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Will NASA record 2023 as the hottest year on record?

Will NASA record 2023 as the hottest year on record?
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By
leen93
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Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for 2023 shows an increase of 1.03°C or greater when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Decision Logic

An anomaly of 1.03°C or greater for 2023 will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether prior years' figures are revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2023" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.

448
CLOSING IN2023-12-31 21:40:00

3:42AM, Jul 1, 2023 UTC

9:40PM, Dec 31, 2023 UTC

8:40AM, Jan 7, 2024 UTC

RESOLVED AT 1:44PM, Jan 7, 2024 UTC

Offered Volume: 0.0100
Backed Volume: 0.0100

This bet has been resolved!

The outcome was "Yes"

Yes
Volume
0.01
# Bets
1
No
Volume
0
# Bets
0

Placed Bets

Time User Option Bet Amount Odds Payout
8:00PM, Jul 7, 2023 UTC planetnine Yes 0.01 2.00x 0.01940000

Discussion

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Avalon 7:18PM, Jan 13, 2024 UTC
Changed resolution to YES as per source.
Avalon 7:56PM, Jan 10, 2024 UTC
The 2023 data is not yet out as per a report we received. Other publications are reporting big jumps in data, so this will be resolved as Yes but we will wait a few more days for the official source as mentioned in the logic to update first.
freedom 8:03AM, Dec 2, 2023 UTC
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/2023-set-hottest-year-record-un-says-rcna127540
freedom 8:02AM, Dec 2, 2023 UTC
Summary of this yes man its a hot year

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