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Bernie Sanders To Be Democratic Nominee

Bernie Sanders To Be Democratic Nominee


The Democratic Party presidential primaries, 2016, will take place within the Democratic Party prior to the 2016 general election to determine the parties nominee for the Presidency of the United States. Incumbent president and 2012 nominee Barack Obama is ineligible for reelection, due to term limits.

Decision Logic

Winner will be determined after the 2016 Democratic Party presidential primaries, to be held country-wide, starting in Iowa on Feb 1 2016.
The Betting Deadline will be "Super Tuesday", Mar 1 2016.
If the winner of the 2016 Democratic Party presidential primaries is not mathematically/statistically clear by the Outcome Date, then all bets are returned.
Admin Edit Feb 24 Outcome date will be pushed forward until enough information is known for resolution to the benefit of all bettors.

CLOSING IN2016-03-01 05:05:00

2:23PM, Jun 3, 2015 UTC

5:05AM, Mar 1, 2016 UTC

3:55AM, Jun 4, 2016 UTC

RESOLVED AT 2:50PM, Jun 14, 2016 UTC

Total Volume: 5.682

This bet has been resolved!

The outcome was "No"

5.68196206 was split between 47 bettors.
# of Bets:35
# of Bets:47


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boozed22 4:38PM, Jul 12, 2016 UTC
Ok..So Bernie just abdicated, so can I get my money now?
Avalon 2:36AM, Jun 18, 2016 UTC
@boozed22 some bettors requested we hold the payout until the outcome is confirmed. In the current US political climate, it is still actually plausible Bernie Sanders may become the nominee. We don't want to pay this out incorrectly if there's still a technical chance for it to happen.
boozed22 2:55PM, Jun 17, 2016 UTC
when is this going to payout?? it's been resolved already
bill_b 1:36PM, Jun 15, 2016 UTC
@Avalon, sounds fair, I have no issues with that. Like protus said, you never know what might happen, it's been crazy .
Avalon 10:26PM, Jun 14, 2016 UTC
Please note some bettors are not yet confident in this outcome which is fair, so we're going to hold payout for now.
protus 3:05PM, Jun 14, 2016 UTC
You never know what might happen in this freakshow of campaign season. Bernie probably won't be the nominee, but then again Julian Assange is about to release apparently damning emails about Hillary. So you never know if she'll get indicted or not.
bill_b 2:49PM, Jun 14, 2016 UTC
Upon further reflection, Clinton won the popular vote, won the most states and has the most delegates, and currently has, by far, the most superdelegates pledged. In the spirit of the bet, I will close. If you disagree, then you have 24 hours to report it. If reported, then it will remain open until July 25th.
bill_b 7:32PM, Jun 13, 2016 UTC
Although a near certainty, Bernie has not resigned yet, so technically until the superdelegate counts are official, Clinton has not officially won the nomination. There are 630 superdelegates and the current difference between Clinton and Sanders in pledged delegates is 375 ( 581 of those superdelegates have unofficially pledged their support to Clinton, but those are non-binding until the convention (July 25, 2016).
Avalon 8:21AM, Jun 12, 2016 UTC
Ask the host first, he can resolve this. @bill_b
Jamphone 2:26PM, Jun 11, 2016 UTC
Can we call this one? Based on the last primaries, he can't win. @Avalon
Avalon 6:44AM, Feb 17, 2016 UTC
Lastly, Fixed Odds betting is available on BetMoose, and you're all welcome to use it if the time-weighted parimutuel bets are not your cup of tea.
Avalon 6:42AM, Feb 17, 2016 UTC
Due to the great discussion here about our betting algorithms, here is a calculator to help demonstrate how the weighting functions:!Op9gBAoY!Uf0UF_UKvQOWqE9F8oxa6jwhFmnlgSZ2JXjZfizLQMQ
Avalon 4:46AM, Feb 17, 2016 UTC
@rtflsna Not sure I understand what exactly you mean by the "4 months away" comment - please clarify?   @praine - Good catch, see my previous comment. We have actually seen this multiple times before and are collecting stats which we hope to make publicly available to give more transparency to future bettors. The time-weight multiplier is demonstrating that it is working well here.
Avalon 4:40AM, Feb 17, 2016 UTC
@antinatalist - The arbitrage scenario you're seeing here (specifically, the 0.25BTC bets on Jul 4th) is very possible, but only in retrospect, and only at the right volume. If you bet 50BTC on Yes right now, that early 'Yes' bet's total payout will plummet. You will find it is very difficult to replicate as you might end up putting in either too little or too much volume, or simply at the wrong time. Great observation by the way.
Avalon 4:37AM, Feb 17, 2016 UTC
