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Will Biden Win the Democratic Presidential Primary?

Will Biden Win the Democratic Presidential Primary?


This is a market on if Joe Biden will win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Primary. If Robert F. Kennedy or anyone else wins, it will resolve No.

Decision Logic

This will be decided based on official sources. It will be resolved as soon as Biden or someone else is officially nominated. If Biden dies before resolution of this market it can be resolved "No" early. Also, if Biden announces he will suspend his campaign, such as for health reasons, this market can prematurely resolve "No".

CLOSING IN2024-07-21 17:10:00

7:34PM, Jul 21, 2023 UTC

5:10PM, Jul 21, 2024 UTC

5:50PM, Jul 21, 2024 UTC

Offered Volume: 0.2332
Backed Volume: 0.3118
No offers available on this option

*does not include 3% fee


*does not include 3% fee

Placed Bets

Time User Option Bet Amount Odds Expected Payout
5:29PM, Feb 1, 2024 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.0001 1.18x 0.00011446
3:34PM, Jan 9, 2024 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.015 1.20x 0.01746000
12:22PM, Jan 9, 2024 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.027 1.20x 0.03142800
12:16PM, Jan 9, 2024 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.03 1.20x 0.03492000
1:49AM, Jan 9, 2024 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.03 1.20x 0.03492000
4:37PM, Oct 3, 2023 UTC dogiv Yes 0.09 1.22x 0.10650600
12:43AM, Oct 3, 2023 UTC JuliasCeasar Yes 0.03 1.50x 0.04365000
5:23PM, Oct 1, 2023 UTC JuliasCeasar Yes 0.0052221 1.50x 0.00759816
5:14PM, Oct 1, 2023 UTC JuliasCeasar Yes 0.013 1.50x 0.01891500
4:39AM, Sep 30, 2023 UTC Anonymous No 0.0182 3.61x 0.06373094
1:52AM, Sep 16, 2023 UTC Anonymous No 0.008 3.80x 0.02948800
4:55PM, Aug 15, 2023 UTC OnlineDegen No 0.01 3.97x 0.03850900
12:57PM, Aug 4, 2023 UTC Anonymous No 0.01 3.98x 0.03860600
11:20AM, Aug 3, 2023 UTC Anonymous No 0.01 4.00x 0.03880000
2:21PM, Jul 27, 2023 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.01027 1.30x 0.01295047
4:19PM, Jul 22, 2023 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.005 1.30x 0.00630500
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Avalon 2:21AM, Apr 29, 2024 UTC
@JuliasCeasar - as per the settlement logic here, you chose to use the word 'officially', which is technically August. Although it is mostly a formality, the fact you write about his potential withdrawal or health reasons means there exists a path for No to win still, so we would leave this open as intended.
JuliasCeasar 2:24PM, Mar 22, 2024 UTC
@Avalon Thoughts? This same market using the other version has already resolved:
JuliasCeasar 10:52AM, Mar 20, 2024 UTC
Looks like another market with this question resolved. I tend to think this one shouldn't resolve until the convention unless those who bet No agree. Biden has clinched, after all.
JuliasCeasar 2:16PM, Jan 22, 2024 UTC
@f84jf85hg7g, right now, if you bet on No, you can get a 5:1 return. If you bet on yes, you can get 1.18. Both depend on amount for the exact odds, but that's the basics. Whatever the number is, you multiple the amount bet by that.
f84jf85hg7g 1:25AM, Jan 17, 2024 UTC
I still don't understand this style of bet...
JuliasCeasar 3:12PM, Jan 12, 2024 UTC
Similar general election market here:
JuliasCeasar 8:26PM, Jan 8, 2024 UTC
I would take Biden at 1.33x, for whoever is offering the 1.25.
JuliasCeasar 11:34PM, Jan 2, 2024 UTC
@Zarathustra. Just click on yes and bet. There is yes on offer.
Zarathustra 6:03PM, Jan 2, 2024 UTC
Hello I want to bet like 0.01 for YES?
JuliasCeasar 10:05AM, Oct 24, 2023 UTC
If anyone wants liquidity here, just ask in the comments. As mentioned, I would probably wager a coin at 1.55, and would probably do .1 at 1.5.
JuliasCeasar 1:15AM, Oct 3, 2023 UTC
I could probably muster a coin at 1.55
JuliasCeasar 12:49AM, Oct 3, 2023 UTC
Moved to Mexc. No trading fee (as far as I could tell), but a .0003 withdrawal fee. Fine if doing volume. I'd do larger volume at 1.55.
JuliasCeasar 6:46PM, Oct 1, 2023 UTC
Where do people buy BTC these days? F*ck Coinbases fees... Need to move elsewhere.
JuliasCeasar 5:08PM, Oct 1, 2023 UTC
Would still take Yes (/lay no) at 1.5 (or 3).
JuliasCeasar 2:12PM, Sep 30, 2023 UTC
lmao, biden slurring some speech in AZ the other day. gonna be sweating this one out
JuliasCeasar 12:09PM, Jul 29, 2023 UTC
I laid some No at 4. I think that is equivalent to 1.33.
JuliasCeasar 8:19PM, Jul 28, 2023 UTC
I can probably muster like a fourth a coin at 1.33. At 1.37, I could do several coins.
leen93 3:44AM, Jul 28, 2023 UTC
Could you do 15 btc versus my 5 btc? 1.33 odds
leen93 3:40AM, Jul 28, 2023 UTC
not me, but might be interested, what volume are we talking?
JuliasCeasar 11:43AM, Jul 25, 2023 UTC
Whoever is offering Biden yes, I would take action at 1.33.

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