Will Third Parties be Relevant in 2024?

Category:

Description

A recent Quinnipiac poll indicates RFK Jr. could significantly disrupt the 2024 Presidential Election, showing him with 22% support in a hypothetical three-way race. This bet considers whether a third-party candidate can capitalize on this momentum and secure a substantial portion of the popular vote, challenging two-party dominance.

Decision Logic

This bet will settle based on the highest percentage of total popular vote any third-party (not Democratic or Republican) candidate receives in the 2024 Presidential Election, as reported by major news outlets. If a candidate’s percentage falls on a boundary (e.g., exactly 5.00%), the higher category applies. In case of recounts or disputes, the bet awaits the final, undisputed media consensus.