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U.S. Presidential Election Winner 2020
U.S. Presidential Election Winner 2020
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Description
What will be the result of the 2020 United States presidential election?
Decision Logic
The candidate that wins 270+ Electoral College votes at the 2020 presidential election will be settled as winner. Any subsequent events will have no effect on the settlement of this market.
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If no candidate wins 270+ Electoral College votes, we wait and the person chosen as President will be settled as winner.
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If Trump or Biden are replaced as candidates for any reason before the election this proposition will be settled as a Republicans vs Democrats proposition.
CLOSING IN2020-11-03 12:00:00
8:19PM, Oct 4, 2020 UTC
12:00PM, Nov 3, 2020 UTC
12:00PM, Nov 4, 2020 UTC
RESOLVED AT 7:54PM, Dec 6, 2020 UTC
Total Volume: 21.75
This bet has been resolved!
The outcome was "Biden"
21.74740381 was split between 46 bettors.
Trump
| Volume: | 14.00 |
| # of Bets: | 93 |
Biden
| Volume: | 7.751 |
| # of Bets: | 46 |
Discussion
kolotoure77294
10:23PM, Dec 7, 2020 UTC
Look, Trump was saying vote by mail was a fraud for months before the election and getting his supporters to vote in person. States like PA, MI, WI were not allowed to count mail in votes until after election day... It's no surprise when you count in person voters first Trump has a massive lead... and when you count the mail in votes Biden catches up... D'uh... Trump was telegraphing his plan to sow distrust in the election in PA, MI, WI for MONTHS!
endnoteacronym
10:11PM, Dec 7, 2020 UTC
I haven't heard any good counter agrument that swing states secretly counting ballots in the middle of the night is a "free and fair" election process.
Pnmuk
10:05PM, Dec 7, 2020 UTC
The first signal was vote count shutdown on election night in all swing states that's when trump lost all he's leads in those states now witness after witness is describing the drama that took place to cause trump lead to disapear, on january 6 the results will be indisputable by any side as the announcement will come official from the senate, let's be reasonable about this the bet happened in your stated timetable now the electoral vote and announcement must happen in the states timetable
endnoteacronym
10:00PM, Dec 7, 2020 UTC
@kolotoure77294 EXACTLY! The bet logic says "candidate that wins 270+ Electoral College votes" which is Dec 14 when electors cast their votes.
kolotoure77294
9:59PM, Dec 7, 2020 UTC
Is the Democrat circus the 7 million more voters Biden got than Trump?
kolotoure77294
9:57PM, Dec 7, 2020 UTC
We "SHOULD" wait till jan 6th... because scotus "MIGHT" tie it up till then?? They literally can't. Electoral college votes on 14th December. Let's see what happens tomorrow. And once someone "Reports" a settlement it stops the payout: "This bet has been forwarded to our moderators and will be resolved soon!"
Pnmuk
9:46PM, Dec 7, 2020 UTC
We should all wait for January 6 SCOTUS might tie all this up till then
Pnmuk
9:44PM, Dec 7, 2020 UTC
I bet like trump wouldn't lose I didn't see the democrat circus coming
Pnmuk
9:43PM, Dec 7, 2020 UTC
When you say payout has been stopped? Because the bet ticket says resolved
kolotoure77294
9:36PM, Dec 7, 2020 UTC
Did you bet more than you can afford to lose or something?
kolotoure77294
9:35PM, Dec 7, 2020 UTC
Why would they be worried, if Biden has won? Just wait for tomorrow dude, the payout has already been stopped, chill out.
Pnmuk
9:33PM, Dec 7, 2020 UTC
Why trigger early payment seeing everything that's happening it's as good as a bank heist
Pnmuk
9:30PM, Dec 7, 2020 UTC
I mean betmoose will be liable for early settlement
Pnmuk
9:30PM, Dec 7, 2020 UTC
The bet must be reversed and cleared on January 6 2021 otherwise you'll be liable for prepaying on the bet in advance before finalisation of the outcome
red-green
9:17PM, Dec 7, 2020 UTC
Its not called yet @Andyzzle maybe you should mind your business.
kolotoure77294
9:13PM, Dec 7, 2020 UTC
Arizona has a specific law banning faithless electors. "Arizona Revised Statute 16-212 states that presidential electors must vote for whichever presidential candidate earned the most votes."
kolotoure77294
9:12PM, Dec 7, 2020 UTC
Pennsylvania has chosen 20 electors who are all state or locally elected Democrats in pennsylvania. If Trump had won a different slate of electors would have been chosen and they would all be Republicans. You're out of your mind if you think they might just vote for Trump!
