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Will Donald Trump Win the Popular Vote in 2020?

Will Donald Trump Win the Popular Vote in 2020?


Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2020 US Presidential Election?

Decision Logic

If Donald Trump is the candidate receiving the most votes in the 2020 U.S. presidential election, according to the Federal Election Commission's tabulation of official vote totals for each state and the District of Columbia. Should Mr. Trump be among two or more candidates tied for the most votes, this market will resolve as Yes.

CLOSING IN2020-11-07 14:45:00

7:55AM, Oct 23, 2020 UTC

2:45PM, Nov 7, 2020 UTC

9:45AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC

RESOLVED AT 10:00AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC

Offered Volume: 0.2332
Backed Volume: 0.1076

This bet has been resolved!

The outcome was "No"

# Bets
# Bets

Placed Bets

Time User Option Bet Amount Odds Payout
1:17PM, Nov 3, 2020 UTC Loopylocksta Yes 0.031 3.01x 0.00000000
11:40AM, Nov 3, 2020 UTC panjojocom Yes 0.02194 3.01x 0.00000000
6:33AM, Nov 3, 2020 UTC Fist Yes 0.02 3.25x 0.00000000
6:12AM, Nov 3, 2020 UTC Mabuiutushi Yes 0.01 3.27x 0.00000000
12:01AM, Nov 3, 2020 UTC LSfreeloader Yes 0.01 3.30x 0.00000000
10:51PM, Nov 2, 2020 UTC magabetter Yes 0.0067 3.40x 0.00000000
10:22PM, Nov 1, 2020 UTC leen93 Yes 0.008 3.50x 0.00000000


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Guedez 10:56PM, Nov 10, 2020 UTC
@AHamilton If all of the states that use the "6000 vote flipping glitch prone voting machines" (or similar) all get a recount, I bet my ass off the popular vote flips. The biggest issue is that Trump do not need to do that to win, so I doubt he will even if he does manage to win, but who knows, it's 2020 and nothing makes sense. (I hope I don't double post)
AHamilton 1:04PM, Nov 10, 2020 UTC
@Guedez: Which state's numbers do you believe are wrong? You want me to provide links to all 50 state's official numbers?
Guedez 11:34AM, Nov 10, 2020 UTC
@AHamilton The media is not an official source for the elections, not a single state has confirmed the results yet and lawsuits are going off. I don't have a stake on this bet, so I won't go further than just discuss the subject on the comments, but you shouldn't assume what nobody know.
AHamilton 4:24AM, Nov 10, 2020 UTC
Here is Fox News summary of election results: It gives Biden nearly a 5 million vote lead.
AHamilton 4:13AM, Nov 10, 2020 UTC
@Guedez & @Loopylocksta. If you set up a a new bet that you host "Will the popular vote flip", and give me 5:1 odds on the popular vote flipping, I'll take you up on those odds. This way, if you are correct, you'll get more than your initial money back. If you don't want to do that, if the popular vote flips, I'll give you 3X what you bet initially just sent from me directly to your wallet. There is no way the popular vote is going to flip. Biden's lead has grown to nearly 5 million votes.
Guedez 7:30PM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
@AHamilton Trump got way more votes than Obama, there is no way to know how hard they cheated, it could very well change.
Loopylocksta 7:25PM, Nov 6, 2020 UTC
There is massive and blatant election fraud. Even popular vote could very well be overturned.
AHamilton 2:55PM, Nov 6, 2020 UTC
@Loopylocksta. OK. Fair enough. We will wait until the market closes. Note this is the popular vote market. I agree the electoral college should wait until the networks call it, but the popular vote is beyond a doubt at this point in my view.
Loopylocksta 1:40PM, Nov 6, 2020 UTC
I would like to wait. There is clear massive fraud going on and it would be fair to wait untill this aspect has been shored up.
AHamilton 7:35PM, Nov 5, 2020 UTC
So, the outcome of this market seems clear. Does anyone who participated in this market have any desire to wait for further votes to come in? Most of the remaining ballots are in blue states like California, New Jersey, and New York. In addition, they are mostly mail-ins, which skew Dem. However, if anyone wants to wait, I will.
AHamilton 4:29PM, Nov 4, 2020 UTC
This market was a hedge. In the case of a Biden victory, it paid off, and if Trump won, it would also pay off. He was at less than 1% to win the popular vote. Will obviously let the votes be tallied first.
d_d 1:36PM, Nov 4, 2020 UTC
This prop is like a 'vacuum cleaner' sucking up MAGA money.
Hodgkinson 12:23PM, Nov 4, 2020 UTC
Wow, great job on this market Hamilton. Can’t believe you got this many trump supporters to throw their money away... Vegas odds for trump winning popular vote must have been 10-1.
AHamilton 11:43AM, Nov 3, 2020 UTC
Also, let me know if you want larger amounts here, and I can see what I can do...
AHamilton 11:18AM, Nov 3, 2020 UTC
Well, with the mail-in ballots it's likely we won't have final results for a few days. However, if it isn't close, we'll know tonight. I just wanted there to be extra time just in case. However, if someone is winning the popular vote by, say, 5%, and there are only 2% left of votes to be counted, then the market will be resolved early if possible.
panjojocom 11:13AM, Nov 3, 2020 UTC
Why did this bet end after four days?
AHamilton 2:24AM, Nov 2, 2020 UTC
@leen93, if you offer 1.35, I'll see if I can find one bitcoin. More likely I'd just be able to find about .4 bitcoin though...
leen93 11:07PM, Nov 1, 2020 UTC
hamilton, which odds for which candidate are you thinking? i can bet big for good odds
AHamilton 8:03AM, Oct 23, 2020 UTC
If anyone wants to make a bigger bet, let me know, and I'll be happy to oblige;)

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