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Will Bitcoin hit $50,000 before Dec 2021?

Will Bitcoin hit $50,000 before Dec 2021?
Category:
Bitcoin
By
sanko
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Description

New bitcoin price bet:
Will Bitcoin hit $50,000 or at least $30,000 before Dec 31 2021? This proposition is leech protected: see decision logic for details!

Decision Logic

"YES" if the price is strictly above $50,000 at any point between now and Dec 31 2021 00:00 UTC, using the Bitstamp exchange as the point of reference. "NO but will reach 30,000" if the price never goes above $50,000 during the time period but is strictly above $30,000 at any point of time. "NO" if the price never goes above $30,000. In case of Bitcoin fork and chain split "Bitcoin" is the most valuable bitcoin chain. If Bitstamp price is unavailable, then Bitfinex price will be used. Early resolution is possible.
Leech protection:
In case of YES outcome: "YES" bets within 30 days of the "YES" outcome will be refunded.
In case if NO outcome: no refunds.

4894
CLOSING IN2021-01-17 12:30:00

3:09PM, Apr 29, 2020 UTC

12:30PM, Jan 17, 2021 UTC

3:35PM, Feb 16, 2021 UTC

Early Outcome

RESOLVED AT 5:25AM, Feb 17, 2021 UTC

Total Volume: 3.206

This bet has been resolved!

The outcome was "YES"

3.20565211 was split between 46 bettors.
YES
Volume:1.677
23.76322749
# of Bets:46
NO but will reach 30,000
Volume:0.6066
9.04202226
# of Bets:36
NO
Volume:0.9219
20.85505513
# of Bets:36