Andyzzle
9:05PM, Dec 7, 2020 UTC
I didn't bet on this but wow. Why was this called already? Just wait a few more days until the results are in and SCOTUS makes their decision. The decision logic doesn't even specify a date by which this needs to be decided. People voted on the outcome and you're calling it early. This kind of behavior takes all the fun out of betting.
kolotoure77294
9:05PM, Dec 7, 2020 UTC
you're making things up kardus. Under federal law the safe harbor deadline is the date for establishing the final results and it must occur six days before the Electoral College casts their votes. Since EC votes 14th, safe harbour is 8th and results will be final. In fact the safe harbor deadline also holds that Congress cannot challenge any electors named under state law by that date.
endnoteacronym
8:41PM, Dec 7, 2020 UTC
Its nice to see overnight constitutional lawyers on this site. The bet logic leaves too much room for interpretation for when to settle this. With everything going on, its best for both parties to just wait until electors to cast their votes.
kardus
8:27PM, Dec 7, 2020 UTC
Tomorrow's case does not unchangingly "decide" anything. Appeals, subsequent rejection of electors, pending official investigations, and faithless electors can supersede any safe harbour protections and prevent final EC votes. Of the contested states, the only ones that have specific laws binding electors are WI and MI, and fraud still vitiates this. The supreme court decision regarding binding electors does not apply to PA,AZ,GA, et al. Read the case law instead of linking laymen news articles.
Javan
8:23PM, Dec 7, 2020 UTC
@kolotoure77294 we will see what happens tomorrow. we should know by 12.pm est
kolotoure77294
8:02PM, Dec 7, 2020 UTC
Safe harbor day is important because by law Congress must count the certified rules from this day. Its game over day. There are lawsuits tomorrow, let's see what happens.
kolotoure77294
7:59PM, Dec 7, 2020 UTC
Gore was not ahead for 37 days. Bush won florida the first time. He won the recount and then the supreme Court ended it all on SAFE HARBOR DAY. source: https://constitutioncenter.org/amp/blog/on-this-day-bush-v-gore-anniversary
zargothrax
7:55PM, Dec 7, 2020 UTC
The 2000 election boiled down entirely to Florida, where the pre-recount vote margin was only about 1,700. This year, Arizona and Georgia are the closest, and their margins are 11,000 and 13,000 votes respectively. Even if those two states flipped, Biden would still be 20 votes ahead of Trump. This election is not as close as people make it out to be. Recounts wouldn't change anything, and the alleged fraud wouldn't be enough to overturn the election anyways.
Javan
7:36PM, Dec 7, 2020 UTC
@kolotoure77294
I think this makes a lot of since.
@Pnmuk it takes 3 days for the payout process to complete. If tomorrow Alitto rules that these questionable ballots are unconstitutional then I expect this bet to be reversed. If not then they have settled the bet as soon as possible (safe harbor). Tomorrow's case will decide this.
@Avalon my concern is that despite the safe harbor deadline, this could still be overturned.. in the case of the 2000 election gore was ahead for 37 days..
kolotoure77294
7:07PM, Dec 7, 2020 UTC
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1250205
#safeharbor
kolotoure77294
7:05PM, Dec 7, 2020 UTC
Source for that earlier comment please
Pnmuk
7:01PM, Dec 7, 2020 UTC
You said in an earlier comment that the litigation could run to January 20th so now your biden moderators have resolved disingenuously were not fools here
kolotoure77294
6:55PM, Dec 7, 2020 UTC
Who cheated? Bet logic is 270 EC votes won at election. Certification is the winning of EC votes. We're waiting for litigation to end now, if you're right then SCOTUS will overturn tomorrow...
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