SilkRoad coins will be sold above market value

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Description

According to http://www.usmarshals.gov/assets/2014/bitcoins/ there will be an auction of 9 "Series A" blocks of 3000 BTC each and one "Series B" block with the remaining balance. This bet is about the potential of at least one "Series A" blocks being sold for more USD per BTC than the daily high on bitcoinaverage.com.

Decision Logic

If the price of 3000 times the "high" column of https://api.bitcoinaverage.com/history/USD/per_day_all_time_history.csv on the 2014-06-27 line is lower than the price for the most expensive "Series A" block of BTC auctioned, this bet is considered "YES".

In other words, if one of the blocks is sold above the highest market price as seen on June 27, resolves as "Yes".

If the price paid for the block is exactly the same or lower than on the open market, it will be a "NO".

9012

10:27AM, Jun 13, 2014 UTC

9:55PM, Jun 26, 2014 UTC

4:00PM, Jul 2, 2014 UTC

CANCELLED

This bet has been cancelled!

Reason: Outcome not known within reasonable time. Please move your bets to https://www.betmoose.com/bet/silkroad-coins-were-sold-above-market-value-547 for long-term resolution if interested.

YES

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# of Bets:	0

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Discussion

Sukrim 9:20AM, Jul 10, 2014 UTC

Bet created, see https://www.betmoose.com/bet/silkroad-coins-were-sold-above-market-value-547. Sorry for the mess, I definitely expected more price leaks than what actually happened, but such is life...

Sukrim 9:11AM, Jul 10, 2014 UTC

Ok, I'll post an identical bet expiring in the end of 2015 with betting open until the beginning of August 2014 (so people can redo their current bets if they want) - that way it should be easy to resolve early as soon as credible information surfaces.

betmoosejonny 3:04PM, Jul 9, 2014 UTC

As it is now, one full week past the stated resolution time, I also believe that a bet refund would be the best way to go.

nathonas 10:54AM, Jul 9, 2014 UTC

Refund the bet imo. Can make a new one with a long outcome.

Avalon 5:58AM, Jul 9, 2014 UTC

Not looking too good for this.. I'm legitimately surprised out of 60 something bidders only ~3 have stepped up to reveal their bids. Just out of curiosity; is there anyone here who actually WANTS this to cancel today or tomorrow? If everyone here is determined to settle the bet correctly (instead of cancel) then we can leave it up. Otherwise, Sukrim perhaps you can remake this bet but with a 1yr till outcome timeline in case we find out later for anyone who wants to get in on that.

Sukrim 10:28PM, Jul 5, 2014 UTC

Depends on your time zone probably, it is very clearly outlined which data will be used for price decisions on the "market price" side and has been from the beginning. Anyone got news on auction prices? I didn't find anything even remotely credible besides 2-3 people who bid far below market. :-/

chakudaku 6:49PM, Jul 5, 2014 UTC

The market price as of 6/27/14 was way above $600.

freedom 8:43AM, Jul 3, 2014 UTC

Sounds fair Settle Date for July 8th or July 9th then and a refund if we don't get enough info This one is a bit easier to settle than the average price we can also resolve if another bidder declares how much they bid and it was above the market value price. Guess we will just watch for now.

Sukrim 1:32PM, Jul 2, 2014 UTC

https://medium.com/@vaurum/tim-draper-wins-govt-auction-partners-with-vaurum-to-provide-bitcoin-liquidity-in-emerging-markets-88f04a1d8598 Well, the winner is now known, but has not disclosed a price - neither have people bidding anywhere close to the market price. So far I see no way to resolve this by now, as Avalon said I am against dragging this out either, max. one week hiatus should be plenty enough time to hope for more definite price leaks or give up alltogether and refund.

bitcoinaddress 5:30AM, Jul 2, 2014 UTC

I see, well here's hoping some more losing bidders reveal their price. It seems alot of the high profile guys are being coy about the exact price they bid to not move the market in either direction...yet.

