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Trump Wins One of PA, NV, AZ, MI, WI, or GA?

Trump Wins One of PA, NV, AZ, MI, WI, or GA?
Category:
Politics
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Description

Will Donald Trump end up winning, by December 6th, one of the following states:
Pennsylvania
Nevada
Arizona
Michigan
Wisconsin
Georgia

If the President can flip the results and be leading in any of these states in the 2020 Presidential election.

Added: Leech Protected Mechanism. If a state flips to Yes, at that point this market will be suspended so that people can't jump on Yes after the fact. Conversely, if Trump were to concede, we will stop this market to protect No holders. We will refund all bets placed after a state flipping or Trump conceding to protect Yes/No holders, respectively.

Decision Logic

This bet will resolve as "Yes" if Donald Trump can end up winning any of the above states by the deadline date, according to the official state sources.

CLOSING IN2020-12-03 04:40:00

7:46AM, Nov 14, 2020 UTC

4:40AM, Dec 3, 2020 UTC

9:45AM, Dec 6, 2020 UTC

RESOLVED AT 10:14AM, Dec 6, 2020 UTC

Total Volume: 1.963

This bet has been resolved!

The outcome was "No"

1.96328749 was split between 38 bettors.
YES
Volume:0.1770
0.4666991
# of Bets:18
NO
Volume:1.786
4.10017931
# of Bets:38

