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Will 2021 be the warmest year on record?

Will 2021 be the warmest year on record?
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Description

The Earth's global surface temperature varies from year to year. Some believe there is an increasing trend due to human carbon emissions, while others say the climate is unaffected by human activity and we will soon experience another ice age.

Regardless, will NASA's GISTEMP Surface Temperature Analysis record 2021 as being the warmest year on record?

Decision Logic

YES: The global temperature Annual Average Anomaly for 2021 is greater than that for all prior recorded and published years (1880-2020), as rounded to the nearest hundredth of a degree Celsius, according to the first-published such data on NASA's Global Climate Change website, at https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/.

NO: The Anomaly is less than or equal to the previous record.

CLOSING IN2022-01-01 05:00:00

1:01AM, Jan 2, 2021 UTC

5:00AM, Jan 1, 2022 UTC

4:11PM, Jan 21, 2022 UTC

Early Outcome

RESOLVED AT 4:57PM, Jan 21, 2022 UTC

Total Volume: 0.6743

This bet has been resolved!

The outcome was "No"

0.67426851 was split between 41 bettors.
YES
Volume:0.1254
2.96363756
# of Bets:16
NO
Volume:0.5489
7.53976312
# of Bets:41

Discussion

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d_d 4:10AM, Jan 21, 2022 UTC
@f84jf85hg7g As you said the site was updated around Jan 20th: https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/ now shows 0.85.
MrnobodylifeA 6:24PM, Jan 18, 2022 UTC
Do think of the price of bitcoin will drop 38K before 31st Jan https://www.betmoose.com/bet/will-bitcoin-be-below-38k-before-31st-jan-2022-5726#bets-1
f84jf85hg7g 11:23PM, Jan 15, 2022 UTC
GISTEMP table has updated 2022-01-13, and 2021's anomaly is 0.85, while 2020 and 2016 are still tied for the record of 1.02, so this will resolve to No https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt But I'll wait until they actually update the website to be as legit as possible. They updated it around Jan 20th last year according to Internet Archive.
f84jf85hg7g 12:06AM, Jan 11, 2022 UTC
Made a new one :D https://www.betmoose.com/bet/will-2022-be-the-warmest-year-on-record-5733
f84jf85hg7g 4:21PM, Jan 7, 2022 UTC
I'm checking NASA's website regularly...
MrnobodylifeA 3:38AM, Dec 4, 2021 UTC
New bitcoin price bet https://www.betmoose.com/bet/bitcoin-reaching-all-time-high-before-2021-ends-5695#bets-1
jpapa 3:44PM, Oct 29, 2021 UTC
@d_d Yeah that’s true.
d_d 2:45PM, Oct 24, 2021 UTC
@jpapa Public opinion on climate change has become extremely polarized. Some people might even think that it is just a liberal conspiracy! You can exploit the certain ideological bias that is quite evident here.
jpapa 5:37PM, Oct 15, 2021 UTC
Alright. @f84jf85hg7g
f84jf85hg7g 2:56AM, Oct 15, 2021 UTC
@jpapa I have no idea. I'm pretty new to hosting. None of my other bets got very much attention.
jpapa 3:17PM, Oct 14, 2021 UTC
Do you advertise your bets somewhere else or something else you do? Thanks. @f84jf85hg7g
jpapa 3:12PM, Oct 14, 2021 UTC
If you don’t mind, but how do your bet get so much volume? @f84jf85hg7g
shemsedin 9:16AM, Oct 14, 2021 UTC
g7:05PM, Sep 7, 2021"July 2021 has earned the unenviable distinction as the world’s hottest month ever recorded, according to new global data released today by NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information. … Around the globe: the combined land and ocean-surface temperature was 1.67 degrees F (0.93 of a degree C) above the 20th-century average of 60.4 degrees F (15.8 degrees C), making it the hottest July since records began 142 years ago."
f84jf85hg7g 4:05PM, Sep 7, 2021 UTC
"July 2021 has earned the unenviable distinction as the world’s hottest month ever recorded, according to new global data released today by NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information. … Around the globe: the combined land and ocean-surface temperature was 1.67 degrees F (0.93 of a degree C) above the 20th-century average of 60.4 degrees F (15.8 degrees C), making it the hottest July since records began 142 years ago."
f84jf85hg7g 4:01AM, Jul 20, 2021 UTC
"Our calculations suggest: < 1% chance of warmest year" https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202106/supplemental/page-2
f84jf85hg7g 2:12PM, Jun 30, 2021 UTC
What happened to the comments?
MagMMA 1:12AM, Jun 30, 2021 UTC
It is starting to look like it.
f84jf85hg7g 9:33PM, May 16, 2021 UTC
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202104/supplemental/page-2 "Our calculations suggest: < 1% chance of warmest year"
FreedomOfTrade 4:32AM, Feb 17, 2021 UTC
I bet 100 btc Texas will singlehandedly flip the results to No.
f84jf85hg7g 7:51PM, Feb 16, 2021 UTC
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202101/supplemental/page-2 "Our calculations suggest: 2.9% chance of warmest year"
f84jf85hg7g 6:47PM, Jan 17, 2021 UTC
Note that NASA does revise their numbers for previous years, which is why the rules say "the first-published such data". In other words, when 2021 is added to https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt At the beginning of 2020, the table listed 2016 as 1.01 anomaly, but now it's revised to 1.02, and 2020 is also reported as 1.02, so that would be considered a tie and resolve to No. Hopefully 2021 won't be that close.
f84jf85hg7g 6:42PM, Jan 17, 2021 UTC
https://climate.nasa.gov/news/3061/2020-tied-for-warmest-year-on-record-nasa-analysis-shows/

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