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Will Blue Origin make it to orbit in 2024?

Will Blue Origin make it to orbit in 2024?
Category:
Entertainment
By
Porky
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Description

Jeff Bezos's ***** has made a few trips up and down to give up-and-down joyrides to tourists, but Blue Origin has yet to launch any rocket into orbit. NASA has booked a launch of its Mars ESCAPADE probe on a New Glenn rocket in the second half of 2024. Will Blue Origin finally get a launch into -- or beyond -- orbit?

Decision Logic

YES wins if Blue Origin successfully orbits a payload or gets ESCAPADE on its way to Mars.

NO wins if Blue Origin fails to launch a payload to orbit or beyond before the calendar flips to 2025.

A payload may include a mass simulator, real satellite, or probe.

Local timezone of launch controls, so 11:59pm California time on December 31 2024, for a launch from California, is still a success even though in UTC it would already be 2025.

CLOSING IN2024-07-01 05:00:00

2:06AM, Jan 5, 2024 UTC

5:00AM, Jul 1, 2024 UTC

5:55AM, Jan 2, 2025 UTC

RESOLVED AT 6:34AM, Jan 2, 2025 UTC

Total Volume: 0.0003

This bet has been resolved!

The outcome was "No"

0.0003 was split between 1 bettors.
YES
Volume:0.0001
0.000427
# of Bets:1
NO
Volume:0.0002
0.004475
# of Bets:1

Discussion

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Porky 6:11AM, Dec 31, 2024 UTC
@Golhoneybadger You may have seen the static fire videos already, and it went fine, but unfortunately they've decided to delay launching until January 5th. Sorry! I would have much rather lost this bet and won the SpaceX one, since that would have meant both teams were doing well, but instead, here we are. :-(
Golhoneybadger 4:14AM, Dec 28, 2024 UTC
lol i forgot about this bet, real personal up in here
Porky 3:57AM, Dec 25, 2024 UTC
@Golhoneybadger this one is going down to the wire. If the static fire is successful in the next three days, Bezos has gotten a launch window starting at 11:30PM EST on December 31st!
Porky 9:35AM, Nov 21, 2024 UTC
BO has rolled the New Glenn out for its static fire test. Should happen in the next few days. If no problems are found, they'll have their launch soon! https://twitter.com/blueorigin/status/1859327479548125432
Porky 10:57AM, Nov 13, 2024 UTC
It looks like today was the first time they even mated the booster and upper stages together. AFAIK they haven't even done a static fire test of the booster stage yet, which is strange. https://twitter.com/blueorigin/status/1856434580972286127
Porky 4:03AM, Nov 6, 2024 UTC
NASA's ESCAPADE has been delayed until next year, but Bezos was still planning to have his first New Glenn perform a test launch this month. Last news I saw was that they'd moved the completed booster out for a static test-fire last week (10/30), but I still haven't seen any scheduling.
Porky 2:08AM, Jan 5, 2024 UTC
If I'd known the word "*****" was going to be censored, I would have called it something else. :-) Anyway, that refers to the dinky little non-orbital-class "space tourism" rocket that Bezos has been launching for tourist flights for a few years.

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