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Will 2024 be the warmest year on record?

Will 2024 be the warmest year on record?
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Description

The Earth's global surface temperature varies from year to year. Some believe there is an increasing trend due to human carbon emissions, while others say the climate is unaffected by human activity and we will soon experience another ice age.

Regardless, will NASA's GISTEMP Surface Temperature Analysis record 2024 as being the warmest year on record?

Decision Logic

YES: The global temperature Annual Average Anomaly for 2024 is greater than that for all prior recorded and published years (1880-2023), as rounded to the nearest hundredth of a degree Celsius, according to the first-published such data by NASA (GISTEMP Land-Ocean Temperature Index: No_Smoothing), at https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/. In the event that NASA revises their estimates of past years, the first-published LOTI table that includes 2024 will determine the outcome.

NO: The Anomaly is less than or equal to the previous record.

CLOSING IN2025-01-01 04:55:00

2:56AM, Jan 7, 2024 UTC

4:55AM, Jan 1, 2025 UTC

4:55AM, Jan 22, 2025 UTC

38.330xCurrent Time-Weight Multiplier

Total Volume: 0.0008

YES
Volume: 0.0006
0.024666
# of Bets: 2
Payout
ROI
0.00
0%

*assumes current weight and volumes

NO
Volume: 0.0002
0.008842
# of Bets: 2
Payout
ROI
0.00
0%

*assumes current weight and volumes

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