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Will Ethereum hard-fork to circumvent the DAO hack?

Will Ethereum hard-fork to circumvent the DAO hack?
Category: 
Bitcoin
By 
pvrooyen
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Description

On 17-June an attacker managed to find a flaw in the deployed smart-contract code of Slock.it's DAO (Decentralised Autonomous Organisation) stealing millions of dollars. A hard fork have been proposed and its up to the majority of the Ethereum miners to accept or reject this proposal. The community is divided. If the hard fork is enforced the attacker gets nothing and all DAO investors get their money back but at the expense of Ethereum's reputation by not maintaining decentralised principles.

Decision Logic

If the Ethereum network hard forks before the outcome date the bet will resolve to YES. Any soft forks will be disregarded.

CLOSING IN2016-07-12 10:00:00

10:03AM, Jun 18, 2016 UTC

10:00AM, Jul 12, 2016 UTC

10:00AM, Jul 15, 2016 UTC

RESOLVED AT 10:01AM, Jul 15, 2016 UTC

Total Volume: 11.27

This bet has been resolved!

The outcome was "No"

11.26510753 was split between 9 bettors.
YES
Volume:1.000
2.09023796
# of Bets:18
NO
Volume:10.27
12.84945
# of Bets:9

Discussion

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praine 12:25AM, Aug 16, 2016 UTC
@praine I mean no percent. See here: https://www.betmoose.com/bet/bitcoin-to-top-900-before-sep-2016-1879#bets-1 You can see the last guy betting is literally geting nothing, and if he bet 100 BTC it would be the exact same thing (because I checked earlier). He should've checked that before he bet.
regexlove 6:18PM, Aug 15, 2016 UTC
@praine you mean almost no/little ROI in percent
praine 6:53AM, Jul 20, 2016 UTC
@regexlove In that example that you posted, the time multiplier at 1x would mean that someone trying to bet on Dec 31 would get no ROI.
regexlove 2:09AM, Jul 20, 2016 UTC
example: https://www.betmoose.com/bet/bitcoin-will-reach-a-value-of-2016usd-in-the-year-2016-1343#bets-2 So should i be tempted to deposit all my bitcoin to betmoose on december 31? I reported it, hope you do too.
regexlove 1:59AM, Jul 20, 2016 UTC
yes, many bets will make more sense with a short betting period, long before outcome date! just harder to be popular bets then, so important question generally.
regexlove 1:48AM, Jul 20, 2016 UTC
"at least for another ~27 days" https://blog.ethereum.org/2016/06/17/critical-update-re-dao-vulnerability/
regexlove 1:46AM, Jul 20, 2016 UTC
"July 27. That is the first date where ETH could leave the darkDAO (hack on June 16 + 27 days creation period + 14 days proposal period" https://www.reddit.com/r/ethereum/comments/4r2f73/when_is_the_dao_hard_fork_end_da Jul 16 was the first date any of the legit DAO's ever could have withdraw but no other already existing DAO's attempted to be a thief and they secured all funds the same way the hacker did.
pvrooyen 6:21AM, Jul 17, 2016 UTC
...I gladly accept imperfections with this bet but its important to point out that Decision logic might get less ideal as time passes in many bets to come. I think for ex. the option for the author to end betting early should be considered as a feature for this site. If that was available I would have prevented most of the large NO bets towards the end.
pvrooyen 6:19AM, Jul 17, 2016 UTC
@Avalon I agree with what you say except 'host should have realised that July 21 was the date'. On creation of this bet around 15 Jul WAS the date. The creator of Ethereum Vitalik himself stated before 16-Jul as the cleanest 1a fork option. Only later a 1b fork was proposed with a later deadline. The many yes votes and zero comments wit a problem with the date in the early days of the bet is no coincidence - there was no problem with the date initially.
Avalon 2:37AM, Jul 17, 2016 UTC
Also, a 'hard fork' is a technical term that refers to a piece of code being run on machines that creates a blockchain that exceeds (in length) a previously run blockchain. Agreement or social consensus are irrelevant to what is a network 'hard fork'.
Avalon 2:35AM, Jul 17, 2016 UTC
We agree with the spirit and intention of the bet, however, as it was written, it is unfortunate that we must see this as black and white and resolve as No. The host should have done his research and realized that July 21 should have been the true outcome date. However, we have over a dozen wagers who have accepted the 'before July 15' conditions, and those who bet No were correct in this regard. We cannot fudge the dates after previous users agree to them.
pvrooyen 10:07AM, Jul 15, 2016 UTC
Bet resolves to no. Although around 15-Jul was generally thought to be the deadline for a fork leading the early days off the hack, some white-hat counter attacks and dark-hat re-attacks, etc made the situation more complicated and the community opted for a later (although may it be a less cleaner) fork - giving more time for solutions and testing. Now forking around 20-Jul.
praine 7:51PM, Jul 14, 2016 UTC
http://imgur.com/lqmLLns
pvrooyen 8:34AM, Jul 14, 2016 UTC
Edit in 2 comments back: It only started seeming likely that a 15-July fork - should read: It only started seeming likely that a 15-July fork would fail a few days ago (requested mod...
pvrooyen 8:27AM, Jul 14, 2016 UTC
...as for the comments on when is the hard fork it will be a relatively clear point (within some timespan perhaps). A network hard forks is when nodes start rejecting old version blocks. In my opinion when the chain rejecting old blocks gets longer than the old chain - then a hardfork has happened.