Avalon 4:16AM, Jul 2, 2014 UTC

We don't need to know the price paid specifically for this bet; we need to know either the total auction proceeds (then do the math), or a party to come forward who bid $600 or more and still lost (which would resolve this as Yes). Otherwise, if nothing else happens, this bet will cancel/refund by July 9th as I'm sure no one wants to hold their coins in this for 6 months waiting for a FOIA on the USMS.

bitcoinaddress 4:07AM, Jul 2, 2014 UTC

So since one bidder won all the blocks, how the hell are we ever gonna know what the bid price was if they never choose to disclose it? Source: http://www.coindesk.com/us-marshals-one-auction-bidder-claimed-all-30000-silk-road-bitcoins/

Avalon 1:05AM, Jul 1, 2014 UTC

Good summary today by coinfire: http://coinfire.cf/2014/06/30/breaking-usms-auction-winners-notified/

Sukrim 10:18PM, Jun 30, 2014 UTC

Feel free to link to credible and verified/verifiable information here.

Zohann 8:51AM, Jun 30, 2014 UTC

Here's to $600+ then :)

mmortal03 9:23PM, Jun 29, 2014 UTC

For people who don't want to download it, $596.8 is value in the "high" column on the 2014-06-27 row from the .csv file.

Sukrim 9:54PM, Jun 28, 2014 UTC

Take a look at https://api.bitcoinaverage.com/history/USD/per_day_all_time_history.csv (also referenced in the "Decision Logic") to answer your question.

Zohann 9:17AM, Jun 28, 2014 UTC

The prices moved higher by approximately $10 after the auction closed... Market price at the time of the auction was $587.. does the move after auction close count?

Sukrim 9:54PM, Jun 26, 2014 UTC

About knowing the prices paid: I am not an insider myself, so I simply hope that there will be reasonably trustworthy reports about prices paid. After all we only need to know if one single block sold above X, not the prices for every single block.

Sukrim 9:51PM, Jun 26, 2014 UTC

The logic of course stays as it is (and has been) stated: The daily high on bitcoinaverage.com is what's going to be used. Please feel free to check with them which time zone they use (their code: https://github.com/bitcoinaverage/bitcoinaverage).

Avalon 9:35PM, Jun 26, 2014 UTC

@pantone - we judge based on decision logic so unless we get a report in the next 20 minutes from Sukrim, the decision logic stays - it will be whatever number is in the high column of that excel spreadsheet. If someone thinks that 'obviously it'll be a No then', I suggest they bet accordingly. There are many variables here.

pantone 9:27PM, Jun 26, 2014 UTC

I think it needs to follow the decision logic, which is the high in https://api.bitcoinaverage.com/history/USD/per_day_all_time_history.csv --I presume it will be until midnight of whatever timezone that API is in. As Avalon says, the winners aren't notified till 3 days later.

Avalon 9:20PM, Jun 26, 2014 UTC

@mmortal03 - I would assume he uses between 6am-6pm EDT - the point of this is if the coins would be sold 'above or below market value'. Once the coins are sold, they are part of the market value (if that makes sense) and thus excluded from the calculation - plus as you said any leaks of price after the auction may defeat the point of this wager. However, the winners aren't notified until the 30th, so I'm not sure this makes a big difference. The decision logic says 'High column of June 27th'

mmortal03 8:47PM, Jun 26, 2014 UTC

The auction goes from 6am - 6pm EDT on June 27th. Will you use the high price for the *entire day* of June 27th, or just up through 6pm EDT? If it's the former, and the price moves higher on June 27th *after* the 6pm auction close, i.e. the open market price surpasses whatever the top bid was *after* the auction is over, this bet would resolve as a no, which would go against the spirit of the wager, imo. Any leaks after 6 PM but before midnight EDT shouldn't have influence on this.

KoldBane 4:02PM, Jun 26, 2014 UTC

so... am I the only one flabbergasted that anybody involved with the U.S. government is selling off 1.8M dollar chunks of bitcoin? The only reason I can think of someone paying more is to say that they got some Silk Road btc, but how do you even show that kind of thing off, whip out your receipt?

whatever 10:22PM, Jun 23, 2014 UTC

Its all public record. It should all be available online after the auction.

Avalon 9:47PM, Jun 21, 2014 UTC

If the prices aren't leaked, this refunds 100%. I think the expectation will be that we will know.

empowering 7:55PM, Jun 21, 2014 UTC

How are you going to know what the blocks actually went for ?

bitcoinaddress 5:43AM, Jun 19, 2014 UTC

Easy money ha

Avalon 4:38PM, Jun 17, 2014 UTC

Outcome determination updated to reflect what I wrote earlier and the title.

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