Will Third Parties be Relevant in 2024?
Description
A recent Quinnipiac poll indicates RFK Jr. could significantly disrupt the 2024 Presidential Election, showing him with 22% support in a hypothetical three-way race. This bet considers whether a third-party candidate can capitalize on this momentum and secure a substantial portion of the popular vote, challenging two-party dominance.

Decision Logic
This bet will settle based on the highest percentage of total popular vote any third-party (not Democratic or Republican) candidate receives in the 2024 Presidential Election, as reported by major news outlets. If a candidate’s percentage falls on a boundary (e.g., exactly 5.00%), the higher category applies. In case of recounts or disputes, the bet awaits the final, undisputed media consensus.
9:50PM, Nov 7, 2023 UTC
5:00AM, Nov 4, 2024 UTC
5:00AM, Nov 10, 2024 UTC
RESOLVED AT 3:40AM, Nov 21, 2024 UTC
Total Volume: 0.0008
This bet has been resolved!
The outcome was "No 3rd party above 2%"
0.0008 was split between 5 bettors.
Volume: | 0.0006 |
# of Bets: | 5 |
Volume: | 0.0002 |
# of Bets: | 2 |
Volume: | 0.0000 |
# of Bets: | 0 |
Volume: | 0.0000 |
# of Bets: | 0 |
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