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Will 2021 be the warmest year on record?

Will 2021 be the warmest year on record?


The Earth's global surface temperature varies from year to year. Some believe there is an increasing trend due to human carbon emissions, while others say the climate is unaffected by human activity and we will soon experience another ice age.

Regardless, will NASA's GISTEMP Surface Temperature Analysis record 2021 as being the warmest year on record?

Decision Logic

YES: The global temperature Annual Average Anomaly for 2021 is greater than that for all prior recorded and published years (1880-2020), as rounded to the nearest hundredth of a degree Celsius, according to the first-published such data on NASA's Global Climate Change website, at

NO: The Anomaly is less than or equal to the previous record.

CLOSING IN2022-01-01 04:59:00

1:01AM, Jan 2, 2021 UTC

4:59AM, Jan 1, 2022 UTC

5:00AM, Feb 1, 2022 UTC

13.330xCurrent Time-Weight Multiplier

Total Volume: 0.3495

Volume: 0.1190
# of Bets: 10

*assumes current weight and volumes

Volume: 0.2305
# of Bets: 32

*assumes current weight and volumes


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f84jf85hg7g 4:05PM, Sep 7, 2021 UTC
"July 2021 has earned the unenviable distinction as the world’s hottest month ever recorded, according to new global data released today by NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information. … Around the globe: the combined land and ocean-surface temperature was 1.67 degrees F (0.93 of a degree C) above the 20th-century average of 60.4 degrees F (15.8 degrees C), making it the hottest July since records began 142 years ago."
f84jf85hg7g 4:01AM, Jul 20, 2021 UTC
"Our calculations suggest: < 1% chance of warmest year"
f84jf85hg7g 2:12PM, Jun 30, 2021 UTC
What happened to the comments?
MagMMA 1:12AM, Jun 30, 2021 UTC
It is starting to look like it.
f84jf85hg7g 9:33PM, May 16, 2021 UTC "Our calculations suggest: < 1% chance of warmest year"
FreedomOfTrade 4:32AM, Feb 17, 2021 UTC
I bet 100 btc Texas will singlehandedly flip the results to No.
f84jf85hg7g 7:51PM, Feb 16, 2021 UTC "Our calculations suggest: 2.9% chance of warmest year"
f84jf85hg7g 6:47PM, Jan 17, 2021 UTC
Note that NASA does revise their numbers for previous years, which is why the rules say "the first-published such data". In other words, when 2021 is added to At the beginning of 2020, the table listed 2016 as 1.01 anomaly, but now it's revised to 1.02, and 2020 is also reported as 1.02, so that would be considered a tie and resolve to No. Hopefully 2021 won't be that close.
f84jf85hg7g 6:42PM, Jan 17, 2021 UTC

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