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Who Will Win the 2024 Presidential Election?

Who Will Win the 2024 Presidential Election?
Category:
Politics
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Description

This is a market on who will win the 2024 US Presidential election.

Decision Logic

This market will resolve based on the results the 2024 according to official sources. If the election is contested, it will resolve when either (1) the results are confirmed by Congress (typically on January 6th), and if that does not happen then (2) Based on who actually gets sworn in and takes office.

CLOSING IN2024-11-06 05:00:00

11:00PM, Nov 14, 2023 UTC

5:00AM, Nov 6, 2024 UTC

9:04PM, Nov 11, 2024 UTC

Early Outcome

RESOLVED AT 3:06AM, Nov 12, 2024 UTC

Offered Volume: 2.298
Backed Volume: 3.568

This bet has been resolved!

The outcome was "Donald J. Trump "

Donald J. Trump
Volume
3.1698501
# Bets
26
Joseph R. Biden
Volume
0.02434133
# Bets
8
Other (including RFK, Jr.)
Volume
0.374085
# Bets
13

Placed Bets

Time User Option Bet Amount Odds Payout
3:42AM, Nov 6, 2024 UTC Anonymous Donald J. Trump 0.1923 1.52x 0.28352712
3:42AM, Nov 6, 2024 UTC Anonymous Donald J. Trump 0.2445 1.71x 0.40555215
3:36AM, Nov 6, 2024 UTC leen93 Donald J. Trump 0.2248 1.71x 0.37287576
3:34AM, Nov 6, 2024 UTC leen93 Donald J. Trump 0.0005 1.71x 0.00082935
3:34AM, Nov 6, 2024 UTC Megalodon Donald J. Trump 0.1 1.71x 0.16587000
3:33AM, Nov 6, 2024 UTC leen93 Donald J. Trump 0.00051157 1.71x 0.00084854
3:30AM, Nov 6, 2024 UTC leen93 Donald J. Trump 0.03 1.71x 0.04976100
3:11AM, Nov 6, 2024 UTC Anonymous Donald J. Trump 0.0005 1.71x 0.00082935
3:08AM, Nov 6, 2024 UTC Anonymous Donald J. Trump 0.001 1.71x 0.00165870
2:16AM, Nov 6, 2024 UTC Anonymous Donald J. Trump 0.0015 1.71x 0.00248805
7:18PM, Nov 5, 2024 UTC Anonymous Donald J. Trump 0.01 1.71x 0.01658700
7:12PM, Nov 5, 2024 UTC Anonymous Donald J. Trump 0.002 1.71x 0.00331740
7:11PM, Nov 5, 2024 UTC nsob Donald J. Trump 0.085 1.71x 0.14098950
6:46PM, Nov 5, 2024 UTC Megalodon Donald J. Trump 0.5 1.71x 0.82935000
10:45AM, Nov 5, 2024 UTC Anonymous Donald J. Trump 0.2081 1.71x 0.34517547
10:29AM, Nov 5, 2024 UTC Trev625 Other (including RFK, Jr.) 0.003465 2.02x 0.00000000
10:26AM, Nov 5, 2024 UTC Trev625 Other (including RFK, Jr.) 0.1428 2.40x 0.00000000