pvrooyen 8:23AM, Jul 14, 2016 UTC
Yes bet was not setup perfectly (newby first bet) and this was done on the day of the hack (hindsight is a bastard). However 15 June was and still is an important date (Google it). It was the only date where all the funds could be secured and there will likely be some loss because its not in time. It only started seeming likely that a 15-July fork(requested mod to early end betting but no response). Although not perfect I think this should resolve to 'NO' without adjustment (btw I voted yes)
kolotoure77294 3:11PM, Jul 13, 2016 UTC
That is all my opinion. In the end it's up to the mods. It's a shame this bet wasn't set up clearly.
kolotoure77294 3:09PM, Jul 13, 2016 UTC
3. The decision logic says "If the Ethereum network hard forks before the outcome date the bet will resolve to YES" and because a hard fork is the mining of a block which breaks consensus rules then this bet resolves as NO unless that happens before 15th July. No where does it say will the Ethereum network 'agree to hard fork'.... it says "the Ethereum network hard forks before the outcome date" which needs the mining of a block which activates the hard fork.
kolotoure77294 3:06PM, Jul 13, 2016 UTC
You're right, it wasn't well defined. I agree with you it was a bad proposition but I still think NO wins based on how it was set up. 1. A fork is successful once a block which isn't compatible with older versions is mined and the economic majority (miners, exchanges, users) agree and follow that new chain. The point at which it becomes successful is the mining of the block which breaks consensus with old versions. __ 2. The Ethereum network is the longest chain with an economic majority.
regexlove 2:53PM, Jul 13, 2016 UTC
but if it is/can be resolved however then the outcome should be determined carefully, considering different metrics or answering the open questions in consensus of bettors
regexlove 2:47PM, Jul 13, 2016 UTC
so i believe the bet would only qualify stating a specific criterion. It should have required / defined anything specific (example: ">60% of miners"(by July 15)). And this would have changed participation.
regexlove 2:41PM, Jul 13, 2016 UTC
3. The logic does not even ask for a successful/finished hard fork. But just if one will happen. Now one is clearly happening - but it is a process happening running for some time. it doesnt qualify for a Yes or No question anymore, like it may seemed to do on June 18 (hard fork vs soft fork). Now you can only answer anymore once this process is done.
regexlove 2:37PM, Jul 13, 2016 UTC
1. When is a fork successfull? >90% of miners? >50% of miners? What if it would split into two networks? One backed by 49.9% + 99% of funds voted at http://carbonvote.com ? (As said: 2. who or what is the "Ethereum network", Is it the computers - or the philosophical foundation of it, the opinion of the people, who already decided.)
regexlove 2:26PM, Jul 13, 2016 UTC
Yes, Kolotoure sounds agreeable/reasonable generally and I would survive the loss. But please take the time to dissect the decision Logic word for word, since it is the law of the bet and it lacks precision.
Avalon 1:14PM, Jul 13, 2016 UTC
Kolotoure is right here folks. Bet is pretty clear to resolve based on the logic and time specified. Specifically, "will dao hard fork by Jul 15?". Looks like it'll be No. We welcome anyone to recreate the proposition with a longer time frame.
kolotoure77294 10:30AM, Jul 13, 2016 UTC
I agree that the outcome date for this bet was unnecessarily early and as a result NO will win this proposition and then later this month Ethereum will probably hard fork. But those are the terms of this bet, the DAO had bad code, this bet was set up badly. Learn lesson, move on.
regexlove 9:26AM, Jul 13, 2016 UTC
to make it easy, payouts should just hold a while before resolving NO. (Obviously, the bet can clearly / easily resolve NO, if waiting longer to confirm) But otherwise it will be impossible to define yes or no and bet may be better to be canceled (Alternatively, i guess outcome date could be edited and NO-bets be given the chance to reduce their amounts today)
regexlove 9:10AM, Jul 13, 2016 UTC
The ethereum blockchain, as stored on computers, may hard fork - but on July 16 or so.... But what is the "ethereum network" mentioned in the decision logic? The ethereum network, society already forked, voter turnout isnt very high yet but increasing and statistically representative for sufficient social consensus.
regexlove 9:06AM, Jul 13, 2016 UTC
Assuming most people came here for the title, the outcome date was misleadingly (uncessarily early) since there are several more days left to undo the hack. Maybe the author (hi pvrooyen!) didn't research the date well (else they would/should have emphasized the date.)
pvrooyen 6:12AM, Jul 2, 2016 UTC
I unfortunately don't know how to put it differently. The Ethereum block-chain is the authority and the point in time = the point in time where the chain running on new (DAO fix) software is longer than the chain running on old software. Perhaps its at a certain block number - nothing is finalised yet as far as I know. However it may play out I am confident that that disputes - whether it happened before the outcome date or after - is virtually zero.

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