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U.S. Presidential Election Winner 2020
U.S. Presidential Election Winner 2020
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Description
What will be the result of the 2020 United States presidential election?
Decision Logic
The candidate that wins 270+ Electoral College votes at the 2020 presidential election will be settled as winner. Any subsequent events will have no effect on the settlement of this market.
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If no candidate wins 270+ Electoral College votes, we wait and the person chosen as President will be settled as winner.
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If Trump or Biden are replaced as candidates for any reason before the election this proposition will be settled as a Republicans vs Democrats proposition.
CLOSING IN2020-11-03 12:00:00
8:19PM, Oct 4, 2020 UTC
12:00PM, Nov 3, 2020 UTC
12:00PM, Nov 4, 2020 UTC
RESOLVED AT 7:54PM, Dec 6, 2020 UTC
Total Volume: 21.75
This bet has been resolved!
The outcome was "Biden"
21.74740381 was split between 46 bettors.
Trump
| Volume: | 14.00 |
| # of Bets: | 93 |
Biden
| Volume: | 7.751 |
| # of Bets: | 46 |
Discussion
kolotoure77294
8:47AM, Nov 24, 2020 UTC
This bet is for EC votes won "at the election" - this is settled when states certify and court cases end. Nothing will change after that and it's a fair resolution. Subsequent events are irrelevant. Trump will have given up before then anyway, he has now allowed the Biden transition.
kolotoure77294
8:43AM, Nov 24, 2020 UTC
In 2016 I ran this bet with the exact same terms and settled the bet the day after the election for Trump. No one complained, even though Trump won by the same EC margin, less votes in swing states and he lost the popular vote by 3m votes. Not one person complained.
red-green
5:21AM, Nov 24, 2020 UTC
@Pnmuk As far as I've seen the media has actually been pretty accurate when it comes to this election. Looks like trump supporters are the one's that are a little bit crazed...
Pnmuk
11:45PM, Nov 23, 2020 UTC
We would still wait for electoral vote count if Republicans had stopped counting votes in swing states like the democrats have just done and announcement of sketchy results by a crazed mainstream media, electoral count happens on 6 January 2021 quit agitating
TeamColtra
9:57PM, Nov 23, 2020 UTC
@Tuned you don't even have a public bet in this race.
TeamColtra
9:55PM, Nov 23, 2020 UTC
@kolotoure77294 obviously has a position but he's been incredibly fair and patient in this. I realize Betmoose is stepping in to do the final adjudication but honestly if Trump genuinely wins I would easily see him closing the bet for Trump. Having a position isn't being unfair, it's just having a position. He is a trusted bet maker.
Pnmuk
5:08AM, Nov 23, 2020 UTC
SCOTUS decision is the only one that can't be appealed before January 6 2021 and doesn't count as subsequent event
Pnmuk
4:44AM, Nov 23, 2020 UTC
6 January is electoral count date and announcement of that count no need to assume because of limited knowledge
zargothrax
12:50AM, Nov 23, 2020 UTC
I think the bet host made the best choice here. It's a compromise, but still completely logical. All the electors are chosen by December 8th since that's when legal disputes are over. It doesn't matter what you think, there aren't going to be any faithless electors or new election surprises after that.
Pnmuk
12:38AM, Nov 23, 2020 UTC
With all that's going on it's impossible to settle before 6 January as the result will be non disputable by then,
Tuned
10:28PM, Nov 22, 2020 UTC
@kolotoure77294 you are the bet host, act a little professional. Trump still has a chance to win so maybe try not to show such bias. Thank god you are not any kind of decision maker here.
kolotoure77294
8:28PM, Nov 22, 2020 UTC
Trump's unhinged legal team is giving me a good laugh though - what in the actual F - crying with laughter at these fools.