6:35PM, Nov 3, 2024 UTC nobody Other (including RFK, Jr.) 0.05 2.12x 0.00000000
1:22PM, Nov 3, 2024 UTC planetnine Other (including RFK, Jr.) 0.02 2.12x 0.00000000
8:39PM, Oct 27, 2024 UTC Zarathustra Donald J. Trump 0.0023 1.46x 0.00325726
9:12PM, Oct 26, 2024 UTC Zarathustra Donald J. Trump 0.002 1.46x 0.00283240
9:34AM, Oct 24, 2024 UTC kazanecki Donald J. Trump 0.03 1.49x 0.04335900
7:36AM, Oct 18, 2024 UTC Anonymous Other (including RFK, Jr.) 0.0028 2.02x 0.00000000
2:54AM, Oct 18, 2024 UTC Anonymous Other (including RFK, Jr.) 0.0001 2.02x 0.00000000
4:01PM, Oct 16, 2024 UTC Anonymous Donald J. Trump 1.2 1.46x 1.69944000
10:40PM, Oct 7, 2024 UTC Zarathustra Donald J. Trump 0.002 1.46x 0.00283240
12:45PM, Sep 30, 2024 UTC Anonymous Donald J. Trump 0.3 1.60x 0.46560000
1:14AM, Sep 11, 2024 UTC Anonymous Donald J. Trump 0.007 1.81x 0.01228990
1:14AM, Sep 11, 2024 UTC Anonymous Donald J. Trump 0.01 1.82x 0.01765400
4:30PM, Sep 10, 2024 UTC Anonymous Donald J. Trump 0.00306633 1.82x 0.00541330
10:43PM, Aug 29, 2024 UTC basserben1 Donald J. Trump 0.0016722 2.00x 0.00324407
11:58AM, Aug 15, 2024 UTC Anonymous Other (including RFK, Jr.) 0.04 1.64x 0.00000000
11:50AM, Aug 15, 2024 UTC Anonymous Other (including RFK, Jr.) 0.1 1.64x 0.00000000
12:03AM, Aug 15, 2024 UTC Anonymous Other (including RFK, Jr.) 0.0005 1.63x 0.00000000
2:51AM, Aug 6, 2024 UTC Anonymous Other (including RFK, Jr.) 0.00018 1.60x 0.00000000
9:31PM, Jul 21, 2024 UTC HChinaskiPUA Other (including RFK, Jr.) 0.008 2.17x 0.00000000
7:20PM, Jul 21, 2024 UTC Anonymous Other (including RFK, Jr.) 0.001 2.16x 0.00000000
7:09PM, Jul 19, 2024 UTC Golhoneybadger Joseph R. Biden 0.00155338 5.00x 0.00000000
10:04PM, Jul 18, 2024 UTC Anonymous Other (including RFK, Jr.) 0.00524 2.10x 0.00000000
6:07PM, Jun 18, 2024 UTC ContentConifer Joseph R. Biden 0.0085 1.90x 0.00000000
1:56PM, Jun 12, 2024 UTC Anonymous Donald J. Trump 0.0111 1.90x 0.02045730
9:37PM, Jun 8, 2024 UTC ContentConifer Joseph R. Biden 0.00257882 1.90x 0.00000000
11:16PM, Jun 3, 2024 UTC Golhoneybadger Joseph R. Biden 0.0003 1.85x 0.00000000
8:06PM, Jun 3, 2024 UTC ContentConifer Joseph R. Biden 0.00129888 1.85x 0.00000000
10:07AM, Jun 1, 2024 UTC Anonymous Joseph R. Biden 0.00011025 1.85x 0.00000000
10:06AM, Jun 1, 2024 UTC Anonymous Joseph R. Biden 0.005 1.85x 0.00000000
10:05AM, Jun 1, 2024 UTC Anonymous Joseph R. Biden 0.005 1.85x 0.00000000
See more

