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Will Trump Pardon Himself in 2018?

Will Trump Pardon Himself in 2018?


Constitutional scholars say that a US president can pardon himself for past federal crimes.

No US president has ever attempted to pardon himself. Would Trump dare to break all the established rules?

Update 21 July 2017: The Washington Post quotes an anonymous source: “Trump has asked his advisers about his power to pardon aides, family members and even himself ....”

Update 28 Oct 2017: Bloomberg quotes an anonymous source as saying that the Special Counsel Robert Mueller's top legal counsel Michael Dreeben has been researching past presidential pardons and determining what, if any, limits exist.

Decision Logic

We will rely on the consensus of major media reports from news sources such as the BBC, CNN, Reuters, Associated Press, and the major US-based TV networks.

Early resolution is possible if the major media report a Yes result. Only an actual completed self-pardon by Trump, not a mere announcement of intent, will be considered a Yes resolution.

To minimize the risk of insider bets based on leaks, all Yes bets placed later than two weeks before a Yes resolution will be refunded.

Since you can only make bets 1 year into the future the bet will be settled december 11 2018. If Trump pardons in december 2017 that will also count as a Yes.

8:02PM, Dec 11, 2017 UTC

10:55PM, Dec 4, 2018 UTC

10:55PM, Dec 11, 2018 UTC


This bet has been cancelled!

Reason: Only one option had bets placed on it. Next time, try sharing it with others!

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