@antinatalist - you are not considering that those odds change depending on how you bet sequentially. If you place 10BTC on 'Yes', your odds on 'No' go up, and all previous bettor payouts are adjusted as well. The early bettors have every reason to profit more from late bettors as the information on this real-world event gets considerably more accurate as time passes.
rtflsna 2:43AM, Feb 16, 2016 UTC
@praine i've either noticed that or thought trying to arb by betting early on here had potential.. I generally don't like having my money tied up for a 'long' time though. But good observation
praine 10:14PM, Feb 15, 2016 UTC
Here's something fun. Look at how the time multiplier created arbitrage for the early bettors. 7:21 AM, Jul 4, 2015 and 9:15 AM, Jul 4, 2015. Total output is .5 (.25 on yes and .25 on no). No wins 0.57360182 and Yes wins 0.74307789, so there's guaranteed profit with any outcome. Of course they didn't know how popular this proposition would be, so this probably wouldn't be a good strategy from the outset, but I thought it was an interesting observation.
rtflsna 7:06PM, Feb 12, 2016 UTC
agreed with @antinatalist the time multiplier deal is not efficient. i understand the incentive needed to bet early, but its around 4 months away from the outcome date and no sane person should bet on it right now.
sirlanka 12:02AM, Feb 4, 2016 UTC
If it is that easy I recomend betting early on all bets out there. You fail to consider some of the risks of betting early. For example, if you bet YES early on this bet and Sanders quits his run for president. Or if you bet early and someone else makes a huge bet on the same side. Of course it looks like a good idea to bet early when nothing special happens. Betting late is only an advantage when new information has come out.
antinatalist 10:57PM, Feb 3, 2016 UTC
I agree with @gruenetee. Something is not right. At the moment betting on Sanders gives you up to 25% return, against up to 10%. Normal bookie - 500% and 25% respectively. It reminds me of a ponzi - early bettors profit from late suckers (who can't even do basic maths), because no sane person would bet on this. This "time - weight multiplier" is weird. I can't find anyone else using it. Where is the multiplier coming from, why betting half year earlier gives you 33x, but not 333x, 3333x?
Avalon 2:08PM, Jan 26, 2016 UTC
@gruenetee @sirlanka in addition to the time multiplier, the other big thing he's missing is the fact after he makes one of those bets, it will significantly raise the payout of the other as the potential winnings of the opposite side rise.
Jamphone 4:21PM, Jan 25, 2016 UTC
I'm about 50% of the "No" votes - and I bet early
sirlanka 3:28PM, Jan 25, 2016 UTC
@gruenetee It´s all about how you use the site. I have made 1 Bitcoin profit on this site which would be imossible for me on Fairlay. You are correct that it is dumb to bet on Sanders now. But when someone does the profit does not go to the site. It goes to people who made good early bets. In some type of bets it is good to bet late because you have more information than when the bet was created. On this bet Sanders has about the same chance to win as when the bet was created.
gruenetee 1:13PM, Jan 25, 2016 UTC
Yes I have read that. But at the end of the day, all I just want to know how much I can win, after fees and all that stuff. On this site, if I bet Ƀ1 on Bernie, I am told that I will get back Ƀ1.31306. On, I am told that I will get back Ƀ5.531. The discrepancy is bizarrely huge. And there's no question I'll just go to the other site (unless there's some big hidden trick there, but it doesn't look like it).
sirlanka 11:34AM, Jan 25, 2016 UTC
The fee is 3%
sirlanka 11:32AM, Jan 25, 2016 UTC
@gruenetee Yes, you miss something, the Time Multiplier. If you bet early you get full value. If you bet late your bet value decreases because you have an information advantage over the people who bet 6 months ago. Not all bets has this Time Weight multiplier, but most do. You can read more in the FAQ, go to Betting - "7. What does the Time Multiplier do?"
gruenetee 10:55AM, Jan 25, 2016 UTC
The transaction costs/fees seem extremely high? Or am I missing something? Here are my calculations. Right now, if I bet Ƀ1 on "Yes", I get back Ƀ1.31306. And if I bet Ƀ1 on "No", I get back Ƀ1.0907. So if I bet Ƀ1 on "Yes" and Ƀ1 on "No" (hence covering the universe of possible events), I lose either Ƀ0.68694 or Ƀ0.9093. That's 34.347% or 45.465% of my original stake of Ƀ2. That seems incredibly high. Or am I missing something?
Jamphone 9:58PM, Jul 29, 2015 UTC
I'm amazed there are such good odds on Sanders... 42% chance for Sanders?
dhorks 12:31AM, Jul 2, 2015 UTC
I'm betting no because if I'm wrong I'll be so overjoyed I won't care about the money.

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