Discussion

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Avalon 6:00AM, Feb 18, 2021 UTC
In other words, you either say 'all wagers up to the outcome date are equally at risk' (which would include a lot of last minute leech wagers), or 'none of the wagers around one of the outcomes are at risk' (this bet) which protects the earlier bettors which is what sanko wanted when he created this in April 2020. Hope that clarifies!
Avalon 5:58AM, Feb 18, 2021 UTC
Hi guys, although we *can* refund specific wagers, we do not have an automated way to set this up when an early resolution occurs. An early resolution pushes the 'bet deadline' date, which affects all wagers, and is only fair. Although we understand the leech protection, it is unfair to claim/capture those who would be risking coins near one of the outcome options vs those who aren't. You would be discouraging 'No' bets entirely while encouraging leechers if this was the policy in the future.
FreedomOfTrade 1:31AM, Feb 18, 2021 UTC
Well. We'll see what mods do. My coinies come in in 4h anyways.
tmsbtc 12:22AM, Feb 18, 2021 UTC
One other point regarding the cutoff date and not being able to adjust this to reflect to the correct outcome, I would think BetMoose admins should be able to do something about it. After all, they do take a 3% fee for providing this service, so they should be able to manually adjust the outcomes.
tmsbtc 9:17PM, Feb 17, 2021 UTC
@FreedomOfTrade - I placed an anonymous bet in the middle of last year.
codylundin69 8:05PM, Feb 17, 2021 UTC
Ive lost all of my bit***s because i missread it. I guess i was still right in my eyes as as it was still under 30 before new year :(
FreedomOfTrade 3:41PM, Feb 17, 2021 UTC
damn it, I meant @tmsbtc
FreedomOfTrade 3:40PM, Feb 17, 2021 UTC
If the date is moved forward to Jan 21st yes, one leech gets paid, but a tiny amount, since he only put in B0.00012, while the 2 "No but 30k" bets put in B0.007 combined. That's 58&1/3 times more. Less money on the hands of the "undeserving". No offense. I see you have no bets on this account @tmsbyc, are you the/one of the anonymous bettors that would loose on this?
tmsbtc 1:40PM, Feb 17, 2021 UTC
@sanko Only the 4 individual "No but will reach $30k" bets should not be refunded. It makes no sense to "move [the] cut off date" for everyone "[I]n case [they] can not remove only yes bets" because then the "Yes" leeches would get paid. I'd rather the 4 "No but will reach $30k" get refunded than leeches get paid.
sanko 5:24AM, Feb 17, 2021 UTC
@BetMoose @Avalon These four "No but will reach 30000" bets should not be refunded: Jan 20 0.001 Jan 21 0.006 Jan 26 0.05 Feb 2 0.01 In case you can not remove only yes bets please move cut off date to Jan 21 (so 2 of these 4 are included) or Feb 2 (so 4/4 are included + 3 small yes bets). This will be closer to decision logic.
FreedomOfTrade 4:16AM, Feb 17, 2021 UTC
Reported to mod. As I wrote to them; It's not much but would be nice if this was addressed.
sirlanka 10:04PM, Feb 16, 2021 UTC
BetMoose doesn't have a function to remove only certain bets. They always have a cut off date and remove all bets after.
vect0r85 4:34PM, Feb 16, 2021 UTC
Agree with tmsbtc. Bet logic says that only Yes bets will be refunded.
tmsbtc 3:49PM, Feb 16, 2021 UTC
None of the “No but will reach $30k” should be refunded. That’s not in the decision logic. Only the “Yes” bets should get refunded.
BingoBoingo 1:47PM, Feb 16, 2021 UTC
And done!
sirlanka 1:00PM, Feb 16, 2021 UTC
50k reached on Bitstamp. Bet resolves as Yes and all bets after January 17 should be deleted as per Decision Logic
FreedomOfTrade 1:30PM, Feb 14, 2021 UTC
I'll just sell one satoshi to a friend at $51k and make bank then.
sirlanka 12:38PM, Feb 14, 2021 UTC
Decision logic says ""YES" if the price is strictly above $50,000 at any point". So one trade over 50k resolves the bet as Yes.
cancerbola 6:21AM, Feb 14, 2021 UTC
So does it have to close a day candle above 50k or can it just wick out even on the 1min and come back down and still resolve as a yes?
cancerbola 6:21AM, Feb 14, 2021 UTC
So does it have to close a day candle above 50k or can it just wick out even on the 1min and come back down and still resolve as a yes?
FreedomOfTrade 10:54PM, Jan 31, 2021 UTC
@iddiaci Here, I made this: https://www.betmoose.com/bet/btc-ath-in-2021-5470
FreedomOfTrade 8:40PM, Jan 31, 2021 UTC
@iddiaci I can put in a buck for the lols. I admit "a couple of months" is BS. Still stand by ~400k ATH peak, but as I commented on the bet it takes a year or so. Let me correct that; Will hit $350k b4 2022.
cancerbola 11:33AM, Jan 29, 2021 UTC
Man, fck Elon Musk if it breaks 50k.
d_d 4:29PM, Jan 7, 2021 UTC
@TeamHans you simply put your money on the wrong horse. Perhaps, if you try some other bet and put just a fraction of what was so recklessly gambled away, it might be possible to make it back! I recommend this one and "NO" option in particular: https://www.betmoose.com/bet/donald-trump-charged-in-2021-leech-protected-5247#bets-1
TeamHans 11:35AM, Jan 7, 2021 UTC
To all - please note Betmoose has just wrongfully, prematurely resolved another bet related to the Presidency. I would encourage everyone NOT to bet with Betmoose until they stop following arbitrary deadlines and ignoring decision logics. Thank you.
codylundin69 10:13PM, Dec 17, 2020 UTC
I thought this ment the end of december 2020 not another year from now
iddiaci 12:06AM, Dec 17, 2020 UTC
@FreedomOfTrade I have created a bet for whether btc will hit $400k before the end of March 2021. That is more than fair as you said it would hit 400k "in a couple of months or so" in Nov 25 2020. Here is the link: https://www.betmoose.com/bet/will-bitcoin-hit-400-000-before-april-2021-5324#bets-1 I challenge you to put your money where your mouth is and bet yes. I will match any amount you bet up to 1 btc and bet no. Or you can admit to talking out of your ass.
KennethJones 9:35PM, Dec 4, 2020 UTC
Nice bet with good choices. Going to ponder this one for a bit
FreedomOfTrade 9:18AM, Dec 3, 2020 UTC
I guess "Before New-year's eve" would be the best way to describe it.
sanko 2:56PM, Dec 1, 2020 UTC
@gabbello "Dec 31 2021 00:00" is correct

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