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To Believe or Not to Believe

To Believe or Not to Believe
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Description

To believe or not to believe, that is the question. There are a variety of categories relevant to non-belief.  In previous censuses people have affiliated with the following categories: Agnostic, Atheist, Free Thinker, Humanist, Internationalist, Rationalist, Realist and Secularist as well as the mother of all none belief’s ‘None/No Religion’.  The latter with over seven million affiliations is way out in the lead. The race between Atheism and Agnosticism is much closer.  In 2011 there were 32,382 Agnostics and 29,267 Atheists. As people continue to drift away from religion, this bet is that there will be a bigger increase in the number who don't know (Agnostic) compared to those who don't believe (Atheist).

Decision Logic

The Data Gamble’s Metaphysical Census allows you make money from gambling on religious beliefs using the the 2021 population Census for England and Wales (E&W). This bet will be resolved upon publication by the Office for National Statistics of the Topic Summary for Ethic Group, National Identity, Language an Religion data release as detailed in Table 58A. Arbitration will be sought from British Religion in Numbers (BRIN) research programme in the event that it cannot be resolved to all bettors’ satisfaction.

CLOSING IN2022-09-30 23:00:00

6:39PM, Jul 6, 2022 UTC

11:00PM, Sep 30, 2022 UTC

12:00AM, Oct 31, 2022 UTC

RESOLVED AT 10:51AM, Dec 3, 2022 UTC

Total Volume: 0.0002

This bet has been resolved!

The outcome was "Yes"

0.0002 was split between 1 bettors.
YES
Volume:0.0001
0.0001
# of Bets:1
NO
Volume:0.0001
0.0001
# of Bets:1

Discussion

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Data-Gamble 1:47PM, Dec 3, 2022 UTC
I do not believe it! Both Agnosticism and Atheism have seen declines in the number of affiliations. This bet was about the expected increase, but as the decrease in agnosticism (1%) is less than the decline in Atheism (a whopping 53%), its a Yes for Agnosticism. Despite both now being in dcline there are approximately twice as many 'I dont knowers' ad 'I do not believers'.
Data-Gamble 11:39AM, Nov 6, 2022 UTC
The first set of Census religion bets are finally expected to be resolved on the 29th November 2022 with the publication of the Topic Summary on Ethnic Group, National Identity, Language and Religion. https://census.gov.uk/census-2021-results/phase-one-topic-summaries/ethnic-group-national-identity-language-and-religion

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