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Will Courts Overturn the 2020 Presidential Election?
Will Courts Overturn the 2020 Presidential Election?
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Description
Joe Biden has been declared president elect by the media. He has won PA, it looks like he won GA, and other swing states. Do you think the courts will reverse vote counts to the point that Donald Trump remains president?
Decision Logic
Currently Joe Biden is the presumptive President-Elect. If through decisions by courts, the vote counts get changed to the degree that Donald Trump actually wins the presidency by flipping enough previously called states... then YES will win.
If Joe Biden remains the president elect then NO wins.
This will be called December 14th or when there is no further pathway for court cases to reverse the race.
CLOSING IN2020-11-21 08:00:00
6:27PM, Nov 7, 2020 UTC
8:00AM, Nov 21, 2020 UTC
8:00AM, Dec 14, 2020 UTC
RESOLVED AT 2:04PM, Dec 14, 2020 UTC
Total Volume: 2.897
This bet has been resolved!
The outcome was "No"
2.89668454 was split between 55 bettors.
YES
| Volume: | 0.4764 |
| # of Bets: | 23 |
NO
| Volume: | 2.420 |
| # of Bets: | 55 |
Discussion
Andyzzle
8:13PM, Dec 14, 2020 UTC
@TeamColtra I too have a software dev brain but that's precisely why I'd interpret the logic differently. Because a human reads the conditions and places the bets and not a computer.
Or means or.
Or earlier means or earlier.
If you offer two options you can't just dismiss the second because the first is met. Not in spoken language.
Avalon
7:58PM, Dec 14, 2020 UTC
@Andyzzle Great example; if there was a schedule that said 'the boat leaves at 2pm' and the attendants confirmed 'we are leaving either by 2pm or whenever you're done packing'. We would interpret that as leaving by 2pm or earlier if you are finished packing. I believe the wording you wish to use for your example is 'We are leaving by 2pm if you're done packing' or 'we are leaving when you finish packing *and* at/after 2pm'. The missing word 'either' in the former example is implied
TeamColtra
7:57PM, Dec 14, 2020 UTC
Also again, I REALLY would appreciate everyone's feedback here https://forms.gle/FQufzKDRWs2tZjB46 Even if it's your disagreement of my decision logic, it helps me better word things going forward. I will pick someone (at random) and give them $10. Maybe that's more than your winnings in this bet! :P
TeamColtra
7:53PM, Dec 14, 2020 UTC
Maybe I have programmer brain but yes, I would assume it means "we're leaving at 2PM... this is the deadline we have to be out the door by. If you are done packing sooner than that, then we'll leave sooner".
Andyzzle
7:43PM, Dec 14, 2020 UTC
@Avalon
"We're leaving at 2PM or whenever you're done packing"
Do you interpret this sentence as "We're leaving at 2PM or before that if you're done packing"?
Or do you interpret it as "We're leaving at 2PM or whenever you're done packing?"
You guys are making your own rules up as you go.
Avalon
7:30PM, Dec 14, 2020 UTC
@Andyzzle Please re-read the decision logic carefully and observe the timeline. We only extend timeline or pause payouts when there is a conflict between the logic and timeline, and/or if the outcome is unclear. None of those conditions apply here.
jeb_bush
7:28PM, Dec 14, 2020 UTC
@Andyzzle this refusal to accept any outcome except the one you want is tiring. There is no room for interpretation, the logic in black and white says
'This will be called December 14th or when there is no further pathway for court cases to reverse the race.'
It's December 14th, the entirety of the clause preceding the word OR has a true state, so the proposition is resolvable. Zero interpretation, 100% clarity.
Andyzzle
7:17PM, Dec 14, 2020 UTC
@Avalon who says that one of two has to be true? This isn't programming code, it's written language.
If TeamColtra had specified "November 8th or when there is no further pathway for courts to reverse the count", would you have resolved on November 8th because one condition was met despite courts still having plenty of time? What kind of Logic is this??
Andyzzle
7:13PM, Dec 14, 2020 UTC
@Avalon there are two obvious choices here. You can extend the date until the decision logic is fully met and there is no room for interpretation or you interpret the decision logic by adding words that are not there.
The first doesn't change the status quo but the second screws people over that expected a fair bet that would be decided as per the literal decision logic.
I do not understand why you'd pick the latter.
Avalon
7:12PM, Dec 14, 2020 UTC
@Andyzzle One of those 2 conditions had to be true before the outcome date as specified on the timeline. One of those conditions has now been met. Do not bet on props you disagree on the timeline with. To your second point; we are not debating the ability of a state court to overturn a district, however, this will not overturn the race, as per the prop.
Andyzzle
7:09PM, Dec 14, 2020 UTC
@Avalon The decision logic does not state "or earlier". It states "or".
I strongly object to your interpretation by adding words that are not there.
And whether flipping of single states decides it or not is not part of the decision logic. The decision logic says "if courts change the vote counts to the degree". You assume that it has to happen by flipping votes of single states. Courts can also dismiss entire states from voting or find other solutions that fit the decision logic.
Avalon
7:00PM, Dec 14, 2020 UTC
The logic, as written, uses the operative "OR". We agree with TeamColtra's resolution and his logic below. The resolution was set to one of: Dec 14th, or earlier if no pathway exists in court. Secondly, like the host mentioned, a single state will not decide the election. In our eyes, this prop's main intent was about the SCOTUS and they threw the case out this weekend.
Andyzzle
6:47PM, Dec 14, 2020 UTC
@Avalon care to chime in? We seem to have a dispute over when this bet can be called. Page 1 of the comments explains the issue.