Discussion

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praine 6:48AM, Nov 10, 2024 UTC
I can wait 4 days - makes no difference to me.
JuliasCeasar 4:55AM, Nov 10, 2024 UTC
@Avalon. Let's resolve. OTOH, bitcoin is probably going to continue to appreciate.
JuliasCeasar 4:42PM, Nov 6, 2024 UTC
These results are not contested. We can go ahead and resolve.
praine 10:46AM, Nov 5, 2024 UTC
There you go. Have 0.208 more. I guess that does it for my BetMoose balance unless I re-fire. :D
praine 10:32AM, Nov 5, 2024 UTC
Damn, lemme think about it. You already hit my lay.
Trev625 10:30AM, Nov 5, 2024 UTC
I put a whole BTC on there just for kicks
Trev625 10:24AM, Nov 5, 2024 UTC
I'll lay it
praine 3:23AM, Nov 5, 2024 UTC
You guys keep out-bidding each other. I tell you what, you come up to 1.71 on Trump and I'll hit you with 0.2 instantly. It's the equivalent of me laying 2.4x on other.
praine 3:46AM, Nov 4, 2024 UTC
Nah, I'm willing to come up to Polymarket/Betfair for instant matches of .1 or more otherwise I'll just stay here. Polymarket is 2.24x and I'd do 2.25x here if you wanted to do some volume. Of course the markets are constantly changing (i.e. earlier Poly was only giving 2.16x) so you might want to add me on Discord so we can sync up in real time. This goes for anyone else who is interested in the same pursuit. Add me: _hatcher_
planetnine 3:18AM, Nov 4, 2024 UTC
2.5, however much you got
praine 5:53PM, Nov 3, 2024 UTC
@planetnine Ok, what do you want me to come up to and how much do you want to bet?
planetnine 1:49PM, Nov 3, 2024 UTC
praine I'll put more on kamala if you up the odds
nobody 6:55PM, Oct 26, 2024 UTC
Thanks Praine. I really hope Trump wins and it looks like he should but can't see these people giving up power simply because they lost an election. Not sure who I'm betting on yet.
praine 4:52AM, Oct 26, 2024 UTC
You see how everyone removed their offers for Joe Biden after he dropped out? It will be the same with the other options after the election concludes. Anyways, can I interest you in betting on Kamala?
nobody 10:21PM, Oct 25, 2024 UTC
This bet closes on Nov 14 but the election is on Nov 5. How does that work?
Avalon 6:57PM, Sep 1, 2024 UTC
@lhj use the contact form at the bottom or email support[at]betmoose.com
lhj 1:13AM, Aug 6, 2024 UTC
Can someone help me out? Sorry Im new here. My bets on the Biden Trump got cancelled and it says refunded but I havent gotten the refund yet. Do you get it when the bet was supposed to resolve or when its cancelled?
CapE 2:26AM, Aug 4, 2024 UTC
Do you think Trump can win the State of Pennsylvania? Consisdered a swing state, Pennsylvania might play a crucial role this election! https://www.betmoose.com/bet/24-presidential-election-winner-pennsylvania-6029
praine 5:14AM, Jul 25, 2024 UTC
If he doesn't become president then the bet loses. This bet makes no provisions to the manner in which one fails to become president. However, this bet is going the distance, and those that laid Biden cannot cash out prematurely. That means you still hold whatever equity Biden provides until the very end, even if the odds of him becoming president at this point are less than winning a major lottery.
Golhoneybadger 12:08AM, Jul 25, 2024 UTC
What about those who went ridin with biden do they lose the bet despite him dropping out?
Trev625 7:19AM, Jul 23, 2024 UTC
I actually prefer this style of bet but I went ahead and dropped a bunch on Kamala across all the different props
Avalon 2:30AM, Jul 23, 2024 UTC
We're keeping this one open as 2 of the 3 options are still valid. In addition, please note this bet will settle on Jan 6th, 2025 or later as per the logic.
praine 12:35AM, Jul 22, 2024 UTC
But if you want to be against Trump do it on this fresh bet where there is 0.56 BTC put on Trump that you can get a share of: https://www.betmoose.com/bet/usa-presidential-election-winner-2024-6017 And even more Trumpsters will bet after you increasing your odds further!
praine 10:13PM, Jul 21, 2024 UTC
I mean, it's there for the taking.
Trev625 9:16PM, Jul 21, 2024 UTC
How about I drop 1.25BTC of 1.4 odds for Trump?
leen93 12:59AM, Jul 20, 2024 UTC
JuliasCeasar. I can get you 1 btc for not biden, you 0.2 for biden? let me know
praine 2:08AM, Jul 19, 2024 UTC
Laid. ;)
JuliasCeasar 11:47PM, Jul 16, 2024 UTC
Whoah, volume! If someone makes an offer for Biden at 5, I'll redeposit and take it. I would hit other at 13'ish.
praine 8:14PM, Jul 12, 2024 UTC
Not really, since you were laying at great odds for yourself. However, I do see you also removed the 'Other' lay which is something I was keeping an eye on. That was looking more and more attractive as the days went on.
Trev625 8:22AM, Jul 11, 2024 UTC
Whew I lost a bunch of confidence in Biden and logged in here expecting to see all my offers taken since polymarket is showing $0.15 (I did technically a $0.28 down to $0.18 [1.4 odds down to 1.22]) but luckily nobody took them. That would've been almost 2 BTC down the drain :|

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