawal, without an answer, is too much.
6jarjar6
7:58PM, Feb 10, 2021 UTC
@McBryde it would not be declared null and void if no one is living there. Trump would still not be president if no one is, in case there was factions vying physically over control of the presidency I added in the decision logic about the person living in the White House. The military wouldn't let the wrong president be in the White House. No one is president it will be a NO result.
McBryde
3:38PM, Feb 10, 2021 UTC
My response @6jarjar6 with due respect:
1
• What would happen if it turns out that nobody is living there by then - would the bet be declared null & void?
• To my mind, this was essentially about Trump being in control of the White House at that date.
In your comment (“Only if Trump controls the white House and is living there will it be YES result”) I consider that you specify something which wasn’t presented within the three areas of this bet’s character.
McBryde
3:37PM, Feb 10, 2021 UTC
2…..Argument breakdown.
Title:
-Trump’s control [no reference to residing there]
Description:
-Trump’s control [no reference to residing there]
Decision Logic:
-1st sentence (Trump’s control) is clear which terms satisfy YES.
McBryde
3:37PM, Feb 10, 2021 UTC
3….. -2nd sentence is reference to him living there, but is not phrased as to be understood as an additional factor in determining YES.
The sentence doesn’t specify his living in the White House as an additional requirement for YES.
It merely indicates that there will be intense attention on who is in control, and that to the media that would probably be indicated by who is living in the White House at that time.
McBryde
3:37PM, Feb 10, 2021 UTC
4…. But there is no emphasis that this element is part of YES. I did not read it as being inserted as a requirement - rather, it read as an indicator. The idea is implied, rather than spelt out. So I took it to not be a part of the specific requirement of the bet.
In that respect, I consider that your recent comment added to the nature of the bet, rather than clarifying it.
6jarjar6
11:43PM, Feb 7, 2021 UTC
@McBryde I never said "that anything other than Biden living there and still being president ... will qualify as a YES." This bets about Trump controlling the White House. If Kamala is president on the date it will be a NO result. If Pence is president it will be a NO result. Only if Trump controls the white House and is living there will it be YES result.
McBryde
9:31AM, Feb 5, 2021 UTC
But this: "Multiple news sites will be checked to see if he is still residing in the White House" implies Trump has to be living there. What you just wrote is clear, though - that anything other than Biden living there and still being president ... will qualify as a YES. That would cover the possibility that Trump might choose not to use the Whitehouse any more.
McBryde
9:31AM, Feb 5, 2021 UTC
But this: "Multiple news sites will be checked to see if he is still residing in the White House" implies Trump has to be living there. What you just wrote is clear, though - that anything other than Biden living there and still being president ... will qualify as a YES. That would cover the possibility that Trump might choose not to use the Whitehouse any more.
6jarjar6
8:09PM, Feb 4, 2021 UTC
@McBryde in control of the White House means physically controlling the White House. If Biden lives there and is still president that obviously means Trump is not in control of the White House.
d_d
6:25PM, Feb 4, 2021 UTC
The Curse of Tippecanoe is the supposed pattern of deaths in office of presidents of the United States who won the elections in years that are evenly divisible by 20, since the 1840 election.
d_d
6:24PM, Feb 4, 2021 UTC
According to a legend, Te***seh made a prediction that frightened Americans for decades to come. The prediction was that every American president elected on a year divisible by twenty will die before finishing his term.
cryptoman
2:53PM, Feb 4, 2021 UTC
@McBryde I kindly invite you and your reliable info source to put money where your mouths are.
So many "reliable" theories about Trump coming back, so few MAGAs ready to risk their money...
McBryde
3:48PM, Feb 3, 2021 UTC
@6jarjar6: It depends on what could be interpreted from 'control the Whitehouse'. If it's up to him what to do with the actual building/location, then I think it's safe to argue that, should he be in power but operating from, say Florida, he would still be in control of the Whitehouse.
McBryde
3:17PM, Feb 3, 2021 UTC
There's fairly reliable info that the Whitehouse won't be where Trump will be if/when he comes to be reinstated as president. So, even if he does get re-elected, the wording here is likely to throw things off somewhat.
cryptoman
4:30PM, Jan 28, 2021 UTC
MAGAs seem to be running out of steam...
cryptoman
3:13PM, Jan 26, 2021 UTC
@d_d "unconventional constitutional mechanism" ... ok, well... maybe. who knows. I guess we'll see it rather soon.
d_d
3:08PM, Jan 26, 2021 UTC
@cryptoman If one assumes that Biden took power in some really shady way, perhaps his administration can be removed early and some unconventional constitutional mechanism can be at play here.
cryptoman
11:12AM, Jan 26, 2021 UTC
@d_d I wonder what makes you think that a new election is going to take place in next 2 months.
must be the effects of infodemic.
In case, feel free to bet on yes outcome.
d_d
10:48AM, Jan 26, 2021 UTC
@cryptoman I wonder whether a snap election can be called in a two-party system. And what can be the main obstacle for what.
cryptoman
4:11PM, Jan 20, 2021 UTC
I really wonder who could bet YES at this point...
betterment
7:14AM, Jan 16, 2021 UTC
Somewhat relevant bet; if any Patriot trusts that Trump will invoke the Insurrection Act or declare martial law, there's a chance to make money: https://www.betmoose.com/bet/the-insurrection-act-or-martial-law-to-be-enacted-in-us-5391
I can bet more on NO if there's interest.
6jarjar6
11:16PM, Dec 28, 2020 UTC
@888 No it will not. April 1st will be the date that is looked at.
888
4:43PM, Dec 24, 2020 UTC
In the event Trump is in "control" of the White House post inauguration, does this bet resolve early?
6jarjar6
11:22PM, Nov 18, 2020 UTC
@vegai No it will not be a yes just because it is April Fools.
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