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Will Bitcoin reach new ATH within 6mo of next halving?

Will Bitcoin reach new ATH within 6mo of next halving?
Category:
Bitcoin
By
Porky
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Description

Bitcoin recently recovered to 50% of its all-time high on hopes of U.S. spot ETFs being approved and on the approaching halving. Will BTC reach a new all-time high before the halving, or within six months of it?

Different exchanges list different all-time highs. For the purpose of this bet, and for simplicity, this bet defines the all-time high as $69,000 and the exchange will be Coinbase. If Coinbase becomes unavailable (e.g., regulatory crackdown) Kraken will be used instead.

The current halving date is estimated as April 25, 2024 at about 11:50 AM UTC, but may change as hashrate increases or decreases prior to that. The exact time of the halving block will be used to determine the outcome.

Decision Logic

If the price of 1 BTC reaches $69,000 before the next halving, "PREHALVING" wins.

If the price of 1BTC reaches $69,000 within six months of the next halving, "WITHIN6MO" wins.

If the price of 1BTC does not reach $69,000 within six months of the next halving, "NOPE" wins.

Note that $69,000.00000000 is the win point. $68,999.9999999999 is sad panda point.

Anti-leech provision: "PREHALVING" bets made less than seven days (168 hours) before a new ATH (if prior to the halving) will be refunded.

CLOSING IN2024-04-01 05:00:00

12:36AM, Nov 7, 2023 UTC

5:00AM, Apr 1, 2024 UTC

5:00AM, Nov 1, 2024 UTC

5.335xCurrent Time-Weight Multiplier

Total Volume: 0.0048

PREHALVING
Volume: 0.0005
0.00927
# of Bets: 1
Payout
ROI
0.00
0%

*assumes current weight and volumes

WITHIN6MO
Volume: 0.0009
0.01299275
# of Bets: 4
Payout
ROI
0.00
0%

*assumes current weight and volumes

NOPE
Volume: 0.0034
0.0404185
# of Bets: 2
Payout
ROI
0.00
0%

*assumes current weight and volumes

Discussion

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Zarathustra 5:59PM, Jan 2, 2024 UTC
Zarathustra is back!

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*For use with standalone wallets (bitcoin-qt, electrum).
Shared wallets (exchanges, multifactor) will not work!

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Send your bet to this address:

1EbocQk64Kh3bXVEebPcsCtcJoB2mRwNhk

* Minimum bet is 0.0001 BTC

Your bet will be automatically entered when picked up - no confirmations needed!

Done