Andyzzle
6:42PM, Dec 14, 2020 UTC
Your decision logic says
"If Joe Biden remains the president elect then NO wins."
+
"Or when there's no further pathway"
The process of electing the president is finished in January when the votes are counted in the presence of House and Senate Representatives. Until then, things can happen - particularly in highly irregular elections such as this one. "Things" that constitute "further pathways", as specified in the decision logic.
Andyzzle
6:33PM, Dec 14, 2020 UTC
It's like saying "We'll leave at 2PM or whenever you're ready".
Whenever you're ready doesn't have to be before 2PM. Whenever you're ready is whenever you're ready.
Frankly I don't understand the issue here. It is almost certain that it'll resolve as No but the conditions for it to be called aren't 100% met yet. Resolving now is resolving prematurely by the decision logic you yourself specified.
Andyzzle
6:28PM, Dec 14, 2020 UTC
The second thing I disagree is your interpretation of "or when there is no further pathway for court cases to reverse the race".
'We'll resolve on date X or when there's no further pathway" in no way or form indicates that condition B has to happen before condition A. This isn't programming where only one of the conditions has to be true. They are two separate conditions that both need to fulfilled.
Andyzzle
6:23PM, Dec 14, 2020 UTC
@TeamColtra. I disagree on two things. First being that votes being dismissed don't count as votes changed. Of course they are votes changed. If SCOTUS decided that there was enough voter fraud in a particular state to throw the votes out then the total number of votes would be reduced and therefore *changed* by the very definition of the word.
I agree that it has to be done by court decision but you don't specify what kind of court and military courts are courts too.
TeamColtra
6:02PM, Dec 14, 2020 UTC
The key bit here for this bet (which is changed in the other bet) is that this bet's logic is clearly stated "This will be called December 14th or when there is no further pathway for court cases to reverse the race." ... "OR"... is the important word. It means only one of these statements must be true. The honest truth is both of them are true, but they don't need to both be true. It's December 14th. This was the end date that everyone agreed to in the bet.
TeamColtra
6:02PM, Dec 14, 2020 UTC
The key bit here for this bet (which is changed in the other bet) is that this bet's logic is clearly stated "This will be called December 14th or when there is no further pathway for court cases to reverse the race." ... "OR"... is the important word. It means only one of these statements must be true. The honest truth is both of them are true, but they don't need to both be true. It's December 14th. This was the end date that everyone agreed to in the bet.
TeamColtra
5:46PM, Dec 14, 2020 UTC
Donald Trump could just say "i won the election" and maybe enough people follow him that we still have him as president... He still lost the election, he just maintained the presidency.
TeamColtra
5:44PM, Dec 14, 2020 UTC
At that point @Andyzzle it's not vote counts getting changed though. It's not the courts throwing away votes, it's the courts overturning the election on other grounds.
Even if we count the supreme court changing the electors votes (which could be fair, i don't state whose votes the court has to change) there are no legal arguments being made for that. If executive order and Mashal Law takes place that doesn't change the votes that were cast, and in fact that's why my wording is so specific
Andyzzle
4:36PM, Dec 14, 2020 UTC
The decision logic states that "If through decisions by courts, the vote counts get changed to the degree..."
The last date for the vote counts to be changed is when they are read out loud by VP Pence. Then they are final and if courts don't intervene until then, there are truly no further pathways and it's truly settled.
As such, i reported the Bet and encourage others to do the same.
Andyzzle
4:33PM, Dec 14, 2020 UTC
That avenue falls flat 45 days after the election though so that'd be the 18th of December.
I agree with the basic sentiment that the bet will most likely resolve as "No", but as per decision logic not all pathways are exhausted yet. As I said, it's been a highly unusual election. There is also a second bet up that is practically the same and will be called on December 7th so I don't see why we shouldn't extend this one for a few days as well.
Andyzzle
4:29PM, Dec 14, 2020 UTC
@TeamColtra I think that you were very neutral in this bet. But I still disagree that there are no further pathways here. "Or when there is no further pathway to call this bet" does not have to happen before December 14th. It's been a highly irregular election and there are still lawsuits being filed. There is also the possibility of military courts through Executive Order 13848 that deals with foreign interference in an election. That is also being discussed by Trump's legal team.
cryptoman
2:49PM, Dec 14, 2020 UTC
Thanks @TeamColtra . A fun ride indeed. Thanks for this bet.
TeamColtra
4:13PM, Dec 13, 2020 UTC
I would love for everyone involved to fill out my post bet survey. I want to run the best political bets on the site so I'm offering $10 in BTC to a random person who fills this out this month.
https://forms.gle/FQufzKDRWs2tZjB46
TeamColtra
3:58PM, Dec 13, 2020 UTC
Either way the bet ends tomorrow. I want to thank everyone for betting on this, it was a fun ride.
TeamColtra
3:58PM, Dec 13, 2020 UTC
Either way the bet ends tomorrow. I want to thank everyone for betting on this, it was a fun ride.
TeamColtra
3:57PM, Dec 13, 2020 UTC
To start, the condition is called December 14th OR when no pathways exist. That means 14th at the latest. If it was 14 at the earliest, i would have used and.
We all agree that the courts won't make a massive ruling over the weekend, especially not now on a Sunday. BetMoose likely won't clear it until tomorrow anyway, but i can't see any reason not to clear it now.
There might be other pathways to a Trump victory but it's not the courts
praine
10:45AM, Dec 13, 2020 UTC
To add something relevant, I think this should be resolved at Dec. 14, as it is consistent with the decision logic and the deadline which all bettors agreed to when they placed their bet. There is an extended bet for those that want to wait 'til the bitter end (though nothing is going to change - I agree that the 'no further pathway' clause has been met too).
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