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Will Satoshi Nakamoto's identity finally be revealed?

Will Satoshi Nakamoto's identity finally be revealed?


With recent news of the possibility of his identity being made public, will the real Satoshi finally be revealed?

Decision Logic

Consensus must be made via Gavin Andresen confirming Satoshi's identity. And or through Satoshi signing a message with the private key that holds the genesis block. One of these two requirements (or both) must be completed for this bet to resolve as "yes." If they do not then the bet resolves as "no." Early outcome is possible.

CLOSING IN2017-01-01 22:00:00

11:01PM, Apr 11, 2016 UTC

10:00PM, Jan 1, 2017 UTC

10:00PM, Feb 1, 2017 UTC

RESOLVED AT 4:03AM, Feb 2, 2017 UTC

Total Volume: 5.788

This bet has been resolved!

The outcome was "No"

5.78838299 was split between 33 bettors.
# of Bets:4
# of Bets:33


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kolotoure77294 7:43AM, Feb 3, 2017 UTC
@Avalon @BetMoose Sort your transaction fees out please. Blocks are full. I've been paid out with 12 satoshis/byte which is not enough to get confirmed any time soon!
lewren 8:29AM, Jan 8, 2017 UTC
@praine True. He starts with "I do believe". Continues on with, "Although its impossible to prove something like that 100% ..." Possession of a key from the first block really doesn't prove anything.
praine 4:57AM, Jul 17, 2016 UTC
Yes, for him. A personal belief, and he himself presented it as a personal belief. Changes nothing. Anyone who watches that video will see that this is merely a personal belief and not a statement of confirmation.
kanzler_cool 12:19AM, Jul 17, 2016 UTC
Decision logic: "Consensus must be made via Gavin Andresen confirming Satoshi's identity." Gavin about Craig Wright: "For me he proved it beyond any reasonable doubt." I am not in this bet. It is just startling to see that this bet is not resolved.
topnotch 1:21AM, Jul 16, 2016 UTC
@praine, @protus, @Avalon, if we're looking for Gavin to explicitly use the word "confirm" or "confirmation", then that should be stated in the official Decision Logic. Otherwise there will always be the argument that other words don't mean the same thing.
praine 12:11AM, Jul 16, 2016 UTC
That changes nothing. The point is that he didn't confirm anything. Ironically enough, the quote you included points directly to "no confirmation", so thanks for your contribution.
topnotch 10:26PM, Jul 15, 2016 UTC
After numerous web searches, I have concluded that Gavin Andresen has never said that he has changed his mind that Craig Wright is Satoshi. In this report ( he's quoted saying it was a mistake to publish his blog post, but then he's quoted saying "It’s possible that I’m wrong [about Craig Wright], but I don’t think I am." Gavin regrets only his blog posting, not his belief that Craig is Satoshi.
protus 5:29PM, Jul 15, 2016 UTC
@Avalon, I agree.
Avalon 4:27PM, Jul 15, 2016 UTC
As far as we know, Gavin also apologized and seemed misled by his 'belief', which we agree with @praine regarding the 'confirmation' aspect of this prop. Many were 'fairly certain' that Wright was Satoshi, but no consensus was reached because there was no confirmation; that technicality matters. -Adam
praine 6:50PM, Jun 28, 2016 UTC
Decision logic seems pretty clear to me. Gavin has not made a statement confirming the identity of Satoshi Nakomoto, he merely said he "believed" he knew the identity of Satoshi Nakomoto. Belief and confirmation are two totally different things.
topnotch 9:27PM, Jun 25, 2016 UTC
Gavin Andresen has already stated: "I believe Craig Steven Wright is the person who invented Bitcoin." (see his personal blog at Although he has been quoted by others as apparently reconsidering his statements, he has not directly recanted his belief on his blog or his twitter account. Therefore the Decision Logic for this bet should be made less ambiguous as to what type of statements from Gavin Andresen will resolve the bet.

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