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2019-nCoV death rate: Feb 2020

2019-nCoV death rate: Feb 2020
Category:
Other
By
sanko
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Description

Predict new coronavirus mortality rate as of 02/29/2020. Today it is 362/(362+489)=42.5%

Decision Logic

We will use "total deaths" and "total recovered" from https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 taken at 13:00 UTC 02/29/2020. Then calculate (total deaths)/(total deaths+ total recovered) percent.

CLOSING IN2020-02-15 03:00:00

9:04AM, Feb 3, 2020 UTC

3:00AM, Feb 15, 2020 UTC

4:00PM, Feb 29, 2020 UTC

RESOLVED AT 8:04PM, Feb 29, 2020 UTC

Total Volume: 0.0799

This bet has been resolved!

The outcome was "10% or less"

0.07989957 was split between 7 bettors.
50% or more
Volume:0.0001
0.00023
# of Bets:1
30% to 50%
Volume:0.0101
0.024091
# of Bets:2
20% to 30%
Volume:0.0028
0.0061817
# of Bets:3
10% to 20%
Volume:0.0257
0.03812138
# of Bets:7
10% or less
Volume:0.0412
0.063939
# of Bets:7

Discussion

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sanko 8:06PM, Feb 29, 2020 UTC
2941 deaths, 39761 recovered 6.9% death rate

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