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Will Biden Win the Democratic Presidential Primary?
Will Biden Win the Democratic Presidential Primary?
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Description
This is a market on if Joe Biden will win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Primary. If Robert F. Kennedy or anyone else wins, it will resolve No.
Decision Logic
This will be decided based on official sources. It will be resolved as soon as Biden or someone else is officially nominated. If Biden dies before resolution of this market it can be resolved "No" early. Also, if Biden announces he will suspend his campaign, such as for health reasons, this market can prematurely resolve "No".
CLOSING IN2024-07-21 17:10:00
7:34PM, Jul 21, 2023 UTC
5:10PM, Jul 21, 2024 UTC
5:50PM, Jul 21, 2024 UTC
RESOLVED AT 6:48PM, Jul 21, 2024 UTC
Offered Volume: 0.2280
Backed Volume: 0.3118
This bet has been resolved!
The outcome was "Yes"
YES
Volume
0.2555921
# Bets
11
NO
Volume
0.0562
# Bets
5
Placed Bets
| Time | User | Option | Bet Amount | Odds | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5:29PM, Feb 1, 2024 UTC |  Anonymous |
Yes | 0.0001 | 1.18x | 0.00011446 |
| 3:34PM, Jan 9, 2024 UTC | Anonymous |
Yes | 0.015 | 1.20x | 0.01746000 |
| 12:22PM, Jan 9, 2024 UTC | Anonymous |
Yes | 0.027 | 1.20x | 0.03142800 |
| 12:16PM, Jan 9, 2024 UTC | Anonymous |
Yes | 0.03 | 1.20x | 0.03492000 |
| 1:49AM, Jan 9, 2024 UTC | Anonymous |
Yes | 0.03 | 1.20x | 0.03492000 |
| 4:37PM, Oct 3, 2023 UTC | 
dogiv |
Yes | 0.09 | 1.22x | 0.10650600 |
| 12:43AM, Oct 3, 2023 UTC |
JuliasCeasar |
Yes | 0.03 | 1.50x | 0.04365000 |
| 5:23PM, Oct 1, 2023 UTC |
JuliasCeasar |
Yes | 0.0052221 | 1.50x | 0.00759816 |
| 5:14PM, Oct 1, 2023 UTC |
JuliasCeasar |
Yes | 0.013 | 1.50x | 0.01891500 |
| 4:39AM, Sep 30, 2023 UTC | Anonymous |
No | 0.0182 | 3.61x | 0.00000000 |
| 1:52AM, Sep 16, 2023 UTC | Anonymous |
No | 0.008 | 3.80x | 0.00000000 |
| 4:55PM, Aug 15, 2023 UTC |
OnlineDegen |
No | 0.01 | 3.97x | 0.00000000 |
| 12:57PM, Aug 4, 2023 UTC | Anonymous |
No | 0.01 | 3.98x | 0.00000000 |
| 11:20AM, Aug 3, 2023 UTC | Anonymous |
No | 0.01 | 4.00x | 0.00000000 |
| 2:21PM, Jul 27, 2023 UTC | Anonymous |
Yes | 0.01027 | 1.30x | 0.01295047 |
| 4:19PM, Jul 22, 2023 UTC | Anonymous |
Yes | 0.005 | 1.30x | 0.00630500 |
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Discussion
Avalon
3:39AM, Jul 23, 2024 UTC
For the "No" outcome, the only thing that we see is the "officially nominated" text, however, is he officially nominated at the DNC (Aug) (which is not mentioned), or, is it referring to the official count of the delegates?
In our view, and based on that this was a bet from 2023, we believe the spirit of the bet was whether or not Biden campaigned against his peers and won the delegates required to run for re-election, which happened.
Avalon
3:35AM, Jul 23, 2024 UTC
This one is tricky and arguments can be made on both sides. In our view, we see the YES reason due to:
- Title (he won the primaries)
- Timeline (ends before the actual DNC)
- Logic about him suspending his campaign [for the primaries]. He campaigned and won the delegates accordingly.
CapE
9:05PM, Jul 21, 2024 UTC
The bet is based on the outcome of the primaries, which ended, the last one taking place on 8th of June, not based on the actual nomination. It does not say in the decision making logic that it will be resolved as soon as someone is nominated, not that being nominated is the decision criteria. A similar bet, based on nomination was settled here: https://www.betmoose.com/bet/will-joe-biden-be-the-democrat-party-nominee-in-2024-5843#bets-1. Biden still won around 89% of the Primary votes.
