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Will Bitcoin reach new ATH within 6mo of next halving?

Will Bitcoin reach new ATH within 6mo of next halving?
Category:
Bitcoin
By
Porky
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Description

Bitcoin recently recovered to 50% of its all-time high on hopes of U.S. spot ETFs being approved and on the approaching halving. Will BTC reach a new all-time high before the halving, or within six months of it?

Different exchanges list different all-time highs. For the purpose of this bet, and for simplicity, this bet defines the all-time high as $69,000 and the exchange will be Coinbase. If Coinbase becomes unavailable (e.g., regulatory crackdown) Kraken will be used instead.

The current halving date is estimated as April 25, 2024 at about 11:50 AM UTC, but may change as hashrate increases or decreases prior to that. The exact time of the halving block will be used to determine the outcome.

Decision Logic

If the price of 1 BTC reaches $69,000 before the next halving, "PREHALVING" wins.

If the price of 1BTC reaches $69,000 within six months of the next halving, "WITHIN6MO" wins.

If the price of 1BTC does not reach $69,000 within six months of the next halving, "NOPE" wins.

Note that $69,000.00000000 is the win point. $68,999.9999999999 is sad panda point.

Anti-leech provision: "PREHALVING" bets made less than seven days (168 hours) before a new ATH (if prior to the halving) will be refunded.

CLOSING IN2024-02-29 05:00:00

12:36AM, Nov 7, 2023 UTC

5:00AM, Feb 29, 2024 UTC

3:04PM, Mar 19, 2024 UTC

Early Outcome

RESOLVED AT 9:06PM, Mar 19, 2024 UTC

Total Volume: 0.0048

This bet has been resolved!

The outcome was "PREHALVING"

0.00475 was split between 1 bettors.
PREHALVING
Volume:0.0005
0.00927
# of Bets:1
WITHIN6MO
Volume:0.0009
0.01299275
# of Bets:4
NOPE
Volume:0.0034
0.0404185
# of Bets:2

Discussion

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Porky 9:07PM, Mar 19, 2024 UTC
Thanks!
Avalon 3:05PM, Mar 19, 2024 UTC
Nice one @Porky!
Porky 7:02PM, Mar 11, 2024 UTC
@Vinh that's how it generally works, yes. You've been on here for eight years already? Unfortunately there is no "resolve early" button to press, the admins have been notified via the report button and now we just have to wait until they process the early resolution, refunds, and anything else.
Vinh 8:10AM, Mar 11, 2024 UTC
So will I have a refund?
Porky 3:12AM, Mar 11, 2024 UTC
@Vinh you were after the anti-leech period when you bet, so you won't be getting a payout anyway. Read the bet, read the comments. For everyone else, the admins have been notified that the bet resolved early.
Vinh 9:09PM, Mar 9, 2024 UTC
I bet 0.00079127 on pre halving March 1st why I have not been paid out
Porky 11:05PM, Mar 8, 2024 UTC
Aaaand about an hour and twenty minutes above $69K from 2pm to 3:20 (U.S. Central time, about two hours ago). https://i.imgur.com/sIsBBKK.jpeg
Porky 3:44PM, Mar 8, 2024 UTC
https://i.imgur.com/la9Opm7.jpeg
Porky 3:41PM, Mar 8, 2024 UTC
Over 70K now on Coinbase, still less than 7 full days from all the recent March 2024 bets. https://i.imgur.com/S3PAJVu.jpeg
Porky 7:14PM, Mar 6, 2024 UTC
@sirlanka the win condition occurred on March 5th at 9am. "Prehalving" won. You can see screenshots from Coinbase in my comment below, and check their stats page to verify it yourself if you wish.
Porky 7:13PM, Mar 6, 2024 UTC
@Vinh you aren't getting a payout because (1) there was only a single bet made on "prehalving" prior to the anti-leech period kicking in, and (2) you aren't that bet. Next time, consider betting well in advance of the win condition instead of too late!
sirlanka 9:24AM, Mar 6, 2024 UTC
@Vinh why would it be paid out when neither $ ATH nor Decision Logic has been reached?
Vinh 3:46AM, Mar 6, 2024 UTC
Why I has not been paid out?
Porky 5:47PM, Mar 5, 2024 UTC
@Avalon I may have mistyped "posthalving" instead of "prehalving" when I submitted the outcome-is-known report. Can't remember, but I made that error in the comment below. :-(
Porky 5:45PM, Mar 5, 2024 UTC
Sorry, I meant "prehalving bets made in March 2024" And "PREHALVING" wins.
Porky 5:31PM, Mar 5, 2024 UTC
All you would-be leeches just lost out; Coinbase hit an all-time high of $69,324.58 on March 5th 2024 at 9am. For some reason the stats below the graph say it was only $69,225.37, but either way it's done. All the "posthalving" bets made in March 2024 (the last five days) are refunded. https://i.imgur.com/pcL9jwu.jpeg https://i.imgur.com/VKY7Glg.jpeg
Zarathustra 5:59PM, Jan 2, 2024 UTC
Zarathustra is back!

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