How much someone will pay for this Old Master painting?

Category:

Description

http://www.sothebys.com/en/auctions/ecatalogue/2017/old-masters-l17030/lot.154.html

For the sake of simplicity lets calculate the average of the lower and upper bounds of the estimate (10000+15000)/2 = 12500 GBP

Then, basically, two mutually exclusive outcomes are possible:

1) Price realized =< 125000 GBP
2) Price realized > 12500 GBP

Decision Logic

The price realized (Hammer Price with Buyer's Premium) will be seen at Sotheby's site, after the auction ends. If the painting remains unsold, the bet placed on the outcome 1) wins.

Art,
Old Master

1380

CLOSING IN2017-05-03 20:00:00

11:17PM, Apr 26, 2017 UTC

8:00PM, May 3, 2017 UTC

7:28PM, May 4, 2017 UTC

Early Outcome

RESOLVED AT 7:33PM, May 4, 2017 UTC

Total Volume: 0.0150

This bet has been resolved!

The outcome was "The price realized =< 12500 £"

0.015 was split between 1 bettors.

The price realized =< 12500 £

Volume:	0.0100
0.01
# of Bets:	1

The price realized > 12500 £

Volume:	0.0050
0.005
# of Bets:	1

Related see more from Other

Discussion

d_d 2:01PM, Apr 30, 2017 UTC

This bet is mainly intended for gamblers and not for some insider manipulators. A certain feedback loop between this prediction market and the outcome of the auction is possible, of course. Anyway If one has some reasons to think that it is the genuine Luca Giordano, the estimate is probably low.

praine 11:21AM, Apr 30, 2017 UTC

There is no profit to be had currently. If you want to put 10 BTC on "No", I'll make sure I win, though. :-)

d_d 11:02AM, Apr 30, 2017 UTC

so why don't you bid yourself ? Don't you think that ~ 0.01 BTC is a small profit for this kind of operation ?

praine 9:18AM, Apr 30, 2017 UTC

Yeah, as you said, someone could just bet "Yes" and bid on the painting to guarantee the outcome. Especially if "No" has a significant amount of volume.

d_d 3:37PM, Apr 27, 2017 UTC

Nope! It is funny that you asked me about it, cause the question Are you going to bid for this painting ? is also possible and perhaps even warranted, but unfortunately there is no way for me to prove my real intentions... Neverthelss, I hope that these types of bets may be interesting for those who love ART and gambling... I'll probably chose a painting in a more expensive category next time.

Mirh 2:39PM, Apr 27, 2017 UTC

Is this your painting?

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