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U.S. Presidential Election Winner 2020

U.S. Presidential Election Winner 2020


What will be the result of the 2020 United States presidential election?

Decision Logic

The candidate that wins 270+ Electoral College votes at the 2020 presidential election will be settled as winner. Any subsequent events will have no effect on the settlement of this market.
If no candidate wins 270+ Electoral College votes, we wait and the person chosen as President will be settled as winner.
If Trump or Biden are replaced as candidates for any reason before the election this proposition will be settled as a Republicans vs Democrats proposition.

CLOSING IN2020-11-03 12:00:00

8:19PM, Oct 4, 2020 UTC

12:00PM, Nov 3, 2020 UTC

12:00PM, Nov 4, 2020 UTC

RESOLVED AT 7:54PM, Dec 6, 2020 UTC

Total Volume: 21.75

This bet has been resolved!

The outcome was "Biden"

21.74740381 was split between 46 bettors.
# of Bets:93
# of Bets:46


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Rocko 5:21PM, Nov 7, 2020 UTC
Hi, just to clarify this: “The candidate that wins 270+ Electoral College votes at the 2020 presidential election will be settled as winner. Any subsequent events will have no effect on the settlement of this market.” It mentions the first to officially get to 270+ and subsequents events have no effect. Basically, recounting and whatever else that will or could take effect should not be affecting this bet since it’s officially called by the Associate Press that Biden is at 290..
donuthole 5:14PM, Nov 7, 2020 UTC
Check out the Dominion voting system glitch, it looks like we're heading to a manual recount in all swing states. One county in Michigan had 3% of Trump votes go to Biden and if every county had the same glitch that would be over 250k votes in question in Michigan alone. The system was used in 30 states, including all the swing states.
TeamColtra 5:10PM, Nov 7, 2020 UTC
Thanks everyone for such a respectful chat. I was going to gloat a little bit but honestly this was just a lot of fun and i appreciate the experience, i hope everyone else has enjoyed this roller coaster.
TeamColtra 5:07PM, Nov 7, 2020 UTC
@Thundy want to bet on that? I'll open up a second bet that these results will reverse if you want to.
Thundy 5:06PM, Nov 7, 2020 UTC
Lawsuits incoming on Monday, plenty of witnesses, plenty of evidence. This is going to take a good while for the true results to come out.
Thundy 5:04PM, Nov 7, 2020 UTC
It's strange for AZ to be called so early when it's typically a red state and when the last remaining counties are strongly red and the remaining votes seem to favor Trump, GA will be getting a recount + military votes which should tip the state red. NC is turning red. Then all Trump needs WI/PA recount, there's a significant amount of fraud in these states, I've found countless fraudulent votes in both of them and have reported them. The results will change, for sure.
red-green 4:59PM, Nov 7, 2020 UTC
just waiting to see how long it takes for it to click in POTUS his head, so we all can move on and buy our ps5's.
jeb_bush 10:32PM, Nov 6, 2020 UTC
I just want to say I'm new to this community and I appreciate the spirited and generally respectful conversation :) @Thundy I'm not convinced by the fraud claims, but I'm glad you took the time to outline how you see it. I'm vrey happy to wait for "irrefutable" status of this: thgouh my instinct is that will be when the big networks (Fox / CNN / ABC etc) are all comfortable to call it. But if others want a different metric I'll be fine by whatever betmoose rules.
kolotoure77294 6:57PM, Nov 6, 2020 UTC
Game is almost over. We will wait for recounts (if they are pivotal) and legal challenges to run their course. Then it should be clear. If Trump concedes (not happening!) then we settle. I will be keeping an eye on other betting markets, like Betfair, to see when they settle their market (which has over $650m bet on it).
donuthole 6:11PM, Nov 6, 2020 UTC
@TeamColtra I'll take any loss on the chin and congratulate the victors, but this game is far from over.
TeamColtra 4:41PM, Nov 6, 2020 UTC
I don't want to engage in conspiracies because the terms of the bet don't include them. That said, let's say that there are 5,000 fraudulent votes (in the past decade there have only been ~150 confirmed fraudulent votes) Biden still wins. The amount of effort and risk it takes to cast a vote for a dead guy just doesn't make it worth it. The time you invest into that you could just do GOTV work and have better returns on your effort.
Thundy 4:15PM, Nov 6, 2020 UTC
I found plenty of more dead voters in NC as well and that's only in Durham county, there's dozens of other counties where fraud is being reported, there is no doubt in my mind that there is fraud on a large enough scale to tip this election. I've found prisoners myself that have voted in numerous counties for Biden, wait and you will see the evidence in court, 0.001% hah!
Thundy 4:12PM, Nov 6, 2020 UTC
@jeb_bush Yes... that's why you filter to Durham County and their birthday, which only produces 1 result. Shocking, I know. I've found well over 100 different names in GA, there's a confirmed recount that's going to be happening there. There will be various recounts in each state and with military votes taking until at least the 13th, this bet will be taking a good while to confirm.