Trev625
8:54PM, Jul 21, 2024 UTC
I have no horse in this race but I would think that since Biden dropped out that means he didn't win the presidential primary. Since it says as soon as someone is officially nominated which I don't think has happened yet.
CapE
7:42PM, Jul 21, 2024 UTC
Also by Politico:
https://www.politico.com/2024-election/results/president/
CapE
6:15PM, Jul 21, 2024 UTC
Official vote results: https://www.thegreenpapers.com/P24/D
CapE
6:05PM, Jul 21, 2024 UTC
As today was the end of this bet, didn't Biden technically won the Primary votes (online vote counts), despite not being nominated yet? The decision making says that the bet will resolve when someone is nominated, but not that this is the criteria.
Avalon
2:21AM, Apr 29, 2024 UTC
@JuliasCeasar - as per the settlement logic here, you chose to use the word 'officially', which is technically August. Although it is mostly a formality, the fact you write about his potential withdrawal or health reasons means there exists a path for No to win still, so we would leave this open as intended.
JuliasCeasar
2:24PM, Mar 22, 2024 UTC
@Avalon Thoughts? This same market using the other version has already resolved: https://www.betmoose.com/bet/will-joe-biden-be-the-democrat-party-nominee-in-2024-5843#bets-1
JuliasCeasar
10:52AM, Mar 20, 2024 UTC
Looks like another market with this question resolved. I tend to think this one shouldn't resolve until the convention unless those who bet No agree. Biden has clinched, after all.
JuliasCeasar
2:16PM, Jan 22, 2024 UTC
@f84jf85hg7g, right now, if you bet on No, you can get a 5:1 return. If you bet on yes, you can get 1.18. Both depend on amount for the exact odds, but that's the basics. Whatever the number is, you multiple the amount bet by that.
f84jf85hg7g
1:25AM, Jan 17, 2024 UTC
I still don't understand this style of bet...
JuliasCeasar
3:12PM, Jan 12, 2024 UTC
Similar general election market here: https://www.betmoose.com/bet/who-will-win-the-2024-presidential-election-5945
JuliasCeasar
8:26PM, Jan 8, 2024 UTC
I would take Biden at 1.33x, for whoever is offering the 1.25.
JuliasCeasar
11:34PM, Jan 2, 2024 UTC
@Zarathustra. Just click on yes and bet. There is yes on offer.
Zarathustra
6:03PM, Jan 2, 2024 UTC
Hello I want to bet like 0.01 for YES?
JuliasCeasar
10:05AM, Oct 24, 2023 UTC
If anyone wants liquidity here, just ask in the comments. As mentioned, I would probably wager a coin at 1.55, and would probably do .1 at 1.5.
JuliasCeasar
1:15AM, Oct 3, 2023 UTC
I could probably muster a coin at 1.55
JuliasCeasar
12:49AM, Oct 3, 2023 UTC
Moved to Mexc. No trading fee (as far as I could tell), but a .0003 withdrawal fee. Fine if doing volume. I'd do larger volume at 1.55.
JuliasCeasar
6:46PM, Oct 1, 2023 UTC
Where do people buy BTC these days? F*ck Coinbases fees... Need to move elsewhere.
JuliasCeasar
5:08PM, Oct 1, 2023 UTC
Would still take Yes (/lay no) at 1.5 (or 3).
JuliasCeasar
2:12PM, Sep 30, 2023 UTC
lmao, biden slurring some speech in AZ the other day. gonna be sweating this one out
JuliasCeasar
12:09PM, Jul 29, 2023 UTC
I laid some No at 4. I think that is equivalent to 1.33.
JuliasCeasar
8:19PM, Jul 28, 2023 UTC
I can probably muster like a fourth a coin at 1.33. At 1.37, I could do several coins.
leen93
3:44AM, Jul 28, 2023 UTC
Could you do 15 btc versus my 5 btc? 1.33 odds
leen93
3:40AM, Jul 28, 2023 UTC
not me, but might be interested, what volume are we talking?
JuliasCeasar
11:43AM, Jul 25, 2023 UTC
Whoever is offering Biden yes, I would take action at 1.33.
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