Discussion

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AHamilton 7:17PM, Dec 14, 2020 UTC
@atmosphere, you can go ahead and match the first $40 I have there... Then I'll put up more.
AHamilton 7:16PM, Dec 14, 2020 UTC
@atmosphere. OK, I'll put more up here: https://www.betmoose.com/bet/trump-wins-one-of-pa-nv-az-mi-wi-or-ga-5290#new. Will take me some time to send some cash here.
atmosphere 2:28PM, Dec 11, 2020 UTC
@atmosphere I would put up more money, but this is my first go at betting anything and I've already put up $400 on your other bet and $300 on a similar .
AHamilton 7:10AM, Dec 8, 2020 UTC
^write now i just have $40 there, as, lol, i found something else to bet the rest on, but if someone wants to throw down real money, I'll put it up.
AHamilton 7:08AM, Dec 8, 2020 UTC
@atmosphere. I could probably offer you up to $2,000 at 6.48. At 5:1, I could get you a coin.
atmosphere 12:51AM, Dec 8, 2020 UTC
Damn @AHamilton, what would you bet for a 31st deadline? I just lost fair-and-square with this bet ($100) so maybe you could offer a personal opinion?
AHamilton 6:29AM, Dec 7, 2020 UTC
I've offered anyone 6.48:1 odds on this prop with an extended deadline to December 31st. https://www.betmoose.com/bet/trump-wins-one-of-pa-nv-az-mi-wi-or-ga-5290 If you want me to throw down more money, I'm prepared to do so.
Andyzzle 12:37PM, Dec 6, 2020 UTC
I also only bet 100 bucks on this but yeah, if the decision logic says December 6th then it's fair to pay out. A loss is a loss. I do suggest putting the deadline in the title of the bet next time. There's probably a lot of others that placed their bets assuming it was about flipping the state and not the deadline.
vegai 11:40AM, Dec 6, 2020 UTC
We totally do mind, @thor7912. These things have been dragged on long enough. I'm already waiting for "Will Donald Trump be elected president in 2020" that was already resolved correctly over a week but still has not been settled. No more extended deadlines!
AHamilton 11:11AM, Dec 6, 2020 UTC
I have decided to extend this exact same bet here, with an extended deadline: https://www.betmoose.com/bet/trump-wins-one-of-pa-nv-az-mi-wi-or-ga-5290#new
AHamilton 11:10AM, Dec 6, 2020 UTC
@Ghoulbuns, if a state has flipped, please share a link to the official results. It does indeed look like 3-4 states are about to flip, but they did not flip by the deadline.
Ghoulbuns 11:03AM, Dec 6, 2020 UTC
3 of these states have state legislatures challenging the certification of electoral votes. This was called too early
AHamilton 10:15AM, Dec 6, 2020 UTC
If anyone is aware if a state has flipped to Trump, please say so, and link the official state level source.
AHamilton 10:13AM, Dec 6, 2020 UTC
Hey guys, here is the data according to the official sites. The deadline has past. Here is the official Georgia Sec of State site: https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/105369/web.264614/#/summary Here is PA: https://www.electionreturns.pa.gov/ Here is NV: https://silverstateelection.nv.gov/ AZ: https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/18/0 MI:https://mielections.us/election/results/2020GEN_CENR.html WI: https://elections.wi.gov/elections-voting/results The outcome here is clear.
thor7912 8:29AM, Dec 6, 2020 UTC
Extend the deadline! I'm sure the voters for NO won't mind that. They don't think it was rigged. Give it another week or two.
atmosphere 7:23AM, Dec 5, 2020 UTC
@CrazyBrazy -- well yeah, then again, many of us are learning about the election process as we go. I glanced over the Dec 6th deadline and assumed that he would eventually just flip one of these states. Oh well, I only bet $100 here. Ive got money on your hosted bet CrazyBrazy
CrazyBrazy 3:08AM, Dec 5, 2020 UTC
The deadline date wasn’t reasonable from the beginning.
atmosphere 10:37PM, Dec 4, 2020 UTC
I think the main argument for extending the deadline is how a lot of action is about to take place. This is due to the safe harbor deadline.
Guedez 7:18PM, Dec 4, 2020 UTC
Man, the whole video of voter fraud happening in GA basically proves there was enough fraud to flip it, yet it seems it will only actually get ruled as such after Dec 6... This will be the second election bet I lose to these things taking so long to get through courts.
CrazyBrazy 5:13PM, Dec 4, 2020 UTC
It’s only reasonable to delay the deadline. The states never flipped because they always were at Trump side. The cheating was already proved it’s just a matter of days until the legal side give their approval. My point is, the states already flipped before the deadline as it’s proven by tons of evidence that already existed before 6/12...
atmosphere 8:09AM, Dec 4, 2020 UTC
I see a future where one of the states flips shortly after December 6th
atmosphere 8:08AM, Dec 4, 2020 UTC
Today, the Supreme Court stated they are about to take action on PA if they don't resolve by Dec 9. Can we extend the deadline of this bet? https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/supreme-court-again-asked-to-block-biden-win-in-pennsylvania/2020/12/03/61143a0a-35c4-11eb-9699-00d311f13d2d_story.html
AHamilton 10:00AM, Nov 29, 2020 UTC
Atmosphere -- if the PA legislator certifies Donald Trump as the true winner of this election, as many believe, then this market will resolve as yes. It does in fact look like the PA legislature may do just that.
atmosphere 8:37PM, Nov 28, 2020 UTC
Yeah, Guedez, that's my thinking too. Oh well, I should've read this more carefully prior to betting $100 haha. Oh well, maybe I'll do better on my bet on the overall outcome of the election.
Guedez 8:18PM, Nov 28, 2020 UTC
The logic states "End Up winning" and "By December 6th", so it's possible it would 'count as the state flipping'. Unfortunately I personally think it wouldn't count. Not only that would cause the electoral voters sent by the state to change (and not the vote tally), it would also probably only pan out after the December 6th deadline. I guess it depends on how the PA legislators go about it.
atmosphere 1:38AM, Nov 28, 2020 UTC
How will this bet be decided if the PA legislator claims authority over the electors? This is actually happening.
ALEXWINS 12:17PM, Nov 26, 2020 UTC
can the deadline be moved for later at all or is it staying at December 6?? The fake media can claim he didn't win even if he's up in those states by December 6
AHamilton 6:56AM, Nov 22, 2020 UTC
@Avalon. Great, thanks. Yes holders -- if a state flips, we will resolve early.
Avalon 6:28PM, Nov 21, 2020 UTC
I don't believe you are referring to 'leech protection' but rather simply an early resolution. Obviously if one of the states flip, then the prop can be resolved at that time; the prop does not need to be run to the deadline.
Guedez 5:27PM, Nov 20, 2020 UTC
sounds perfect

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