TeamColtra 2:16PM, Nov 6, 2020 UTC
Also anyone who maxed out their card for a bet on either candidate is an idiot. They needed a plan b anyway because this race is very tight.
TeamColtra 2:15PM, Nov 6, 2020 UTC
@donuthole if it takes longer, it takes longer. Keep in mind, being contested only matters of there is some valid room. If Trump takes PA *and* GA *and* NV/AZ by more than a few points in each, then we can give it to him. If Biden wins either GA or PA by more than a couple percentage points and especially if he wins both it doesn't really matter of the president contests the election... He still contests the last election and he won it
donuthole 11:49AM, Nov 6, 2020 UTC
@Hodgkinson The last election wasn't contested, it was an outright clear win. Anyone that's done something silly like max out their credit card better come up with a Plan B because this is going to drag on for a long while yet. Nevada is counting up Nov 12 and that's without a recount or legal interventions.
Hodgkinson 11:41AM, Nov 6, 2020 UTC
@donuthole The bets on the last presidential election were resolved on November 10, so there is a precedent that it is going to be awarded on consensus rather than inauguration. I would just cool your jets for a few days and I think the results will become fairly clear.
donuthole 11:25AM, Nov 6, 2020 UTC
@TeamColtra you don't seem to understand that president *elect* isn't the same as president. Either way my point was we're in for a long wait of 70+ days, you can't contest who won after a president has been sworn in and the bet says 'president'.
TeamColtra 10:10AM, Nov 6, 2020 UTC
One final comment: let's let the votes be counted and see some final results. Trumps gaining ground in some states, losing ground in others. If the vote is within 1% then a recount might happen. This doesn't have to happen overnight, let's see what happens over the next few days as counting is finished and see how close the race actually is.
TeamColtra 9:52AM, Nov 6, 2020 UTC
I'm sure bet moose will issue some comment, but the reason i chose this bet over the fixed odds was because the Decision Logic is super clear. Read the terms of the bet, that answers your question.
TeamColtra 9:49AM, Nov 6, 2020 UTC
If either dies then it will be resolved by the party who won (per the rules). Also the wording is clear it's the candidate who reaches 270, them dying after the election does not change that. A dead congressman won a seat this election, he still won he just can't be sworn in. This shouldn't be confirmed on swearing in, just on 270+. That's the terms of the bet as written. If you wanted to bet on who gets sworn in that's the bet you should have taken.
donuthole 8:53AM, Nov 6, 2020 UTC
@Tuned you're right, this could go on for months and either candidate could have a heart attack meanwhile. To be certain we're probably going to have to wait until one has their hand on a bible, then they're officially president and that can't be contested.
Tuned 8:32AM, Nov 6, 2020 UTC
Can betmoose make a statement please. This is a close race, voting fraud is now part of the conversation, the opposing side of the winner may contest and do a recount. They could announce a winner in this week, and it could end up being decided in supreme court a month from now. Both candidates have stated they are going to fight this. Please clarify how you will resolve this for all presidential election bets.
TeamColtra 5:45AM, Nov 6, 2020 UTC
If a Repuban breaks into an elections office in Philadelphia and burns all the remaining mail in ballots and it causes Biden to lose... That is something i had to consider when placing my bet.
TeamColtra 5:43AM, Nov 6, 2020 UTC
Honestly, regardless of fraud (which there isn't any good evidence of), the terms of the bet do not require a fair election. The terms we all agreed to was the candidate to reach 270.
jeb_bush 1:36AM, Nov 6, 2020 UTC
@Thundy regarding your "handful of active prisoners" two things 1) I doubt a "handful" of anyone is going to satisfy > 0.001% mark 2) I searched a couple of those names you pasted and they all produced 6 or so records. In what I can only describe as shocking news, it turns out multiple people can have the same name. Any other "evidence" of voter fraud?
Hodgkinson 1:26AM, Nov 6, 2020 UTC
@donuthole I actually haven’t heard of that and google has let me down. What is it and how does it apply to the election results?
donuthole 1:16AM, Nov 6, 2020 UTC
Oh so you guys haven't heard of the built for purpose blockchain? Things are about to get spicy.
jeb_bush 12:45AM, Nov 6, 2020 UTC
lol er @donuthole how brown are my pants? I bet on Biden. They're crisp and fresh. But not as crisp and fresh as the new pants I'm going to buy with my winnings. Those are going to be some fresh pants.
Hodgkinson 12:25AM, Nov 6, 2020 UTC
Hmmm, I’m sensing quite a bit of panic on the trump side to be honest. This was the expected “red mirage” and I find it amazing the mental gymnastics people put themselves through that allows one group of supporters to chant “stop the vote” in one part of the country and “ count the vote” in another with no trace of irony. There has to be a small part inside of you guys that know he didn’t actually win, right?

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