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U.S. Presidential Election Winner 2020
U.S. Presidential Election Winner 2020
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Description
What will be the result of the 2020 United States presidential election?
Decision Logic
The candidate that wins 270+ Electoral College votes at the 2020 presidential election will be settled as winner. Any subsequent events will have no effect on the settlement of this market.
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If no candidate wins 270+ Electoral College votes, we wait and the person chosen as President will be settled as winner.
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If Trump or Biden are replaced as candidates for any reason before the election this proposition will be settled as a Republicans vs Democrats proposition.
CLOSING IN2020-11-03 12:00:00
8:19PM, Oct 4, 2020 UTC
12:00PM, Nov 3, 2020 UTC
12:00PM, Nov 4, 2020 UTC
RESOLVED AT 7:54PM, Dec 6, 2020 UTC
Total Volume: 21.75
This bet has been resolved!
The outcome was "Biden"
21.74740381 was split between 46 bettors.
Trump
| Volume: | 14.00 |
| # of Bets: | 93 |
Biden
| Volume: | 7.751 |
| # of Bets: | 46 |
Discussion
kolotoure77294
7:58AM, Dec 12, 2020 UTC
Least surprising news ever that the supreme court threw out the laughable lawsuit from Texas.
inanity
6:12AM, Dec 12, 2020 UTC
Agree with kolo that this should be settled on the 14th (or whenever Betfair settles since they have the exact same rules as this market and a billion+ wagered). The decision logic is impossible to lose at that point. After that it's a completely different wager, even though obviously nothing will change the outcome.
Pnmuk
5:38AM, Dec 12, 2020 UTC
We can't have scenerio where there is rushed resolution as if there's no activity going on about the election, let January 7 play out if trump loses I bow out, I could have quickly asked for the cancellation of bet when democrats held up voting in the swing states but I waited patiently we should all wait patiently for January 7
Pnmuk
5:35AM, Dec 12, 2020 UTC
Sidney Powell made emergency filings in Supreme Court tonight for Georgia & Michigan. Will be filing Arizona Wisconsin shortly. These cases raise constitutional issues and prove massive fraud.
Pnmuk
4:38AM, Dec 12, 2020 UTC
It's not optimistic it's obvious to the non corrupt, I mean look at all the witnesses it's obvious that there's a case
red-green
1:06AM, Dec 12, 2020 UTC
I have to say @Pnmuk you are a very optimistic person i can't hold you on that one. That spirit will help you alot in life. Not right now, but in general its very impressive.
red-green
1:02AM, Dec 12, 2020 UTC
@Pnmuk Don't you mean thats when everything will be clear to you? It's already clear to the rest of us. But we all have to cater to you for some reason. So yay lets indulge you for one more month
Pnmuk
12:50AM, Dec 12, 2020 UTC
Texas case was filed a few days ago there's other cases that have been in the pipeline by January 7 everything will be clear
jblndsl
12:44AM, Dec 12, 2020 UTC
+++MAGA in tears as supply of copium starts running low, Trump promises emergency use authorization of new Super Copium to keep hopes alive+++
red-green
12:42AM, Dec 12, 2020 UTC
Btw the SCOTUS case isn't about fraud.
red-green
12:39AM, Dec 12, 2020 UTC
Don't worry @Pnmuk I am already planning waiting til jan 20th just for you sweetheart.
Pnmuk
12:34AM, Dec 12, 2020 UTC
SCOTUS only refused to stop the certification process they didn't outright reject the case of fraud which is yet to be resolved
Pnmuk
12:30AM, Dec 12, 2020 UTC
There are more cases to come only the announcement in congress by Mike pence will be permanent
Pnmuk
12:20AM, Dec 12, 2020 UTC
Results will be known on January 7
Pnmuk
12:19AM, Dec 12, 2020 UTC
there is still a chance that Trump could secure victory via so-called "unfaithful electors" - if the Electoral College, set to meet on 14 December, decides to ignore their states' certified results and votes for Trump
red-green
12:18AM, Dec 12, 2020 UTC
ahahaah what did I say? Obviously that case was gonna get rejected so now lets hear some more complaining about how we still have to wait til jan 20th
Pnmuk
12:16AM, Dec 12, 2020 UTC
The court challenge happened before the electoral even so it doesn't count as subsequent because it has already happened, also there is possiblity of congress refusing to certify the electoral count it is best to wait for January 7 to resolve
kolotoure77294
11:09PM, Dec 11, 2020 UTC
@Avalon So why exactly would we need to wait for 6th Jan if the Electoral College gives more than 270 votes for either candidate on Monday? Especially with the subsequent events clause. There is no pleasing some people and whether you settle today, Monday, 6th Jan or 20th Jan, Biden is going to be president. Settle based on the Decision Logic which should be fulfilled inarguably on Monday. If it's not then I will be the first to say so.
praine
11:02PM, Dec 11, 2020 UTC
@Javan I'm not a Biden bro, lol. I was the first person to but a decent amount on Trump in this bet but Trump bettors and their conspiracy theories has caused me to shift my allegiances until I get paid. ;)
kolotoure77294
10:52PM, Dec 11, 2020 UTC
@Avalon And yes we will know how the electoral college votes on the day they vote. This is an article from 19th December 2016, the day the Electoral College voted Trump in. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/dec/19/electoral-college-votes-donald-trump-electors
kolotoure77294
10:51PM, Dec 11, 2020 UTC
@Avalon The electoral college votes on Monday. As long as one candidate receives 270+ votes then why can't this be settled on Monday once the results is known? This is the decision logic: "The candidate that wins 270+ Electoral College votes at the 2020 presidential election will be settled as winner. Any subsequent events will have no effect on the settlement of this market."
Javan
7:02PM, Dec 11, 2020 UTC
@praine we just don't want this to be called too early. Nothing about this election is normal.. as much as you Biden bros want to, we should wait until we know for sure to call this bet.. there is a chance the electoral college is irrelevant in the end (neither party gets 270) in which case the jan 7th deadline would again become premature.. worst case scenario we have to wait for congress to cast their 50 votes across the country.. I'm not sure when that would happen. My guess would be Jan 20th
praine
4:50AM, Dec 11, 2020 UTC
January 7th is consistent with what Avalon said earlier, and it's good to hear that reaffirmation.
praine
4:47AM, Dec 11, 2020 UTC
We know how Trump bettors love to keep moving the goal post. Thankfully for this bet there is no way to push it past inauguration day, but they will make new bets about how Trump will still 'win' even after Biden has been inaugurated, mark it.
red-green
4:04AM, Dec 11, 2020 UTC
Im already prepared to hear alot of complaining on the 4th and 5th about how January 20th is the day we have to settle. Is there any guarantee that the 7th is actually the day we will resolve this or does it depend on community feedback around then? Just wanna know for a friend.
Pnmuk
3:37AM, Dec 11, 2020 UTC
Thanks for clarifying avalon
Avalon
3:33AM, Dec 11, 2020 UTC
We will hold this resolution until January 7th when the final EC votes are counted. This is a formality and normally wouldn't be a contentious issue but due to the community feedback, we believe this is a necessary peace of mind.
praine
2:35AM, Dec 11, 2020 UTC
It's not resolved yet.
Tjacksun
2:06AM, Dec 11, 2020 UTC
Biden is not the new president yet.
The outcome is still undetermined.
This is an incorrect resolution
red-green
8:31PM, Dec 10, 2020 UTC
There is no luck involved
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