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Will Third Parties be Relevant in 2024?

Will Third Parties be Relevant in 2024?
Category:
Politics
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Description

A recent Quinnipiac poll indicates RFK Jr. could significantly disrupt the 2024 Presidential Election, showing him with 22% support in a hypothetical three-way race. This bet considers whether a third-party candidate can capitalize on this momentum and secure a substantial portion of the popular vote, challenging two-party dominance.

Decision Logic

This bet will settle based on the highest percentage of total popular vote any third-party (not Democratic or Republican) candidate receives in the 2024 Presidential Election, as reported by major news outlets. If a candidate’s percentage falls on a boundary (e.g., exactly 5.00%), the higher category applies. In case of recounts or disputes, the bet awaits the final, undisputed media consensus.

CLOSING IN2024-11-04 05:00:00

9:50PM, Nov 7, 2023 UTC

5:00AM, Nov 4, 2024 UTC

5:00AM, Nov 10, 2024 UTC

RESOLVED AT 3:40AM, Nov 21, 2024 UTC

Total Volume: 0.0008

This bet has been resolved!

The outcome was "No 3rd party above 2%"

0.0008 was split between 5 bettors.
No 3rd party above 2%
Volume:0.0006
0.00581
# of Bets:5
2% to 5%
Volume:0.0002
0.008388
# of Bets:2
5% to 15%
Volume:0.0000
0
# of Bets:0
15% or higher
Volume:0.0000
0
# of Bets:0

Discussion

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f84jf85hg7g 3:39AM, Nov 21, 2024 UTC
Turns out news outlets don't even report the third party vote tallies, but Wikipedia says 98.7% of the vote has been counted, and the highest third party is Jill Stein with 0.5%, so even if she gets all of the remaining 1.3% of the remaining votes, she would get 1.8% of the total. So I can resolve it to "No 3rd party above 2%".
f84jf85hg7g 3:37AM, Nov 10, 2024 UTC
This will be resolved after the count is finished

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