kolotoure77294
8:26PM, Nov 22, 2020 UTC
This will be settled - at the latest - on 8th December. Thank you all for your patience. 8th Dec is the deadline for legal challenges to be settled and all results will be certified. This is a bed about who wins the election and EC votes will be locked in at that point. Supreme Court voted 9-0 to not allow Electoral College electors to vote with freedom - they have to vote for who the people chose. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-electoral-idUSKBN2471TI
Pnmuk
7:16PM, Nov 22, 2020 UTC
Bet logic decrees electoral collage or whoever gets picked possibly by scotus or congress. Since the fraud is already a feature before the count
JeezusChrist
6:48PM, Nov 22, 2020 UTC
The question becomes... will Trump leave the White House peacefully? Or will he pull out a miraculous victory? Or will he declare Martial Law and stay in power? Trump backers should bet this wager: betmoose.com/bet/a-peaceful-transition-on-january-20-2021-5244
zargothrax
6:44PM, Nov 22, 2020 UTC
Plus, most of Trump's lawsuits have already been thrown out for not providing any substantial evidence of voter fraud. You can claim there's fraud all you want, but if the state supreme courts are dismissing it, then that's that. There is no fraud unless the courts say so. You're in denial if you still think Trump has any chance of flipping even a single state at this point.
zargothrax
6:43PM, Nov 22, 2020 UTC
The state certification chooses which party the elector comes from. You may like to think the election isn't over because it's all "just the media announcing winners" and state certification instead of the actual vote, but let's face it. The media announced Biden as the winner because the states have named him the winner. The states have already chosen which party's elector is voting, and like I said, there's not going to be any Democrat faithless electors.
zargothrax
6:38PM, Nov 22, 2020 UTC
Electors pledge to vote for their party's candidate. Faithless electors do not vote for the other party, they generally vote for another candidate from the same party. Like if the California elector voted for Sanders instead of Biden. But as it turns out, moderates and radicals alike are in solidarity for Joe Biden. Faithless electors will not have any significant impact this election. Since Trump can't even get full republican support, it's more likely he'll have faithless electors, if anyone.
Pnmuk
4:24PM, Nov 22, 2020 UTC
Electoral college votes are counted on January 6 2021 and the result is announced on the same day by senate leader Mike pence the bet is based on electoral college votes not state certification
d_d
11:53AM, Nov 22, 2020 UTC
@red-green if you believe that there certainly won't be any faithless electors, you might want to participate here: https://www.betmoose.com/bet/electoral-college-fail-5209#bets-1
So far it looks more like 46/54 to me.
red-green
3:32AM, Nov 22, 2020 UTC
The votes are certified by now in all states just recounts left and none of the electors are gonna go bad faith, so are we any closer to coming to terms with who the losers are here?? Or we still finna play these gayames.
TeamColtra
10:48PM, Nov 19, 2020 UTC
lol apparently "c​rap" is a banned word .
TeamColtra
10:47PM, Nov 19, 2020 UTC
As I have said, I've comfortably placed my money where my mouth is. An $18 bet on "Will Courts Overturn the 2020 Presidential Election" will turn into $72. Spewing useless **** is fine, but I'm not really interested in any opinions that don't step up and don't even believe their own **** enough to bet on it.
Javan
9:33PM, Nov 19, 2020 UTC
@TeamColtra the Trump path to victory is very clear.. This is going to SCOTUS very swiftly.. the media is doing everything in their power to muddy the waters and make the legal process look more like a steal itself.. If trump can flip georgia, WI and MI will follow and there will be riots! At this point I don't even care what happens, I'm just livid with the irresponsible reporting of all of the american news outlets..
fritz
7:24PM, Nov 19, 2020 UTC
https://youtu.be/CR1NP6R6pkE
https://youtu.be/5uOFFoF-Mgc
oh and i am just here for the memes. in the end it is betmoose who decides once all is clear.
fritz
7:13PM, Nov 19, 2020 UTC
in a recent poll 45% said trump should concede. many dems say he shouldn't. guess they voted for the man.
fritz
7:12PM, Nov 19, 2020 UTC
Now guess which dems have ownership of dominion voting software?
fritz
7:12PM, Nov 19, 2020 UTC
In other news some mafia gangster wants to come clear apparently for pulling of the biggest election heist of all time by delivering votes for biden as instructed by dems in PA
fritz
7:10PM, Nov 19, 2020 UTC
The Donald is going to win it.
The Dems messed up by doxxing some Rep's Children's School and now they took back their certification of Detroit and such, lmao.
TeamColtra
4:08PM, Nov 19, 2020 UTC
Okay @Thundy. In the end, it doesn't matter, the electoral college will vote next month and I'm going to take your money.
The only way that doesn't happen is if courts get involved. If you want to make a bet on that, click my profile and click the courts overturn election bet. I'm happy to take as much of your money as you want to put in. Obviously you think the evidence is clear, the bet upside if you're right is very high.
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